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Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 1 of 2025. His WRs to upgrade based on cornerback matchups data.
Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 1 of the 2025 fantasy football season. After a long offseason, we're thrilled to be back and kick off the 2025 season! For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. We're using a similar data-driven process to quantify the offensive and defensive matchups based on underlying metrics.
The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
The WR/CB Matchup Chart is back again for 2025! You can find it below! We'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.
We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive number from the offensive one. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.
With more data from the 2025 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical
Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 1 sorted alphabetically. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).
The visual below shows offenses from the Arizona Cardinals to the Cleveland Browns.
The visual below shows offenses from the Dallas Cowboys to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The visual below shows offenses from the Los Angeles Rams to the New York Jets.
The visual below shows offenses from the Philadelphia Eagles to the Washington Commanders.
Week 1 WR/CB Matchups: Best Weekly Matchup Scores
Before we examine the weekly matchup upgrades and downgrades, the visual below shows the receivers with the best weekly matchup scores.
Week 1 WR/CB Matchups: Worst Weekly Matchup Scores
Before we examine the weekly matchup upgrades and downgrades, the visual below shows the receivers with the worst weekly matchup scores.
Week 1 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades
Emeka Egbuka vs. Dee Alford
Not that Egbuka needed a matchup upgrade in Week 1, because the talent and situation have been opening a path for fantasy goodness in Week 1. Alford allowed the second-most fantasy points per route run and the seventh-most yards per route last season. After using a zone-heavy defensive scheme, the Falcons hired Jeff Ulbrich as their defensive coordinator.
With the Jets, Ulbrich ran tons of man coverage. We speculated on whether the Falcons will deploy more man coverage in 2025, given that they had one of the worst secondaries in terms of yards and fantasy points allowed. That might benefit Alford and play more to his skill set.
Egbuka was better against man coverage (2.51 yards per route) compared to zone (2.29). There’s a chance Chris Godwin is ready for Week 1 since he passed his physical. Although the Buccaneers will be without Tristan Wirfs, Baker Mayfield should fare well because they face the Falcons, who brought pressure at the 25th-highest percentage last season.
Furthermore, the Buccaneers and Falcons game has the sixth-highest over/under. That means we want to invest in these offenses in Week 1, and Egbuka should be a must-start option.
Marvin Mims Jr. vs. Jarvis Brownlee Jr.
Mims was a screen merchant last season. When Mims was targeted on screen passes, he averaged a 75 percent target rate, 29.3 percent first-read target share, and 6.53 yards per route run. The usage and production declined for Mims when he wasn’t targeted on a screen pass.
We covered tons of players, but we closed with this fun stat about #BroncosCountry Marvin Mims Jr.
When Mims was targeted and it was NOT a screen pass, Mims averaged:
🟠17% targets per route run
🟠6.3% first-read target share
🟠1.97 yards per route runWhen targeted on-screen… https://t.co/EKQ4wMjKQf pic.twitter.com/JgKWoR682g
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) June 20, 2025
Mims averaged a 17 percent target rate, 6.3 percent first-read target share, and 1.97 yards per route when he wasn’t schemed up via a screen pass. On one hand, the Broncos may continue to scheme up Mims via the screen game. However, there’s also a chance they expand Mims’s route tree to incorporate him more into the offense after he took advantage of his opportunities.
The Titans used zone coverage 10th-most with the seventh-highest percentage of two-high safety looks. However, they allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback when using two-high coverages. Overall, the Titans’ pass defense struggled, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback.
Mims was dominant against man coverage, producing a whopping 4.43 yards per route run with a team-high 2.38 yards per route against zone in 2025. When we filter down to screen passes on zone coverage, Mims garnered a 71 percent target rate with 4.17 yards per route, though it’s a small sample of 17 targets.
When a player remains efficient on a per-route basis and succeeds with the schemed touches, the optimistic view involves the team trying to incorporate an explosive playmaker like Mims into their offense. Mims should quickly become a regular flex or WR3/4 option in deeper formats.
Josh Downs vs. Jason Marshall Jr.
In most stat filters, it’s hard not to be impressed with Downs as the Colts’ primary slot receiver. The Dolphins might appear somewhat fluky when examining their pass defense, as they allowed the third-lowest fantasy points per drop-back when using zone coverages. That’s notable because the Dolphins deployed zone coverage at the 10th-highest percentage.
Similarly, the Dolphins allowed the fifth-lowest fantasy points per dropback when utilizing man coverage. However, there has been turnover on the Dolphins after trading away Jalen Ramsey, acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick, adding Rasul Douglas, and drafting Jason Marshall Jr. in the fifth round. Douglas was solid with the Bills, allowing 0.23 fantasy points per route run and 1.04 yards per route last season.
Downs led the team in yards per route (2.31) against zone coverages. He performed better against man and flashed his ability to separate with an above-average separation score. Furthermore, the Dolphins ran the sixth-highest percentage of two-high looks. Downs earned a target on 32 percent of his routes while producing 1.98 yards per route versus two-high coverages.
The Colts and Dolphins game has the sixth-highest over/under. We could see a fun offensive game in Week 1, which includes Downs in a smash spot. If Marshall hadn’t suffered a season-ending injury, he might have gone higher in drafts. He profiled as an above-average athletic cornerback, so there’s a chance Marshall might be an underrated cornerback if he keeps Downs in check.
Week 1 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Rome Odunze vs. Isaiah Rodgers
Fading Odunze in 2025 might be worrisome because there’s a scenario where he takes a step forward in Year 2 with an improved team context based on the coaching personnel and their investment in two offensive pieces within the first two rounds. Oduzne wasn’t great by the numbers with an 18 percent target rate, 0.27 fantasy points per route, and 1.37 yards per route run in 2025.
Part of the issue was Odunze having the third-lowest catchable target rate (61.2 percent). That put him ahead of Adonai Mitchell (57.7 percent) and Jonathan Mingo (56.1 percent), typically not a favorable group for a highly valued receiver. Odunze had the lowest first-read target share, target rate, yards per route, and first-read target shares among the Bears trio of receivers.
Rodgers was above-average with the Eagles, allowing the 19th-lowest fantasy points per route (0.20) and the fifth-lowest yards per route (0.66). He joins the Vikings, who allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per dropback while using their pressure-heavy (No. 7) approach.
Caleb Williams struggled against pressure. He had a 29.1 percent pressure-to-sack rate, 0.30 adjusted yards per attempt, and a -1.7 percent completion rate over expected. Expect Flores to fluster Williams in Week 1, leading to some inconsistent passing production to Odunze, especially since he was targeted downfield (14.2 average target depth).
DK Metcalf vs. Sauce Gardner
Metcalf left Seattle for Pittsburgh. He arguably goes to a downgraded passing environment from Geno Smith to Aaron Rodgers. Smith boasted a 5.4 percent completion rate over expected (CPOE), an 80 percent adjusted completion percentage, and a 12.6 percent off-target rate. Meanwhile, Rodgers had an awful -3.1 CPOE, 72.3 percent adjusted completion rate, and a 19.9 percent off-target percentage.
With Robert Saleh and Jeff Ulbrich, the Jets ran the seventh-highest percentage of man coverage. They allowed the sixth-lowest fantasy points per dropback when deploying man coverages. We could speculate on whether the Jets will continue running high rates of man. However, the Jets hired Head Coach Aaron Glenn and brought in Steve Wilks as their defensive coordinator.
That’s notable because the Lions ran the highest percentage of man coverage with Glenn as the defensive coordinator, so there’s a chance the Jets might continue using similar defensive tendencies. Assuming that’s the case, Metcalf showed above-average Separation Scores (0.111) with a slightly better yards per route run (2.17) against man coverage last season.
Furthermore, the Jets brought the second-highest rate of pressure, and the Steelers' offensive line struggled, allowing the third-highest pressure rate in 2024. Rodgers ranked 38th in CPOE with the 19th-highest pressure-to-sack rate when facing pressure among the 47 quarterbacks with 25 dropbacks. The Steelers tend to be balanced in neutral game scripts after ranking 27th in neutral script pass rate (51 percent).
The offensive issues aside, Gardner allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per route and the 17th-lowest yards per route. That’s a tough matchup, and the Steelers’ offensive environment needs to prove they can be reliable.
Ricky Pearsall vs. Devon Witherspoon
The hype for Pearsall has been through the roof. We discussed Pearsall as having a friendly matchup early in the season. That’s mainly because Pearsall took off in the final two weeks. In Weeks 17-18, Pearsall averaged 2.72 yards per route out wide and 3.04 in the slot. He was more efficient than Jauan Jennings in Weeks 17-18.
That’s notable because Witherspoon profiles as the Seahawks’ slot cornerback, potentially lining up with Pearsall. However, it’s worth noting that the 49ers tend to move their receivers around the formation, and Jennings also shifts into the slot. Witherspoon posted above-average numbers, allowing 0.21 fantasy points per route and 0.96 yards per route run.
The Seahawks used zone coverage at the 11th-highest rate while allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per dropback. Pearsall was worse against zone (1.23 yards per route) compared to man coverage (2.10 yards per route). A divisional matchup in Week 1 against the 49ers and Seahawks should mean a close game, evidenced by a 2.5-point spread favoring the 49ers.
Fantasy managers likely won’t be sitting Pearsall. However, we might want to temper expectations in this WR/CB matchup for Week 1.
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