Corbin's top fantasy football running back bust candidates - potential early-round avoids and landmines for RBs in 2025, including Kyren Williams, Chuba Hubbard, and more.
Everyone loves breakouts and sleepers. However, the players to avoid might be just as important as the breakouts and sleepers. We've discussed the dead zone at running back, which has evolved throughout the years.
Typically, the market pushed up running backs who had projected volume to begin the season. However, drafters weren't thinking about how their usage might evolve. That's why we should build redraft teams like dynasty rosters, where we project what could happen based on the data and situation, compared to paying for what happened in the previous year.
We'll cover five running backs who could be potential landmines based on their price and underlying metrics. Sure, volume can be king at the position, but what happens if it disappears? We'll lay out the pros and cons of fading these five running backs heading into 2025.
Why in the world would we fade Williams, who ranked second in expected fantasy points per game (EP/G) in 2023 and seventh in 2024? Among the top 20 running backs in EP/G, Williams was one of six running backs with fewer than four receiving EP/G, meaning they relied on the rushing production and efficiency.
Williams ranked 52nd in missed tackles forced per attempt MTF/Att at 13 percent and 73rd in explosive rush percentage out of 92 qualified running backs. This leads to the question of what happens when the volume drops off for Williams. Sure, it hasn’t happened yet, but that’s a risk with running backs that can’t create yards on their own and make explosive plays.
The visual below shows the running back advanced metrics sorted by the lowest explosive rush rate among players with 50 attempts.
With the volume, Williams garnered 74.1 percent of the team’s rush attempts inside the five-yard line, ranking ninth. He benefitted from an offensive line that had the 13th-best adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Williams had the seventh-lowest stuff rate among running backs with 100 rush attempts.
That means just under 40 percent (39.6 percent) of his rush attempts didn’t result in a first down or touchdown, especially when the down and distances are within 3-4 yards in a given situation. Stuff rate and adjusted yards before contact per attempt might be a mixture of an offensive line and running back advanced stat.
Besides the weak underlying metrics, it’s about the cost for Williams. His ADP is in a range of drafts with A.J. Brown, Taylor, Jacobs, Ladd McConkey, Omarion Hampton, Tee Higgins, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Rams’ running backs ranked 24th in EP in 2024 and eighth in 2023. However, they ranked 32nd (2024) and 31st (2023) in receiving EP, suggesting concerns about what if Williams loses rushing volume. This was also the Joe Mixonfade argument heading into 2025 before the significant injury news.
If we’re arguing that Williams should be a running back landmine, then Hubbard fits that mold. It’s the question of what if Hubbard’s volume declines? Hubbard ranked sixth in EP/G, yet the draft market values him as an RB2. He had a career-high in targets (55) and target share (12 percent), ranking ninth among running backs.
Hubbard garnered the sixth-highest percentage of team carries inside the five-yard line at 80.8 percent. He had above-average underlying metrics, evidenced by his 17 percent missed tackles forced rate and a six percent explosive rush percentage. The Panthers had Miles Sanders as the primary competition in the backfield, accounting for 34 percent of the team’s snaps, a 20 percent rush rate, and an eight percent target share.
The Panthers added Rico Dowdle in free agency and drafted Trevor Etienne in the fourth round. Though Dowdle could not create missed tackles and explosive plays like Hubbard, there’s a small chance Dowdle might be better than Sanders at this stage of their careers.
Summary
Hubbard’s ADP sits in a murky draft area, including him, Xavier Worthy, DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Courtland Sutton, DJ Moore, James Conner, RJ Harvey, and George Pickens. Nearly all those players might have more upside than Hubbard at their draft cost. The optimistic outlook for Hubbard might be a discounted version of Williams, though we also discussed him being a landmine pick at running back. Be cautious investing in Hubbard unless he slips past his ADP.
The ADP gap has narrowed between the rookie Johnson and Jaylen Warren. Warren’s ADP was nearly 20 picks past Johnson, but there’s a much closer gap. Johnson had the fourth-highest Running Back Dominator (RB Dom) with the fifth-highest receiving yardage market share in 2024.
That’s notable because Johnson’s career receiving yardage market share was five percent after having seven receptions in his first two collegiate seasons, then 22 in 2024. Johnson’s 4.57 40-yard dash translated into a 63rd percentile Speed Score. The underlying metrics for Johnson were better than expected, with a 26.8 percent missed tackles forced rate and a 50.4 percent breakaway run percentage.
That might suggest Johnson could have better in-game speed than the athletic measurables indicate. He was a productive rusher in college, so why should we fade him? It’s partly because of Johnson having the sixth-worst pass block grade in the 2025 NFL Draft class among the 38th running back prospects. If Johnson struggles to pass block, he might lose rushing reps to Warren, especially because we know Warren possesses the receiving skills.
The Steelers ranked 25th in adjusted yards before contact per attempt and allowed the third-highest pressure rate in 2024. That indicates they’ll need all the run-and-pass blockers since they didn’t make any notable additions besides veteran Andrus Peat for depth.
Summary
Johnson’s top comparables based on the collegiate data include Zack Moss, Carlos Hyde, Alex Collins, Tank Bigsby, and even former Steelers’ running back Le'Veon Bell. That list includes several notable running backs who flashed some upside and solid seasons in their career. Those seem like solid players to compare as a range of outcomes for Johnson.
Maybe this is the Tyjae Spears argument from last season, where we’re expecting the pass-catcher like Warren to take a step forward. Instead of Tony Pollard, it’s Johnson, who could handle the early down role and doesn’t have overlapping skills, so that they can work together in a committee. We typically don’t fade rookies, but Johnson is one at the running back position.
Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans
FFPC ADP: 94.2, RB32
This is that free square because we were already fading Mixon as a dead zone running back in the fifth round. However, Mixon now goes 2-3 rounds later. Is he still a fade at his later cost? Yes, because we saw glimpses of it late in 2024.
It’s the question about what happens if the volume declines for Mixon? We saw a taste of that in the final four games of the season. Mixon averaged 7.1 PPR/G and 10.9 EP/G in Weeks 15-18. He had been on the injury report with ankle/foot injuries, which could’ve contributed to the volume decline.
During those final four games, the Texans mixed in Dameon Pierce and Dare Ogunbowale. Pierce had a 30 percent rush share with Ogunbowale being the primary pass-catching running back, with a five percent target share in Weeks 15-18. Mixon hasn’t participated in any of the offseason programs and training camp sessions with the foot/ankle issue that might’ve lingered into 2025.
Now that Mixon is required to miss at least the first four games of 2025 after being placed on the NFIL, he's likely to fall down drafts, and it might be worth taking him off your draft board.
Summary
Mixon is one of the top running back landmines in 2025, given the lingering ankle/foot injury and the potential for lost volume, meaning there will be little to no upside. If we take an optimistic view that Mixon misses the first month or so and returns in the middle of the season, maybe he volumes his way to fantasy relevance. The Texans’ backfield could look significantly different when Mixon returns, assuming Pierce and Nick Chubb garner the rushing workload, with Woody Marks taking on the passing downs.
Marks might fit well into Nick Caley’s offense because he ran 72.2 percent of his rush attempts in man/gap run concepts at USC. That’s similar to how the Rams used their running backs under Caley, which should translate well for Marks compared to the Klink Kubiak zone running scheme. Make Marks a late-round priority and fade Mixon because it’s typically not favorable to have injury optimism for a veteran running back.
There have been multiple positive reports from the Jaguars’ training camp about Bigsby, and Tuten’s price hasn’t popped off after battling a hamstring injury earlier in the preseason. We saw Etienne’s volume decline with the ascension of Bigsby last season. Bigsby saw his opportunities, especially in the rushing game, spike to 17.2 PPR/G in two games without Etienne.
Besides those two contests, Bigsby ate into Etienne’s workload across the season, most notably in the final five games. In 2023, Etienne had an elite workload, with a 74 percent snap share, 59 percent rush share, and a 12 percent target share.
Bigsby popped off in the final games of 2024, but let’s examine the backfield usage in Weeks 1-13. Etienne had a 54 percent snap share, 45 percent rush rate, and 11 percent target share in Weeks 1-13. Bigsby ate into Etienne’s rushing workload, with 44 percent of the team’s rush attempts.
In Weeks 14-18, we saw Bigsby take a slightly larger workload on the ground, accounting for a team-high 46 percent of the team’s rush attempts with Etienne at 38 percent. Etienne continued to garner the running back targets, suggesting that role might be minimal for Bigsby. If Etienne loses carries, he better be efficient, but that wasn’t the case, with -1.1 rushing fantasy points over expected (FPOE) per game and a -0.30 rushing yards over expected per attempt.
Summary
There’s too much hype, juicy metrics, and upside for Bigsby and Tuten to envision a season where Etienne shoves them aside and garners an elite workload like in 2023. Etienne might be the classic dead zone running back, where there’s name value and we’re living in the past, but not projecting the most probable outcomes moving forward. If Etienne hits, it’s likely a low-reward, high-risk type of option.
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