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Thursday Night NFL Matchups Analysis: Week 4 Start/Sit for Fantasy Football

The Baltimore Ravens have had a rough start to say the least, starting 0-3 with three AFC losses and one AFC North division loss. With their backs against the wall, head coach John Harbaugh takes him team into Pittsburgh to face the Steelers on Thursday Night Football.

Fortunately for the Ravens, they’re facing Michael Vick instead of Ben Roethlisberger, who will be out for at least six weeks after leaving last week’s game with a knee injury. The injury obviously affects many parts of the Pittsburgh offense, with this week being the first where we get to see how the Steelers' offensive pieces produce with a different quarterback.

The Ravens pass-heavy attack isn’t working in terms of wins and losses, but neither is their rushing attack, which is ranked 28th in the NFL. But these AFC North rivalry battles always seem to entertain, and below is a preview of what’s to come in terms of fantasy impact.

 

Ravens @ Steelers - Matchups We Love

Antonio Brown: Antonio Brown’s ceiling may have dropped a notch with the injury to Ben Roethlisberger, but there’s no doubting the top fantasy wide receiver during the 2014 season, even with Michael Vick at quarterback. One would imagine that head coach Mike Tomlin would prioritize low-risk throws to get Vick going, including short completions to Brown. Brown has had double-digit targets in every game so far this season and had nine receptions twice to go along with 11 receptions last week. The Baltimore defense is not the Baltimore defense football fans used to know and love, and has given up at least 350 passing yards in their last two games.

I personally don’t think Brown will find the end zone this week, more due to the cautious play-calling of Tomlin if and when the Steelers get in the red zone or near the goal line, but he will get his, simply because he just always does. Brown caught 18 passes for 234 yards and a touchdown in his two games against Baltimore last season, so there’s no need to panic just yet.

Le’Veon Bell: Le’Veon Bell was considered a bell-cow running back even before the injury to Roethlisberger and one could only expect Tomlin to lean on his star running back even more during these six weeks. Baltimore has historically handled Bell well, holding him to only one receiving touchdown last season in their two matchups. But Bell’s two-game absence may play in his favor tonight, using those fresh legs to take on the burden of an extra workload. I’m leaning towards Bell surpassing the 20-point mark (PPR) tonight and find the end zone at least once.

Baltimore Defense: The Baltimore defense has had an interception every game this season and has two touchdowns in three games. I know the environment is tough and the aforementioned pass defense can be a bit leaky, but Vick didn’t look great coming in for relief duty last week and is always prone to a turnover or two. A double-digit point effort is possible for Baltimore’s defense tonight, who will enter tonight’s game against Pittsburgh in desperation mode.

 

Ravens @ Steelers - Matchups We Don't Love

Steve Smith Sr.: The entertaining ageless wonder is coming off back-to-back games with 16 targets, 10 receptions for 150 yards and 17 targets with 13 receptions for 186 yards and two touchdowns. In his self-declared final season, Smith has been the savior of the Ravens offense, as they truly do not have any other threat on the outside. With Forsett off to a slow start, the Ravens have had to chuck it with Joe Flacco, who has 32 attempts, 45 attempts and 49 attempts in his three games this season.

Unfortunately for Smith Sr., the Ravens haven’t been winning games. Even with the strong personal numbers, I have a feeling that head coach John Harbaugh is going to pound and grind this game out, even if the running game isn’t successful off the bat. For a 36-year-old wide receiver coming off a short week, I just don’t believe this is one of Smith Sr.’s strongest games this season.

 

Ravens @ Steelers - Prove It To Me Matchups

Justin Forsett: As I just mentioned, I like to think I know a thing or two about football. With the Ravens at 0-3, one would have to think Harbaugh isn’t enjoying letting Flacco drop back 35-40 times a game. After being held to 13 yards on 10 attempts last season against Pittsburgh, the head coach will stress the importance of a running game and things will be different tonight. I say Forsett finds the end zone for the first time this season and scores over 15 fantasy points.

 

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