RADIO
Brandon discusses five well-known fantasy hockey players who have not performed well heading into Week 4 of the 2026 season. Is it time to drop, sell, or hold?
Hey, RotoBallers! We are now officially in the fourth "full" week of the NHL season, and the dust has begun to settle. Fantasy managers are starting to identify potential breakout candidates and are growing concerned about many underperforming stars. However, while it's often more exciting to discuss the top early-season breakouts like Fraser Minten, we must also spotlight some of the early-season underperformers.
Below are five widely-rostered players across Yahoo leagues who have found themselves on the hot seat. We will do a deep dive on each player and determine if managers should drop, hold, or sell low on them ahead of Week 5.
Be sure to follow RotoBaller on X for all of our league-winning content and me @df_solutions. Also, use discount code SOLUTIONS for 50% off any Premium Packages and get access to our Team Sync platform with customized lineup tools, projections, and more based on your league settings. Let's dive in! Note: All statistics referenced are updated as of Monday, October 19.
NHL Metrics Glossary
ixG = Individual Expected Goals
iSCF = Individual Scoring Chances For
iHDCF = Individual High-Danger Chances For
xGF/60 = Expected Goals For Per 60
SCF/60 = Scoring Chances For Per 60
HDCF/60 = High-Danger Chances For Per 60
Fantasy Hockey Drop, Hold, or Sell Low
Rickard Rakell (C, LW, RW) - Pittsburgh Penguins
Rickard Rakell is in a tricky spot. The veteran hybrid forward has two years left on his current contract with the Pittsburgh Penguins. He produced little before Monday night's loss to the Utah Mammoth (one goal and one assist). This season, Rakell has produced one goal, three assists, 24 shots on goal, two power-play points, and seven blocked shots.
Many would assume someone of Rakell’s stature would produce more alongside Sidney Crosby.
In his four-and-a-half seasons with the Pittsburgh Penguins, Rakell has posted 60-plus points twice. This season has started slowly, though. The winger is in the top 70 in Expected Goals For Per 60, but outside the top 100 in Scoring Chances For Per 60. Even more surprising, he is producing 1.18 Individual Expected Goals For Per 60, suggesting he is making an impact when on the ice.
Additionally, Rakell has generated a 55% Corsi%, which is right in line with his career marks, and holds a -2.6 Goals Above Expected per MoneyPuck.com, suggesting he should enjoy some positive regression.
Regardless, Rakell is auditioning not only to stay with the Penguins, but also to impress any teams looking to acquire veteran help. It is no secret that the Penguins are actively shopping their veterans to make room for their youth.
Given Rakell’s ability to produce in the right environment, he is a recommended hold for now. A change of scenery could greatly benefit his fantasy outlook.
Verdict - Hold
Brayden Point (C) - Tampa Bay Lightning, Rostered 90%
Similar to last season, Brayden Point has been demoted to the second line for the Tampa Bay Lightning. In his first eight games, he has managed one goal, five assists, 16 shots on goal, and three blocked shots.
Point sits just outside the top 100 in Expected Goals For Per 60 (2.93) and in the top 70 in Scoring Chances For Per 60 (30.4). Additionally, when you compare his Corsi% and Fenwick% to his 2025 marks, the veteran forward has been even more impressive.
| Stat | Corsi% | Fenwick% |
| 2025 | 60% | 59% |
| 2026 | 63% | 65% |
This is an ideal buy-low candidate. It is still very early in the season, and since Point has already been demoted from the top unit, his price is likely even cheaper.
Furthermore, Point remains one of the primary playmakers on the Lightning's top power-play unit. If these underlying metrics begin to kick-start some positive regression, Point will soon return to the top forward line. When Point was on the top line with Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel, they generated a dominant 3.8 xGoals For Per 60.
While he may not be the 40-goal scorer he was a few seasons ago, Point can still be a nightly contributor in a productive Tampa Bay offense.
Managers currently rostering Point should view him as a must-hold candidate and should not consider sending him to the waiver wire. Buying "low" on him now, while managers panic over his demotion, is the ideal move for the long game. Fantasy hockey is a marathon, not a sprint.
Verdict - Hold
Quinton Byfield (C) - Los Angeles Kings
Speaking of demotions, Quinton Byfield is another player who got demoted. Since his two-point night, a goal and an assist in the 5-4 overtime loss to the Sharks on October 3, Byfield has not registered a point. In his six appearances this season, he has produced those two noted points, 14 shots on goal, and two blocked shots. This slump resulted in Alex Laferriere replacing him as the team's top center.
The season is not shaping up well to start, especially for someone the Kings want and need to rely on offensively. Byfield is the Kings' heir to the 1C after Anze Kopitar retired last year but has been unable to fill that void.
Unfortunately, Byfield is not producing enough quality opportunities or chances to make a difference. He ranks in the top 200 in Expected Goals For Per 60 (2.8) and in the top 100 in Scoring Chances For Per 60 (29.89).
Furthermore, he is producing under 1.00 Individual Expected Goals For Per 60, which are not ideal marks for a potential No. 1 center.
Because he still skates on the No. 1 power-play unit, he maintains some value in deeper leagues that keeps him from being an outright drop. He is a sell-low candidate ahead of Week 5 and is quickly trending towards drop territory.
Verdict - Sell-Low
Robert Thomas (C) - St. Louis Blues
The St. Louis Blues' top center has one goal, three assists, nine shots on goal, zero power-play points, and five blocked shots to start the season. While those marks are not awful, he has underperformed relative to his ADP.
However, unlike Byfield, Thomas ranks in the top 50 in Scoring Chances For Per 60 (32.29)and is just outside the top 100 in Expected Goals For Per 60 (2.94).
Overall, the Blues are producing very little outside the second line. Positive regression is their friend, and it will come sooner rather than later.
In fact, the entire top line in St. Louis is due for some positive regression. Thomas, Dylan Holloway, and Jimmy Snuggerud have generated an 85.7% xGoals%, which not only leads the team but is also the fourth-highest among forward lines who have logged more than 10 minutes of ice time.
Once Thomas and the rest of the Blues top line start clicking, things will only go up from there. The veteran center is the ideal buy-low candidate. Like Point, it is too early to panic as Thomas' underlying metrics remain very strong. He is a firm hold entering Week 5.
Verdict - Hold
Victor Hedman (D) - Tampa Bay Lightning
Hedman, who was once the Lightning's top defenseman and a yearly Norris candidate, has been pushed down the pecking order since the organization signed John Carlson in the offseason.
In his eight games this season, Hedman has managed one goal, two assists, 11 shots on goal, and 11 blocked shots.
However, what has been detrimental to his fantasy value is his time on ice. Through eight games, the veteran blue-liner has averaged 14:08 TOI/G, which is not only on pace to be the lowest of his career, but a four-minute drop from last season. He has also averaged just 18 seconds of power-play time nightly, after seeing at least two minutes per game in every season of his career.
Instead, Carlson and Charle-Edouard D'Astous have carried much of the power-play load.
Unless Tampa Bay’s blueline suffers injuries, Hedman's chances of a bigger role remain slim to none. Given the veteran defenseman’s inability to generate points (due to his time on ice), he is a safe drop candidate in all formats.
Verdict - Drop
More Fantasy Hockey and Analysis
