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Mike's Week 4 college football betting picks against the spread for Thursday, September 18, and Friday, September 19, 2025. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
Week 3 of the 2025 college football season brought some more upsets. Who would have guessed that Clemson, Notre Dame, and Florida would be a combined 2-6 through three weeks?
No FCS teams collected scalps this week, and time is running out for them to collect more. On the bright side, Akron finally scored points. Long Island, Bryant, Tarleton, and Austin Peay are still the FCS teams to beat FBS foes. New Hampshire got really close to joining that list against Ball State. Indiana State did not. The Sycamores only had 77 total yards against Indiana.
We have another loaded weekend with 62 total games. We have one on Thursday and two more on Friday. All of those are FBS vs. FBS matchups this week. We'll also take a look back at my record for Week 3.
CFB Betting Picks for Week 4
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly, as the case may be.
Rice (-6.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Rice beat Louisiana. Charlotte nearly lost to Monmouth last week. This feels safe.
Pick: Rice -6.5
Tulsa at Oklahoma State (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This could end up being the worst game of the entire season, and that's saying a lot.
NEWS: #OKState has added North Alabama transfer quarterback Noah Walters to their roster and he'll be available Friday night, I can confirm. He joins Zane Flores as a QB with collegiate experience. @zlancaster91 first reported the news. https://t.co/kcE4tvKEOX pic.twitter.com/Ung7eH0TyL
— McClain (@McclainBaxley) September 17, 2025
With the NCAA cracking down on the transfer portal, you won't see a lot of this going forward. This hints that the Pokes aren't happy with Zane Flores at quarterback. Oklahoma State has to be better, right? RIGHT? I wouldn't bet this with your money.
Pick: Oklahoma State +11.5
Iowa (-2.5) at Rutgers
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
So, this is what clobbering UMass gets you? Not a chance! It's back to offensive obscurity for Iowa.
Pick: Rutgers +2.5
CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad?
You can track my wins and losses on this sheet. I have everything updated from 2014-18 and 2023-present. I'm still looking for missing articles from 2019 and 2020 to get a running total of all of my picks. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
North Carolina State (-7.5) at Wake Forest: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
A food truck caught on fire outside the Wake Forest vs. NC State game, causing smoke to fill the stadium.
🎥 @espn | H/T @OswaldsWrld pic.twitter.com/PRuq8XaMIB
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) September 12, 2025
The fire in the food truck wasn't even the strangest part of this game. There was a kick return for a touchdown and a defensive lineman returning an interception for a touchdown...in the first quarter alone! This was a game of 14-point swings. Thankfully, the Pack had the last one.
Colorado at Houston (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Colorado defense is bad. No quarterback can change that.
Kansas State (-1.5) at Arizona: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Dylan Edwards once again left with an injury in the first quarter, but K-State wasn't moving the ball with him in there anyway. Avery Johnson has been a total disaster this year.
Avery Johnson today:
13/29
88 Passing Yards
-16 Rushing Yards
1 TD pic.twitter.com/ofmuY5e5UN— College Football Report (@CFBRep) September 13, 2025
New Mexico at UCLA (-15.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
New Mexico beats UCLA 35-10 for the most lopsided win by a Mountain West team vs a Big Ten team since Utah beat Indiana 40-13 on 9/7/2002
— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) September 13, 2025
This was New Mexico's first win over a Big Ten team and first win against a power conference team since 2008.
New Mexico is 131st in the 247 talent composite rankings and beat UCLA who is 26th, 35-10.
— WestCoastCFB (@WestCoastCFB) September 13, 2025
I'm not even sure where UCLA goes from here. This team is not good. They don't play like a team. UCLA is going to be a dog in each of their remaining nine games this season.
UCLA has not gone winless since 1924, when it went 0-5-3. 0-12 is starting the Bruins straight in the face right now.
(4) Oregon (-27.5) at Northwestern: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Oregon second string let me down. This was 31-0 at the end of three quarters. Not only that, but Oregon didn't show up with the inflatable duck to put on Lake Michigan. This was a disaster all around.
(12) Clemson (-2.5) at Georgia Tech: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Incredible scene here in Atlanta. Georgia Tech beats Clemson for the first time since 2014 pic.twitter.com/21Vs91QX2f
— jackson caudell (@jacksoncaudell) September 13, 2025
I'm impressed with Georgia Tech's defense and Haynes King's propensity for hero ball. I'm not impressed by Cade Klubnik's regression to his 2023 form. This is Georgia Tech's first 3-0 start since 2016.
(13) Oklahoma (-22.5) at Temple: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The defense is nasty. John Mateer is Oklahoma's best quarterback since Jalen Hurts. Track star Tory Blaylock appears to be RB1. Things are finally clicking for the Sooners under Brent Venables.
Wisconsin at (19) Alabama (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Ty Simpson has been really impressive since the loss to Florida State in the opener. Wisconsin is no longer what it used to be, but the defense isn't the problem. The Badgers are still good on the defensive side of the ball, and Simpson still lit them up.
Central Michigan at (23) Michigan (-27.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Bryce Underwood flashed all of the elite ability that made him the No. 1 ranked prospect in the SC Next 300 this past weekend @BryceUnderwoo16
• 235 passing yards
• 114 rushing yards
• 3 total touchdownsStill just 18 years old.
— Billy Tucker (@TheUCReport) September 15, 2025
The kid glovers were finally off of Bryce Underwood in this one. Perhaps it was related to the opponent. Maybe it was the coach. Maybe a bit of both. Whatever the case is, I want to see him do it against a decent defense. If Underwood lights up Nebraska in Lincoln, look out.
Memphis (-3.5) at Troy: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The injury to Goose Crowder on Troy's first drive doomed them. Tucker Kilcrease was overmatched by the Memphis defense. He only completed 10 passes in 29 attempts for 65 yards. All things considered, Troy's defense was really good.
Buffalo (-21.5) at Kent State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm ready to take the interim tag off of Mark Carney. Kent played better in this game than they ever did under Kenni Burns. Dru DeShields might be one of the best quarterbacks in the MAC. Unfortunately for Kent, the one on the other side (Ta'Quan Roberson) was better.
South Alabama at (24) Auburn (-24.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It doesn't matter who the coach is. Jackson Arnold is still limited as a passer. Auburn is a lot better than they were last year, but the ceiling is fairly low with Arnold as your starting quarterback. Take it from an Oklahoma fan.
Connecticut (-9.5) at Delaware: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This game couldn't have been more even. UConn had 521 yards of offense. Delaware had 512. Neither team turned it over. This was a game for those who love offense. Both teams executed well. Delaware could wind up with six wins this year.
(6) Georgia (-4.5) at (15) Tennessee: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Joey Aguilar vs Georgia:
First 14 passes: 14/14, 100%, 213 yards, 15.2 YPA, 2 TDs
Rest of the game: 10/22, 45.5%, 158, 7.2 YPA, 2 TDs 2 INTsThat's what we call a defensive adjustment.#GoDawgs pic.twitter.com/yXnk8q1B2S
— The Bulldawg Report (@ReportBulldawg) September 14, 2025
Tennessee scored a touchdown in each of its first three drives. Joey Aguilar completed his first 14 passes of the game. Then Georgia figured them out. While it was still a strong game for Aguilar, Gunner Stockton delivered one of the better quarterback performances for Georgia of the last decade. Now we see what all the hype was about!
In-game adjustments are the most important thing in college football. A shocking number of teams are bad at them. Georgia is not one of those.
Oregon State at (21) Texas Tech (-23.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I was partially ridiculed in the offseason for saying that Behren Morton might win the Heisman. I stand by that. This was a dominant performance by Tech on both sides of the ball, but Oregon State has proven to be worse than many thought so far.
USC (-20.5) at Purdue: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
USC let off the gas in this one. The Trojans shut down Devin Mockobee, but Ryan Browne turned in a strong game with 305 yards passing.
Washington State at North Texas (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better. North Texas was all over Jaxon Potter in this one. The Mean Green picked him off three times and held him to 139 passing yards. This is the best performance by the North Texas defense since its namesake played there...
SMU (-27.5) at Missouri State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Some of those Power 4 teams struggled at Group of 5 stadiums. Missouri State packed the stadium and watched their team hang around for a while in this one. The Bears should be able to win a couple of home games this year if they keep packing that stadium.
Pittsburgh (-7.5) at West Virginia: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Feeling TYE-high tonight📈
✅ 3 TDs
✅ 21 Carries
✅ 141 YDs
Tye Edwards Highlights vs. Pitt🎬#Big12FB | @WVUfootball pic.twitter.com/oCbUedMqs9— Big 12 Studios (@big12studios) September 14, 2025
Tye Edwards will never buy another drink in Morgantown after just one game at West Virginia. That's what happens when you dominate like this in the Backyard Brawl, the most important rivalry game for the Mountaineers.
(14) Iowa State (-21.5) at Arkansas State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Iowa State looked wiped in this one. I'm not taking anything away from Arkansas State. This was the best offense that the Cyclones have faced this season, and it's not close. But this team was worn out. The bye week couldn't come at a better time for the Cyclones.
Louisiana at (25) Missouri (-27.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I should have been more confident in this. Missouri's run game is impressive. I don't care who it's against.
UTEP at (7) Texas (-40.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Arch Manning. This was a terrible game for him. It was beyond terrible considering the opponent. At one point, he had 10 consecutive incompletions. I almost feel like the rumors are true and that Manning is playing hurt. If he is, this is a disaster for Texas.
Good to see ESPN talking heads no longer hyping up a mediocre Texas Longhorn QB Arch Manning, If Texas did not have easy games coming up Arch would probably be benched. 11-25-114yds 1 int & 1 TD against UTEP is not a #1 draft choice or Heisman winner. pic.twitter.com/u2yjlsUZDK
— STONE & Digital Dave (@StoneXDigital) September 15, 2025
I honestly think that ESPN hyping this poor guy up as the second coming of Uncle Peyton got in his head. I do think that Arch will be fine at some point. Scouts usually aren't this wrong. He was ranked at the top of his class for a reason.
(18) South Florida at (5) Miami (FL) (-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
MARK FLETCHER JR. SHOWS OUT 🚀
Miami’s running back was relentless in the 49-12 win over South Florida. 16 carries, 120 yards, 2 rushing TDs, plus 2 catches for 25 yards@CanesFootball | @MiamiHurricanes | #ItsAllAboutTheU @DrPepper pic.twitter.com/EQo80vpZ0r
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) September 14, 2025
I still think South Florida is a good team deserving of being ranked. Miami just wiped the field with them. This Miami team is scary, which is impressive considering the caliber of the offense last year. Miami has looked like the best team in the country so far.
Liberty (-5.5) at Bowling Green: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Where was this Bowling Green defense last year? They wasted the talent of Harold Fannin Jr.!
Middle Tennessee State at Nevada (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
How bad is Nevada? The Blue Raiders didn't score for over 53 minutes. They scored two touchdowns in the last seven to snatch victory in Reno.
Florida Atlantic at Florida International (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kejon Owens owns the Shula Bowl.
Ohio at (1) Ohio State (-28.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Ohio hung around for just long enough. The half saved me.
Western Michigan at (9) Illinois (-27.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Illinois offense woke up in the second half. The defense was legit the whole game.
Arkansas at (17) Mississippi (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
#Arkansas QB Taylen Green is a potential stock up player in the 2026 draft with how he’s looked early on.
6’6, 225 with natural arm talent, currently leads the nation with 11 passing TDs. pic.twitter.com/YfKSXG22IK
— Andy (@AndyyNFL) September 16, 2025
That stupid half. Mississippi deflated the ball in the second half because they knew they couldn't stop Taylen Green.
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Welcome to rock bottom, Virginia Tech.
Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Gamecocks were shut out in the fourth quarter, which ultimately led to their loss. They played well in the first three.
Appalachian State (-3.5) at Southern Mississippi: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The outright win wasn't much of a surprise. Winning in a blowout was. Hiring Charles Huff was the best move Southern Miss has made since they recruited Brett Favre.
Florida at (3) LSU (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
DJ LAGWAY THROWS HIS 5TH INTERCEPTION OF THE NIGHT 😱 pic.twitter.com/iAlaByoqpM
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 14, 2025
LSU's defense has been so good that it has overshadowed the fact that the offense has been stuck in neutral. I can buy Florida's and Clemson's defenses being that good, but Louisiana Tech? If the offense doesn't come around soon, the Tigers could be in trouble.
(16) Texas A&M at (6) Notre Dame (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's hard to say that the Irish played poorly. The offense looked better than it has in a while. Losing the game on a botched extra point is going to be a tough one to swallow, especially considering Notre Dame doesn't have the strength of schedule to get back into the playoff picture.
Eastern Michigan at Kentucky (-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I knew better. It makes it worse losing by a half.
Massachusetts at Iowa (-35.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
After how Iowa's offense looked in the first three weeks, it's a miracle they scored 40 on anyone.
New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm not sure if this means Louisiana Tech is good, but hanging with LSU adds more credibility to it.
East Carolina (-7.5) at Coastal Carolina: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Katin Houser is impressive. The Pirates have something going on over there in Greenville. This is the first shutout for ECU since 2023 and the first against an FBS team since they shut out Duke in September of 2000.
Vanderbilt at (11) South Carolina (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I want to say that the result would have been different if LaNorris Sellers hadn't had to leave the game. I think we all know that's not true. It would have been a closer game, but Vanderbilt was in control even with Sellers in there.
(20) Utah (-23.5) at Wyoming: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I was feeling good about this in the first half. Then the Utah offense exploded in the second half.
Duke at Tulane (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Darian Mensah played well in his return to New Orleans, but Jake Retzlaff was just a little better.
Navy (-14.5) at Tulsa: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Per @collegefb_ref & @Stathead:
Since at least 1956, only one FBS/DI-A player has recorded a season w/ at least 13 passing TD, 17 rushing TD & 4 or fewer interceptions: @NavyFB’s Blake Horvath in 2024
That’s it. pic.twitter.com/63XfVP70kd
— Greg Harvey (@BetweenTheNums) August 6, 2025
Horvath is on pace for a similar season this year, and no one is talking about it. Notre Dame is the only ranked team on Navy's schedule. If the Middies somehow find a way to win that game, we could see an option team in the CFP.
Akron at UAB (-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Sorry for the Akron slander. The Zips shut out UAB in the second half.
Air Force (-4.5) at Utah State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Bryson Barnes is the best QB in the state pic.twitter.com/bppNd8ZMlC
— Utah State Dreamer (@LandonCheatham) September 14, 2025
Bryson Barnes might be the best player in the Mountain West. I'm not joking.
Minnesota (-2.5) at California: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has high hopes in Berkeley. The Bears welcome three East Coast teams in ACC play. We already know that the North Carolina game is a night game (late night in the east). Cal is more than a Bowl team. They could be an ACC contender behind Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.
Boston College (-13.5) at Stanford: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Something is changing in Palo Alto. Andrew Luck knows how to run a team, and Frank Reich knows how to coach one. Stanford still isn't that talented, but the defense was impressive in the second half of this game. Imagine what happens with a more talented team.
Texas State at Arizona State (-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Texas State, settling for field goals all night, blew the spread. They moved the ball well enough, but couldn't punch it in.
College Football Betting Season Results
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. Given the horrible afternoon I had, 21-26 wasn't too bad this week. I'm still above water at 72-68 after three weeks (and Week 0). I have a feeling I lost points, too.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 3-3 (9-6) = 3
2. 3-10 (24-25) = -2
3. 9-7 (26-19) = 21
4. 5-5 (14-12) = 8
5. 1-1 (4-6) = -10
I lost eight points on the week, but I'm still up 20 points on the season. I came out far enough ahead in the first two weeks of the season. I need to be better in conference play.
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