9 League-Winning Fantasy Baseball Pitchers: Jamie Steed's High-Upside Draft Targets

March 23, 2026

Jamie Steed's 9 league-winning pitchers, fantasy baseball breakouts, values, studs to provide massive return on value in 2026 including Dylan Cease, Sandy Alcantara, Daniel Palencia, more.

A key to any fantasy draft is finding players who ultimately outperform expectations. Every year, pitchers like Hunter Brown get taken as SP3s but end up as top-10 starters, or rookies like Nolan McLean, who go undrafted and then find themselves drafted as an SP2 the following year.

Finding value after the first few rounds can play a massive part in any success you have. In this piece, I will spotlight my top league-winning pitchers using Yahoo! ADP (Average Draft Position). They might be a highly-touted prospect, an overlooked veteran, or someone set to bounce back after a disappointing year.

Whatever the reason, they are set to deliver considerable value on their ADP. Don't forget to download our free mobile app with alerts and to follow the RotoBaller team on X for all your offseason news and articles.

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Dylan Cease, SP, Toronto Blue Jays

Yahoo! ADP: 70

I've been riding the Good Ship Cease all Spring and am fully expecting a return to SP1 status. It's a testament to Cease that even after last year's struggles, he's still going as early as he is in drafts. In 2025, Cease had an 8-12 W-L record, 4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 215 Ks (168 innings).

That was Cease's fifth consecutive year of making 32+ starts and a fifth consecutive year of 200+ strikeouts. No other pitcher can boast of achieving either. That floor alone is what makes Cease appealing in fantasy. If we add in that his ERA is set to be considerably better in 2026, you'll see why he'll be an SP1 again.

In 2024, Cease had a 3.47 ERA, 3.44 xFIP, and 3.46 SIERA. His ERA almost matched what we would expect it to have been. Last year, Cease had a 3.56 xFIP and 3.58 SIERA. Both being considerably better than his ERA highlights just how unlucky Cease was in 2025.

Despite the bad luck, Cease was consistent last year. As we can see from the graph below, there wasn't a big fluctuation in his ERA or xFIP throughout the season. Where we would normally expect the two lines to close the gap, they just didn't.

If Cease's ERA were ~3.50 in 2025, he'd be going as an SP1 this year. The Blue Jays should help Cease win plenty of games, too. If you stack up on hitters in the early rounds and wait until you take a starting pitcher, Cease ticks all the boxes for helping you build a league-winning rotation.

MacKenzie Gore, SP, Texas Rangers

Yahoo! ADP: 144

Gore is similar to Cease, albeit not quite at his level. He's on a better team this year than in 2025, so he should win more games. He strikes out a lot of hitters (27.2% K% in 2025). And Gore has stayed relatively healthy, making 62 starts over the last two seasons.

The main reason I like Gore so much in 2026 is that he should also see a significant drop in his ERA. Last year, Gore had a 4.17 ERA, which was up from 2024 (3.90 ERA). In 2024, Gore had a 3.87 xFIP and 3.98 SIERA. In 2025, Gore had a 3.78 xFIP and 3.80 SIERA. He should have had a better ERA last season.

Add in that Gore also increased his strikeout rate by 2.4 percentage points and was in the 80th percentile for K%, everything points towards Gore being an outstanding fantasy option in 2026. The X-factor for Gore is his new home ballpark.

Last year, Nationals Park was MLB's 11th-most hitter-friendly ballpark (according to Statcast). The Rangers' Globe Life Field was the least hitter-friendly ballpark in the league. Gore didn't have excessively high home run rates in 2025 (11.6% HR/FB and 1.13 HR/9), but he should benefit plenty from pitching in Texas.

Gore is currently around the 40th-45th starting pitcher being drafted. If he can lower his ERA to ~3.60, which should be possible with a bit more luck and a better home ballpark, then Gore will be closer to the SP2 range than he currently is. Gore is in too good a situation not to outperform his ADP.

Daniel Palencia, RP, Chicago Cubs

Yahoo! ADP: 156

Every league varies. In some drafts, closers are more valued than others. I've been in some drafts where the first closer gets taken in the second round. I've been in another where no closer was taken until the sixth round. However you approach saves in your leagues, finding value is still key.

And Palencia could have more value than any other reliever in fantasy. He's generally been the 15th closer taken in drafts. Given Josh Hader's biceps injury and Carlos Estevez's spring issues, Palencia can be bumped up a bit more. If it weren't for the lack of experience, he could be bumped up a lot more.

Palencia was anointed as the Cubs' 2026 closer before spring training began. He's gone on to have an outstanding preseason, including dominating in the World Baseball Classic (WBC). Palencia fired five scoreless innings, didn't allow a hit, and recorded the final out as Venezuela won it all.

TEAM VENEZUELA 🇻🇪
CHAMPS 🏆#WORLDBASEBALLCLASSIC pic.twitter.com/1hDTJWcI5V

— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 18, 2026

There's no reason to believe that Palencia can't carry that momentum into the regular season. Last year's 2.91 ERA wasn't a fluke, evidenced by his 3.06 SIERA. Palencia's 28.4% K% ranked in the 86th percentile, and his 2.70 ERA in save situations showed he can cope with the pressures of closing.

As a team, the Cubs recorded 44 saves in 2025 (ninth most). Palencia was responsible for half of them. He should be able to tally many more saves in 2026. Whether you take a closer early or not, Palencia's upside is that of a top-5 reliever in 2026. He should be near the top of everyone's wishlist in drafts.

Sandy Alcantara, SP, Miami Marlins

Yahoo! ADP: 152

After missing all of 2024 following Tommy John Surgery (TJS), we didn't know what to expect from Alcantara last year. Unsurprisingly, he got off to a rough start, and his numbers at the end of the year were uninspiring. In 31 starts, Alcnatara had an 11-12 W-L record, 5.36 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 142 Ks.

What should also be unsurprising is that Alcantara got better as the season went on. If we break down his 2025 (below), we can see that Alcantara's numbers were considerably better in the second half of the season.

It's widely regarded that control takes time to return following Tommy Johhn. So it was encouraging that Alcantara improved his walk rate and strikeout rate as the season went on. It's also encouraging that Alcantara threw 174 2/3 innings last year. He's set to be a workhorse again in 2026.

Alcantara won't return to his 2022 Cy Young Award level. If he's able to repeat his 2025 second half over a full season, Alcantara will have no problem outperforming his ADP. If you stacked up with strikeouts earlier in the draft, Alcantara's steady production will be able to anchor the rotation.

Kris Bubic, SP, Kansas City Royals

Yahoo! ADP: 207

The Bubic hype bubble of 2025 burst in late July when a rotator cuff strain landed him on the Injured List (IL). Until that time, he was a legit Cy Young Award candidate. In 20 starts, Bubic had an 8-7 W-L record, 2.55 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 116 Ks (116 1/3 innings).

Bubic did have a 3.63 xFIP and 3.85 SIERA when he went on the IL, so regression was expected. He was still on track for a special season. As we can tell from his ADP, Bubic isn't expected to have a special season in 2026. That's not to say he won't provide value on his ADP.

Bubic has yet to top 130 innings in a Major League season. When he did throw 130 innings, it was in 2021. After undergoing TJS in 2023, last year was actually a step forward. Although Bubic has yet to prove he can be a full-time starter over an entire season, even a small step forward this year will be significant.

The Royals are likely to tread carefully with Bubic's workload. He's still only 28 years old and hopefully can make the most of his prime years. If he can remain off the IL, Bubic's upside is that of an SP2. Even 25 starts will make Bubic a good pick outside of the top-200, when you can afford to take risks.

Griffin Jax, RP, Tampa Bay Rays

Yahoo! ADP: 196

I fully get the concern about relying on the Rays for saves. They've hardly been the most fantasy-friendly team in recent years, given the way they utilize their bullpen and starting pitchers. But what if I told you that only 12 pitchers recorded more saves than Pete Fairbanks last year?

That's right, Fairbanks was responsible for 77% of the Rays' saves in 2025. Eric Orze (three) and Garrett Cleavinger (two) were the only other members of the Rays bullpen to tally more than one save.

The only knock on Jax is that the Rays only had 35 total saves in 2025. That was a big drop off from 2024, when they recorded 51 saves. Then, Fairbanks was responsible for 23 of them, although he missed more than eight weeks due to injuries.

With Edwin Uceta dealing with a shoulder issue, Cleavinger looks the most likely to compete with Jax for saves. But Jax appears to be the best candidate for the role. He had a 3.60 ERA with the Rays last year (20 innings), after having a 4.50 ERA (46 innings) with the Twins before being traded.

The fact that the Rays were willing to send starting pitcher Taj Bradley to Minnesota for Jax shows how highly they rated him. Bradley wasn't great, but he had made 21 starts with a 4.61 ERA for the Rays at that point.

Jax also had a 1.79 xFIP and 2.08 SIERA with the Twins, so he had been unlucky in Minnesota. Jax also gets to pitch at Tropicana Field this year, which should help all Rays pitchers, after calling hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field their home in 2025.

There's no denying Cleavinger's excellence in 2025. He had a 2.35 ERA in 61 1/3 innings. While he will factor into the saves mix, being a left-handed pitcher (LHP) will lead to more matchup usage before the ninth inning. Jax should be the front-runner for saves and could match Fairbanks' total from 2025.

Jax also has the benefit of being a high-strikeout pitcher. He's got a 34.7% K% since 2024 and has 194 total strikeouts over the last two seasons. Jax's strikeout capability also lends itself to closing out tight games.

What Jax might lack in saves, he'll make up for in strikeouts and should certainly be taken earlier in drafts than his ADP. If he does end up being the predominant closer in Tampa Bay, like Fairbanks was, Jax has the potential to be a top 10 closer in fantasy.

Ryan Weathers, SP, New York Yankees

Yahoo! ADP: 207

At this point in a draft, you're likely swinging for the fences and hoping the upside picks pay off. Weathers' upside could pay off more than most. The problem has been his health, with just 24 starts and 125 innings in the majors over the last two years.

The Yankees have taken a chance on Weathers, and fantasy managers should too. Moving from Miami to the Bronx instantly increases Weathers' chances for wins. That alone is enough to boost his fantasy value.

Over the previous two seasons, Weathers had a 3.74 ERA with a 4.03 xFIP and 4.00 SIERA. Even if he can't perform better when fully healthy, a 4.00 ERA from a pitcher this late in the draft isn't bad at all. Especially when you factor in that Weathers has struck out nearly one batter per inning over the last two seasons (117 Ks).

Weather has been confirmed as a member of the rotation to start the season with Gerrit Cole (elbow) and Carlos Rodon (elbow) both on the injured list.

The Yankees have been able to get plenty out of their pitchers in recent seasons, and Weathers shouldn't be an exception. If he can keep off the IL, Weathers could be one of the best starters in the first few weeks of the season. He could extend that throughout the entire season and seriously improve fantasy managers' chances of success.

While his ADP has begun to rise, he carries solid upside at this price tag.

Kyle Harrison, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

Yahoo! ADP: Undrafted in standard leagues

We've reached the point of a draft when you're just adding a complete flyer to your roster. While it's more in hope than expectation that Harrison is fantasy viable in 2026, there is still sound reasoning for this pick. The Brewers seem to get the best out of pitchers. More so than any other team.

It wasn't that long ago that Harrison was the number one prospect in the Giants' system. And he's not had a bad major league career to this point. Harrison has 194 2/3 innings in the majors, with a 9-9 W-L record and a 4.39 ERA. If the Brewers can work their magic, that ERA will drop below 4.00.

Harrison has been dealing with a blister issue recently. However, it doesn't look set to prevent him from making his first regular-season start with the Brewers.

Pat Murphy said he doesn’t expect Kyle Harrison’s schedule to be altered by more than a day by this blister issue. pic.twitter.com/qBnIeFwlRE

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) March 18, 2026

With his prospect pedigree and a new home that works wonders with their pitching, Harrison is one of my favourite breakout options for 2026. It won't cost more than your last pick of the draft to find out if he does finally live up to his prospect hype with the potential for a huge payoff.

Ian Seymour, SP/RP, Tampa Bay Rays

Yahoo! ADP: Undrafted in standard leagues

Seymour is set to start the season in the minors. But he's also the most likely option to get called up when the Rays need another starter. Seymour showed last year that he's more than ready for the majors when called upon. Seymour had a 3.63 ERA over 57 innings with the Rays last year.

Seymour spent most of his time in the bullpen, but made five starts late in the season. As a starter, Seymour had a 3.16 ERA in 25 2/3 innings. Seymour's minor league numbers were more impressive. Prior to his promotion in 2025, Seymour had a 2.62 ERA (86 innings) at Triple-A.

In 2024, Seymour made 27 starts (145 1/3 innings) across Double-A and Triple-A with a 2.35 ERA. He's been knocking on the door of the majors for some time, and his spring has been enough to warrant a starting role for the Rays to begin the season.

Seymour has plenty of routes to joining the Rays' rotation. When he does, there's a very strong chance he can stick. If that's early in the season, you could end up using your last draft pick on a pitcher with top-40 upside at the position.

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