Overvalued Draft Picks to Avoid - Fantasy Football Do Not Draft List (2025)

Nathan Harvey's fantasy football overvalued picks and "do not draft" list for 2025. His top fantasy football draft avoids, including Puka Nacua, Breece Hall, Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins, and Patrick Mahomes

There are players every year who break out onto the NFL scene and win people fantasy championships. However, as every fantasy manager knows, there is also a group of players every year that bust and leave their fantasy teams out to dry.

As important as it is to find those breakouts and sleepers, it’s equally important to avoid those landmines in the draft that can leave gaping holes in your roster. Those are the players that leave you shaking your head every time you check your lineup and fill you with regret.

Here are five players who will be busts at their current draft value.

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Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Nacua has been nothing short of phenomenal in his first two seasons in the league. He exploded onto the scene and hasn’t looked back as the Rams’ WR1. However, there are a few red flags that indicate a possible bust season for the Rams’ star.

Cooper Kupp has been a shadow of his former self since that historic 2021 season. He has been plagued by injuries, and the gap he left has allowed Nacua to rise as a fantasy star. However, the Rams have moved on from Kupp and replaced him with what many consider the greatest fantasy WR of the last eight years, Davante Adams.

Adams had a rocky start to the 2024 season, but after a mid-season trade to the Jets, Davante was able to dominate down the stretch. After the Jets’ week 12 bye week, Adams averaged 19.4 half-PPR fantasy points per game. Now Adams joins forces with Matthew Stafford and the Rams and will battle with Puka for targets.

While the two elite WRs will help take defensive attention off one another, they will eat into each other’s production. Adams has likely lost a step from his prime, but he still proved to be a great receiver and will be a huge upgrade from Kupp in this Rams offense.

While Nacua has produced great numbers in the last two seasons, he has struggled to find the end zone, with just nine TDs to go with his almost 2500 yards. While he has made up for it with his volume, these touchdowns are significant when deciding between him and the elite fantasy receivers next to him in drafts. Now with Adams in the picture, possibly the best red zone receiver in the NFL, it’s hard to imagine Nacua scoring double-digit touchdowns.

His quarterback, Stafford, is also 38 years old and has missed most of training camp with a back injury. Stafford has been great at supplying fantasy receivers, but providing both Puka and Adams with adequate production is going to be a stretch.

"I'm fading Nacua."@MattHarmon_BYB and @scott_pianowski discuss how Matthew Stafford's injury and the addition of Davante Adams have hurt Puka Nacua's fantasy outlook 📉

(via Yahoo Fantasy Forecast) pic.twitter.com/7059mXDQKq

— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) August 6, 2025

We have seen several offenses with multiple top 20 fantasy receivers in the same offense recently, but it’s usually on the back of a 4000-yard, 30-plus touchdown season from the quarterback. Stafford hasn’t had 4000 yards or thrown more than 24 touchdowns since 2021. Even if Stafford manages to push through the back injury and stay healthy, he’s going to need a big step up in production to allow these two receivers to produce at their current ADP.

Nacua is a great receiver, but the combination of Adams' arrival, a low touchdown ceiling, and questions around the aging Stafford is too much to warrant his current ADP of 12. The first and second rounds in fantasy drafts are full of players who can be the number one at their respective positions, but the red flags in the Rams’ offense suggest that this kind of season may not be possible for Puka this year.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Mahomes has dominated the NFL since his first full season in 2018. He hasn’t missed an AFC Championship and has already been to the Super Bowl five times. He has undoubtedly been the best quarterback in that span. However, Mahomes and the Chiefs' success have not translated into fantasy production from the future Hall-of-Fame quarterback over the last two seasons.

We all remember the 2018 and 2022 seasons in which Mahomes dominated fantasy, but recently, the Chiefs seem more concerned with game management than lighting up the scoreboard. Since the Chiefs hired OC Matt Nagy before the 2023 season, the Chiefs ranked 15^th in scoring and dead-last in completed air-yards per attempt in both seasons.

Since 2019, Patrick Mahomes' elite deep ball has clearly declined.

But the numbers are WAY uglier than anyone realized.

Deep ball accuracy fell from 51% (# 1 in NFL) to 21% (dead last).

Why his arm could end the Chiefs' dynasty — unless they fix this one brutal problem: pic.twitter.com/wSTHm9R4Wq

— Scott Bouska (@sbouska2) March 25, 2025

Mahomes’ stats have faltered due to the more conservative approach, averaging 17.5 fantasy points per game in back-to-back seasons. Both 2023 and 2024 were the first times in his career that he averaged under 20 fantasy points per game in a season. While the Chiefs could transfer back to their deep passing ways, they’re winning. The Chiefs went 15-2 last season, ranked fourth in points allowed in 2024, and have won the AFC West in every season since 2016.

The drop off in the key passing statistics is crucial because Mahomes has to be near perfect through the air to keep up with the elite running quarterbacks in the league like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts. It’s going to be a difficult task to overthrow these elite runners, and with a current ranking of QB6, he doesn’t have any room for error.

The main argument in favor of drafting Mahomes in 2025 is a potential improvement in his weapons with an ascending duo of Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. However, tight end Travis Kelce is one year older, and his production has collapsed; Rice is out for the first six games via suspension. Even in the four games with all three played last year, Mahomes was unable to eclipse 17 fantasy points.

Despite finishing as the QB8 and QB11 in the last two seasons, Mahomes is currently coming off the board as the QB6. The truth of the matter is that Mahomes’ name has more value than his fantasy production, and it may lead to him being a fantasy bust for the third year in a row.

Nobody would be surprised if he exploded for a great season this year, but there has been nothing to indicate that’s going to happen over the last two seasons. Mahomes may lead the Chiefs to another championship, but he likely won’t lead fantasy managers to fantasy championships this year.

Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets

Going into the 2024 season, there was palpable excitement around the fantasy ceiling of Hall. Coming off the board in the first round, expectations were sky-high for Breece to enter the elite echelon of running backs. Well, things didn’t work out as Breece finished as the RB17 in half-PPR formats, and there are reasons why it could get worse in 2025.

Hall has made most of his fantasy production in the receiving department with 76 catches in 2023 and 57 in 2024. However, with Justin Fields now in town, that reception number figures to drop significantly. Running quarterbacks like Fields tend to scramble or run before dumping the ball to running backs.

Hall has never had double-digit touchdowns in his career, largely due to the lack of offensive success of the Jets. Heading into this year, there’s no reason to expect any positive change, and several factors may make it even harder for Hall to find the end zone.  Justin Fields is going to take a large portion of the goal-line runs himself. In his six games he started in Pittsburgh last year, Fields had a whopping five rushing touchdowns. With 44 career starts, Fields has amassed 19 rushing touchdowns.

To make matters worse, the 2025 Vegas implied points totals have the Jets projected to be a bottom-5 scoring team at under 20 points a game.

Hall struggled in short yardage as well, only moving the chains on third or fourth down with two or fewer yards to go 54.8% of the time, with the league average being 67.4%.

Braelon Allen is entering his second season in the NFL and is a much larger back, listed at 6-2, 245 lbs. On plays the Jets needed two yards or less, Allen converted 14 of 16 attempts. According to PFF, his rushing grade on those short-yard runs was the best in the league.

believe Braelon Allen converted a 1st down or Touchdown on 78% of runs needing less than 3 yards (18)

Breece Hall was 46% (26)

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) May 27, 2025

Allen has also dominated Jets’ training camp, making headlines consistently, so there is a large possibility that Allen will take a step up in year two and eat into Hall’s workload.

The days of Hall as a first-round pick are still lingering in the fantasy community and can be seen in his current third-round ADP, getting drafted as the RB13. Hall has too many things working against him to go at that price. A capped receiving and touchdown upside, along with the current ascension of Allen, make Hall a must-avoid in 2025.

Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Higgins and the Bengals' offense had a spectacular 2024 season. Despite playing just 12 games, Higgins had 911 yards and 10 touchdowns and still finished as the WR17 in total points. His fantastic year was great for fantasy managers last year, but those who chase that production in drafts this year may get burned.

Tee Higgins last season:

5 Games Missed
4 Games with less than 10 FPTS
7 Games with more than 15 FPTS

The Tee Higgins experience 😭 pic.twitter.com/m3ADWYJ15V

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) May 18, 2025

The main statistical regression that looms for Joe Burrow and his 6.6% touchdown rate, which was the third highest in the NFL in 2024. According to Matt Okada of 4for4, in the last ten years, quarterbacks with a touchdown rate of 6-7% see an average drop of 1.4% the following season. This would bring Burrow back to a touchdown rate of 5.2% which more closely aligns with his career average of 5.5%.

This is not to say that Burrow will certainly not repeat his 2024 numbers, but it is not statistically likely. While Ja'Marr Chase will likely continue to dominate, any drop in Burrow’s spectacular efficiency would be directly felt by Higgins as the secondary weapon in the offense.

Higgins also posted impressive stats in 2024. He ranked fifth among receivers in touchdowns despite missing five games. His touchdown rate of 13.7% was the highest of his career by a wide margin. While not impossible, it seems unlikely that Higgins and Burrow can sustain their exceptionally high touchdown rates. A decline in one or both of those rates would significantly reduce Higgins' fantasy production.

Higgins will likely never be a top-five receiver, and if anything goes wrong in the offense, he is the one who will feel the brunt of the impact. Getting drafted as the WR13, according to RotoBaller ADP, managers can only hope that lightning strikes twice in this Bengals offense for Higgins to pay off at that price.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Waddle has been one of the biggest busts in each of the past two seasons. After a solid 2022 campaign, Waddle has struggled to be remotely startable in fantasy football, averaging 9.7 half-PPR points per game over the past two seasons. Despite vacated targets with tight end Jonnu Smith out of Miami, Waddle is a trap that fantasy managers are going to keep falling for.

The Dolphins' offensive scheme changed from an explosive powerhouse to a conservative, time-management unit in 2024. Head coach Mike McDaniel felt their explosive nature wasn’t consistent enough for the postseason. The scheme change resulted in Smith and De'Von Achane seeing a significant increase in receiving volume, while Waddle’s numbers crumbled, totaling his first sub-100 target season in his career.

Since Hill’s arrival before the 2022 season, Waddle has relied on elite efficiency to sustain fantasy value. Waddle ranked first in 2022 in yards per reception and finished as the WR7 in half-PPR formats. His ranking in yards per reception in 2023 and 2024 was 33^rd and 44^th, and his fantasy value crashed, finishing as the WR34 and WR46 the past two seasons.

Not to mention that all of the Dolphins' offensive weapons are entirely reliant on quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who has had severe concussion issues and hasn’t stayed healthy going all the way back to his days at Alabama. In his five-year career, Tagovailoa has only played more than 13 games once.

The Dolphins' offense was a disaster without Tagovailoa, averaging a measly 12.9 points per game when he was out last season. Waddle himself has only played one full season, so not only does Waddle carry the risk of his own injury, but his quarterback’s high injury chance as well.

There is hope for Waddle, as his chance at improved fantasy production stems from two possibilities. One is that the Dolphins go back to their explosive ways, but there has been no indication that McDaniel wants to change his scheme or that defenses will go away from the two-high safety look that stalled explosive plays throughout the NFL. Even if this happens, the main beneficiary will be Tyreek Hill, not Waddle.

The other possibility is that Hill gets hurt or traded. This is Waddle’s main hope, as he has threatened to leave, and there have been hints of drama with his relationships within the organization. However, the reward is likely still not as great as his production back in his rookie year, 2021, and banking on a player getting traded is not solid enough to warrant drafting Waddle in fantasy. He is one of the worst selections you can make on draft day and would need several things to go right for him not to bust in 2025.

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