College Football Playoff Picture: CFP Analysis for Bubble Teams Including Alabama, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Virginia, Miami, Texas

December 2, 2025

Mike's 2025 College Football Playoff breakdown, rankings, and analysis for the 12-team CFP bracket. Analysis for Ole Miss, Alabama, Notre Dame, Texas, Miami, and more.

We are here at conference championship week, nearly a month after the first CFP rankings came out. We still have no clarity on what they value. Losing one committee member didn't help, but the wishy-washy, politician-type answers given to questions leave more questions than answers.

Now the CFP committee is faced with some really big problems. The ACC did them no favors with a crazy set of tiebreaker rules that had teams eagerly watching the Syracuse-Boston College game -- two teams who have been out of the race since September -- to learn their fates.

The ACC is staring down a bidless playoff one year after getting two teams in when many thought they wouldn't. How does this work, you ask? We'll break it down for you here. We'll tell how it could happen, what it could mean for future playoffs, and what the committee should do to mitigate the damage and save face in 2025. We'll even get to the Lane Kiffin saga, because...of course it affects this. Are you ready? Down the rabbit hole we go.

The "A" In ACC Stands For Armageddon

First, we should explain how it works. There are five automatic bids to the College Football Playoff. The five highest-ranked conference winners are all in automatically. It is not mandated that all four need to be the "Power 4" conferences.

“It’s really confusing for me…. [the 5 highest ranked conference champs]…I think we all get locked in on the [P4]”

I’ve told everyone, all season, that the P4 don’t have guaranteed bids.

It’s confusing because ESPN et. al have pushed that narrative all season. https://t.co/ayEwlNr1In

— Herd Bros (@TheHerdBros) December 2, 2025

So, here is where it gets tricky. If Virginia were to lose to Duke, Duke would be the ACC Champion with an 8-5 record. It's nearly certain that the American Conference winner and James Madison would get in over Duke. It's reasonable to assume that UNLV at 11-2 would be in over Duke if they win the Mountain West.

That would shut out the ACC and get two Group of 5 teams into the playoff. Honestly, I think it would be great for the sport, but sports media, specifically ESPN, have spent the last three months telling you the Group of 5 is "less than," when in reality, the top of the Go5 is much better than the bottom of the Power 4.

Here's the kicker. Miami is ranked 12th in the latest CFP poll, but will not sniff the conference championship game because of the ACC tiebreaker rules.

ACC CHAOS

The ACC had a 5-way tie for 2nd place at 6-2.

The FIFTH tiebreaker decided it.

Duke’s 8 ACC opponents had the best combined record in league games.

That sends Duke to the ACC Championship Game. pic.twitter.com/45hSwtnCWt

— Mike Monaco (@MikeMonaco_) November 30, 2025

The conference did the right thing by standing by its rules, but it is really unfortunate for Miami fans. Here is where the committee can fix it: rank Miami 10th. It's called hedging.

If Virginia were to lose, Miami could get in as an at-large; therefore, the ACC wouldn't be shut out. The flipside of that coin is that if Virginia were to win (they beat Duke by 17 in Durham three weeks ago), it could result in two ACC teams in a year in which no one thinks they deserve it.

Here's the crazy thing: the committee could hedge and still pull it off without anyone losing their collective minds. I'll explain later.

Notre Dame Has Become A Problem For The CFP Committee

Notre Dame was set up for this by the AP still ranking the Irish after two losses to open the season. It turns out that Miami and Texas A&M are as good or better than we thought. The issue is that Notre Dame's only other ranked win is over No. 17 USC.

They have played a bunch of bad ACC teams otherwise, but here's the bad news for the Irish: Miami played most of these same teams and has the head-to-head win over Notre Dame.

Last season, there were 7 head-to-head results among Top 25 teams who finished with the same record.

✅ (10-2) #5 Georgia ranked ahead of (10-2) #7 Tennessee

✅ (9-3) #11 Alabama ranked ahead of (9-3) #14 South Carolina

✅ (9-3) #11 Alabama ranked ahead of (9-3) #19 Missouri… pic.twitter.com/fdnwVNcGZ4

— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) November 26, 2025

That's damning of the committee. They got around it earlier in the season by ranking Miami lower in the first CFP rankings. At the time, Miami had lost two of the last three games, and people were wondering about their legitimacy.

The CFP committee said that head-to-head didn't matter since they were not being compared directly. Now, Miami is only three spots below the Irish. They have to be compared now. Miami has beaten three of the four same opponents by a lot more than Notre Dame did, and they have the H2H advantage.

Lane Kiffin Ruined Mississippi

When Lane Kiffin took the LSU job, he issued an ultimatum to his current staff, stating that they could not finish the season with Mississippi and then follow him to LSU. On some level, I understand this, but it is also so unfair to the players on Mississippi's team.

Due to this ultimatum, the offensive coordinator, two WR coaches, and the general manager resigned with Kiffin. Big deal, right? It's still the same players. Unfortunately, it does not matter.

What will the CFP committee do with this Ole Miss coaching situation?

The 11-1 Rebels just lost their:

Head Coach
Offensive Coordinator
Co-offensive coordinator
LB Coach
Sr. Dir. Player Personnel
WR Coach
Inside WR Coach
General Manager
Sr. Assoc. AD for Football Ops
S&C Coach pic.twitter.com/LJyrdDVETE

— Travis J Davidson (@TravisSkol) December 1, 2025

The CFP bylaws clearly state that a team can be removed if the same coaches and/or players do not participate. They already used this once with Florida State in 2023. Will it happen again? It would make life much easier on the CFP if they did.

The SEC Championship CFP Problem

Due to Texas A&M's loss to Texas, Alabama and Georgia will rematch in the SEC Championship Game. Cool, right? It's happened before, and they are always good games. Here's the problem: what if Alabama loses the rematch?

Alabama is 10th in the current CFP rankings, or in the last at-large spot. If they lose a rematch to Georgia, the Tide would be sitting at 10-3 with a horde of 10-2 teams that are just as, if not more deserving, than the Tide.

The committee is on the record as stating that participation in a conference championship game can't hurt you. They kept to that with SMU last year, but that was fairly simple. This is much more complicated.

Look at 9-14 in the rankings. Notre Dame is ranked ahead of Miami when both have the same record, and Miami won the regular-season matchup. BYU is 11-1 in a power conference. The BYU situation should take care of itself. Either they beat Texas Tech and get the Big 12 bid, or they lose and are out at 11-2.

Here comes the hypocrisy. That would be punishing BYU for a loss in the conference championship game. Wouldn't the same apply to Alabama? Don't bet on it.

The difference is that Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark doesn't have the clout that SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey does. If Alabama is snubbed for a second straight year, college football will be fractured as we know it. Sankey will take his conference and leave.

We shouldn't bow down to Sankey's threats because it's bad for the game, but isn't that kind of a fracture also bad for the game? There is a way out of this, but the CFP committee won't like it.

What about Texas?

The Longhorns have three losses, but they also have three wins against teams that will be in the top 12 of the CFP rankings. To me, the loss to Florida should knock them out. Why does Texas deserve a fourth chance when it lost to a four-win Florida team?

Here's the problem. The CFP said they would factor in the strength of schedule this year. Texas has beaten more good teams than anyone else. At that point, Texas fans claim it doesn't matter that they lost to Florida. Most disagree, but here's the problem.

Texas has threatened to pull the Ohio State game in 2026 and the already scheduled games with Michigan coming up. The CFP was able to push this 12-team abomination through with the promise of better regular-season games.

Texas argues that if they had scheduled an FCS game in Week 1 instead of Ohio State, the Longhorns would be a playoff lock, even with the loss to Florida. They're probably right. This puts the CFP in an impossible situation.

The first issue is that they smacked Texas back seven spots for getting blown out by Georgia. That virtually assured that Texas wouldn't get a fourth try, no matter what happened. They need to stick to that.

The 25-point loss to Georgia doesn't look any better. Ultimately, we need a college football commissioner to come in and straighten things out. The feeble governing body has let conferences run by one or two powerful brands get way out of control.

How The College Football Playoff Committee Can Fix 2025

There is a way to fix all of these problems, but the CFP committee will not like it. Worse yet, it's almost certain that they will not do this.

I mentioned in the ACC header that the CFP could "hedge" Miami into the 10th slot. That would mean moving Alabama down to 11. The SEC would throw a massive fit, but here's why it could work.

If the CFP moves Alabama down to 11th now for struggling with Auburn (there is a precedent for this; it has happened before), they have a justified reason. Then, if Alabama beats Georgia again, the Tide are in anyway, and it doesn't matter. If Alabama loses to Georgia, they're 11th, and it doesn't matter.

See how easy that is? They dealt with insufferable Alabama fans last year. They can do it again this year. They can even use the Florida State loss against Alabama (finally).

This is a risk since the ACC could get two teams in at the expense of an SEC team, but is that so bad? Florida State beat Alabama, and Clemson beat South Carolina this year, just for a couple of examples.

The Notre Dame problem is simple: move them behind Miami based on the head-to-head Miami win and several common opponents.

As for Ole Miss, I could see the CFP moving them down and moving BYU up. If BYU were to lose the Big 12 Championship, it would be out. This would allow the CFP to leave both Miami and Notre Dame in, thereby getting rid of that problem entirely.

The alleged backroom deal with the CFP that Notre Dame has almost has to be real at this point. That's the only way to explain why the Irish are still ahead of Miami.

The 12 teams would be Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Texas Tech, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Miami, Notre Dame, BYU, AAC Champion, and either Virginia or James Madison.

If you notice, there are only three SEC teams in that scenario. It absolutely will not happen.

What Will The College Football Playoff Committee Do?

For the first time, I really don't know. The committee used to be relatively simple to figure out, but this year, some things have mattered while certain things haven't. The first (and most obvious) is head-to-head results.

I liked it better when the committee ranked the strength of schedule lower in their criteria because it is easily manipulated, just like the "quad" system in college basketball.

12 of the 25 teams ranked in the preseason will finish the season unranked. Yet, those teams that started the season ranked are given more leverage during the season. BYU started unranked again and can't crack the top 10, even with one loss to a top-five team on the road.

Oregon, Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oregon are the only safe teams. If the committee is to leave Mississippi out, Alabama will certainly replace them, and the result of the SEC Championship won't matter.

If the backroom deal is real (and it likely is), Notre Dame is in. If Notre Dame is in, Miami has to be to keep with the head-to-head mattering. That's nine of the 12 slots. The other two highest-ranked conference champions put this total at 11 teams.

Who is the last team? Can you really punish a one-loss Mississippi for the coach being a jackass? Can you punish a good BYU team again for starting the season unranked? Can you leave Alabama out for a loss in the conference championship game? That doesn't even address the Texas issue.

What's Next For The College Football Playoff?

ESPN's allowing the negotiations for the 2026 format to continue into December was on purpose. ESPN knows that there is no right answer here. Some fanbases will be alienated. Some conference commissioners are going to be furious. There's a lot of money at stake. Who can blame them?

The only sure thing is that ESPN wins because there will be expansion. This is the nightmare scenario that will cause the expansion of the playoffs again. Worse yet, this will likely cause the Power 4 to close ranks entirely and completely freeze out the Group of 5 teams if Duke wins the ACC.

Whatever is next, it will likely make the sport worse. Expanded playoffs take the urgency out of the regular season. Look what happens in Week 17 of the NFL. A lot of starters sit. The bad news is that it's rivalry week in college football.

I'm hoping that the expansion is only to 16, and that there are still only five or six automatic bids, all reserved for conference champions. Granting multiple bids to power conferences is a horrible idea.

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