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Andrew Ball's risky fantasy football quarterback draft picks to target or avoid. Fantasy football quarterback (QB) sleepers and busts analysis for 2026.
Even the best prospects in fantasy football have downsides, whether it's injury concerns, a below-average offense, or competition for playing time.
The middle rounds are when the scale begins to tip in the risks' favor. The players with minimal risk are off the board, and it's time to select from the imperfect bunch.
In this series of articles, we'll weigh the pros and cons of some middle-to-late round players at each position and determine which are worth the risk on draft day. Below are four quarterbacks that may -- or may not -- outperform their ADP.
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Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
How much stock should we put into end-of-season momentum? Outside of a small stretch of games, Trevor Lawrence hasn't been the promised, generational quarterback talent thus far.
Pros: Does Jacksonville have the best wide receiver room in football?
There are teams with better top-end duos (i.e., Cincinnati, Los Angeles, Dallas, etc.), but there's not a room as deep as the quartet in northern Florida. There's the young, downfield threat (although he had a down sophomore season) in Brian Thomas Jr., the steady veteran in Jakobi Meyers, a blossoming slot receiver in Parker Washington, and the ultra-talented Travis Hunter, who had his first 100-yard game just before his rookie season ended prematurely.
Coupled with an inexperienced, albeit hopeful running game, Lawrence projects to have plenty of opportunities to build upon his increased late-season efficiency. Despite slightly fewer attempts per game, the former first-overall pick averaged more than three touchdowns (including rushing) over his final seven games, en route to 26.3 fantasy points per game. That was more than four points better than the QB2, Matthew Stafford, in that window.
2025 was also Lawrence's best season as a runner, with career-highs in yards, attempts, and touchdowns. It's starting to be a pattern in Liam Coen offenses. The former Tampa Bay offensive coordinator unlocked Baker Mayfield's rushing prowess, and now appears to be doing the same with Lawrence. Using his 6'6" frame, Lawrence pushed over the pile for four rushing touchdowns from the one-yard line.
Cons: Touchdown regression is obviously at play. In that seven-game stretch, Lawrence had an 8.1% passing touchdown rate. His career average is 3.8%.
Everything before the Jaguars' bye week was shades of the previous four seasons: turnover troubles, a low completion percentage, and suboptimal fantasy production. What's more telling: 4.5 seasons of mediocrity or 0.5 seasons of MVP-level play?
Not for nothing (although you'll certainly need him to get there), Lawrence draws the top-rated Houston defense in the first round of the fantasy playoffs. He has more interceptions (11) than passing touchdowns (8) in 10 career games versus the Texans.
Verdict: I'm banking on the continuity in both personnel and scheme in Jacksonville. Coen's proven system even made Will Levis look good in college.
Don't expect the absurd fantasy points per game that Lawrence scored toward the end of the season, but he's the QB10 in ADP with clear top-5 upside. That's a gamble worth taking. If he reverts to early-career Lawrence, the QB rankings are full of weekly streaming options.
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Despite leading Denver to the top seed in the AFC and finishing as a QB1 in consecutive seasons, there are plenty of Bo Nix skeptics in the world.
Pros: Volume is king in fantasy football, and Nix handled a massive amount of opportunities.
Nix led the NFL in pass attempts (612, 36 per game) after tossing 33.4 per game in his rookie season (sixth). The Broncos play at a brisk pace (third in plays per game) and didn't have much of a running game after the injury to J.K. Dobbins. Nix finished no worse than eighth in deep ball attempts, red zone attempts, passing yards, and air yards.
Denver bolstered its wide receiver room, which already had plenty of interesting pieces, by trading for Miami's Jaylen Waddle this offseason. He'll join the reliable Courtland Sutton in two-receiver sets. The young trio of Marvin Mims Jr., Troy Franklin, and Pat Bryant bring unique skillsets to the third-receiver rotation.
He's no Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen, but Nix gets a rushing boost that other quarterbacks in his ADP range don't. The 2024 first-round pick averages 5.1 carries for 23.1 yards per game in his career, with nine rushing scores to boot.
Cons: Keep an eye on how his legs look this preseason. Nix fractured his ankle at the very end of Denver's playoff win over Buffalo and had a cleanup procedure in April. He claims it won't impact his scramble ability, but it's fair to be skeptical.
Bo Nix's full quote when asked if he'll run less now that he's coming off his ankle injury that ended his season:
“Absolutely not. I’m going to roll, and I’m going to be as athletic as I can be. Like the earlier question, it’s a strength of ours and we have to use our strengths.…
— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) August 1, 2026
Although he averaged better than four deep ball attempts per game, Nix was 31st in yards per attempt (6.4) and 26th in air yards per attempt (7.3). The intermediate concepts are still works in progress. He completed fewer than half of his attempts between 10-19 yards and posted more interceptions than scores. Essentially, his game is a burst of short attempts with the occasional deep ball mixed in.
What does the Denver offense look like with a healthy running back stable (it's a big ask, I know)? Will it be a more balanced approach that drops Nix from the first-in-attempts to the 6-10 range?
Verdict: Much of Nix's outlook hinges on Waddle. He was already at his ceiling in the volume department. If Waddle can help improve his efficiency, a third-straight QB1 finish is well within reach. Right now, he's outside of that department in ADP. There's a high floor with passing volume and rushing. It'll be tough to go wrong with Nix as a starting fantasy quarterback.
Be warned, though. Denver's first six games -- at Kansas City, Jacksonville, Los Angeles Rams, at San Francisco, at Los Angeles Chargers, and Seattle -- are about as tough as a schedule can get. Maybe he's a quarterback to acquire after the early-season onslaught.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Playing through an injury derailed Baker Mayfield's tenure in Cleveland. Is it now a bugaboo in his contract negotiations, or lack thereof, with the Buccaneers?
Pros: For a minute, Mayfield looked like he was carrying the momentum from 2024 into the 2025 season. Through the first six weeks, the 31-year-old was QB4 and an MVP frontrunner. Injuries may have caused his fall-off.
A sprained AC joint is the only ailment that officially appeared on an injury report. However, the Netflix documentary Quarterback revealed several other issues, including a sprained MCL and PCL that he managed throughout the regular season. A healthy Mayfield could far exceed his average draft position.
Cons: 4.1, 3.0, 4.9, 7.2, 4.8.
Those are Mayfield's touchdown rates over his last five seasons. Two numbers stand out: the 3% in his split Carolina-Los Angeles campaign and the 7.2% in 2024. Sandwiched around his QB3 season were pedestrian touchdown rates and a pair of QB19 finishes. All data metrics point to that season being an anomaly.
He'll now need to regain that touchdown efficiency without the services of Mike Evans. The longtime Buccaneer and one of the best red-zone threats of the last decade is now in the Bay Area. The wide receiver trio of Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin Jr., and Jalen McMillan is exciting. Still, they're all four inches shorter than Evans, and not nearly as dangerous around the goal line.
For the fourth time in as many years, Mayfield has a new offensive coordinator in his headset. Zac Robinson is a Sean McVay disciple, but his Falcons were average, or worse, in his two seasons calling plays.
Verdict: The narrative currently floating around social media is that Mayfield, who is now playing for a new contract, will go scorched earth this season. Did that happen when he was falling out of NFL favor in Carolina? Outside of the fourth-quarter comeback in his first game as a Ram, the answer is no.
Mayfield is currently the QB18 in ADP, essentially throwing him in the same bucket as Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, and Jordan Love -- QB2s that have one or more QB1 seasons under their belts. I'd bet on Goff or Purdy repeating as a QB1 over Mayfield, but the latter will have plenty of weeks in the streaming conversation.
Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints
An underheralded, elder statesman upon entering the league, Tyler Shough turned the Saints from a bottom-dweller into a competitor, while becoming an appealing streaming candidate in fantasy football.
Pros: Tempo, tempo, tempo.
The New Orleans Saints played at the fastest pace in football last season. It's a staple of a Kellen Moore offense, and part of the reason his quarterbacks have missed out on a QB1 finish just once since he became an offensive coordinator.
| Quarterback | Fantasy Points Per Game (Rank) |
| Dak Prescott (2019) | 21.8 (QB3) |
| Dak Prescott (2020) | 27.7 (QB1)* |
| Dak Prescott (2021) | 20.7 (QB9) |
| Dak Prescott (2022) | 17.8 (QB15) |
| Justin Herbert (2023) | 18.5 (QB11) |
| Jalen Hurts (2024) | 21.3 (QB6) |
| Tyler Shough (2025) | 17.6 (QB12)** |
* five games
**when Shough became a starter in Week 9 through Week 18
Compressing the window makes Shough's late-season surge even more impressive. In his final eight games, Shough averaged 260 passing yards while completing over 70 percent of his attempts. He scored two touchdowns in five of those eight games.
Some of those scores came on the ground, which was one of the bigger surprises of Shough's game. And it wasn't just of the 'Oh shoot, I'm running for my life' variety. There were a couple of designed runs per game for the 26-year-old. In the end, he averaged 18.6 ground yards per game. It may not seem like a lot, but it's nearly an extra two points per game.
The Saints' brass liked what they saw in Shough and began building the offense around him this offseason. Jordyn Tyson, who some analysts labeled as the best receiver in the class, was picked with the eighth selection in April's NFL Draft. Last year's wide receiver room was essentially Chris Olave or bust. Rashid Shaheed, who wasn't even on the roster by the time Shough was named the starter, was the only other Saints wideout over 300 yards.
Running back Travis Etienne Jr. was also added to the roster, giving Shough another receiving threat out of the backfield.
Cons: In the final seven games of the season, Shough averaged 34.8 pass attempts. It's amazing volume and would have finished inside the top five if stretched out across the entire season. But was Shough's emergence circumstantial?
Week 12 was the first game without Alvin Kamara. As inefficient as the aging running back was last season, he was a preferred option to Devin Neal, Audric Estime, or whoever the Saints were forced to line up in the backfield. Etienne's presence may help the offense as a whole, but better backfield efficiency is likely to cost Shough some dropbacks.
It may have been a product of inexperience, but Shough posted a subpar 3.1% touchdown rate, in large part, due to Moore's playcalling. As New Orleans neared the goal line, the Saints dialed up a run play instead of putting the ball into the hands of their 26-year-old rookie. Inside the 20, he was on fire, converting seven of his 12 completions into scores. Inside the 10? He had just three attempts total.
Verdict: In years past, Shough likely scoots into high-end QB2 territory, if not a little higher. This year, it's a loaded quarterback crop. The Saints' signal-caller is 20th in ADP.
I love Shough's upside, and he's free. He begins the season against a Detroit team that has a shaky defense and will score plenty of points. If you're willing to stream the position, there aren't many options better than Shough in Week 1.
Point is, and it's really the thesis of this entire article, don't take a quarterback early this summer! From Lawrence to Nix to Shough and nearly every name in between, let the quarterback position be selected for you, not the other way around.
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