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Frank Ammirante's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/28/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Gunnar Henderson, and more.
We've got a full slate of MLB action on Wednesday, allowing us several opportunities to find spots to choose from for home run player prop bets today. Today's hitters include Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Gunnar Henderson, Ivan Herrera, and Nolan Schanuel. This is a mix of chalk and longshots, featuring a couple of sluggers, one lefty-masher, and a dart throw in a good spot.
The strategy behind choosing home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price in terms of betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on volatile outcomes like home runs.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, May 28, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/28/2025)
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Wednesday, May 28:
- Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
- Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
- Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
- Ivan Herrera, St. Louis Cardinals
- Nolan Schanuel, Los Angeles Angels
Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+185 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Aaron Judge is hitting above .400 after his 1st inning single vs the Angels 📈 pic.twitter.com/lLM621HMpx
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) May 28, 2025
Judge is having an absurd season so far, slashing .395/.488/.746 with 18 home runs in 54 games. This includes two homers in his last five matchups.
The Yankees slugger currently boasts a 22.9% barrel rate, which ranks in the 99th percentile, per Baseball Savant.
Up next for Judge is a matchup against Los Angeles Angels lefty Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi has registered a 4.59 xERA on the season and gives up a lot of hard contact, as highlighted by a 9.1% barrel rate, which ranks in the 40th percentile.
Kikuchi has been much worse vs right-handed hitters, allowing a .336 wOBA and 1.35 HR/9.
That's bad news against Judge, who has punished lefties this season, including an obscene 348 wRC+ and .667 ISO.
It also helps that Judge has faced Kikuchi often from the lefty's time with the Toronto Blue Jays, including two homers in 31 plate appearances.
While the price on Judge is always expensive, this feels like a good spot considering his success vs lefties and familiarity with Kikuchi.
Cal Raleigh OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+230 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Make that 19 homers for Cal Raleigh! pic.twitter.com/2XawrAgEHe
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 28, 2025
Raleigh has been the best hitting catcher in baseball, carrying a .258/.372/.603 slash with 19 home runs in 231 plate appearances. This includes two homers against the Washington Nationals last night, putting him at four dingers in his last six games.
This catcher crushes the ball, as highlighted by a 23.5% barrel rate, which ranks in the 99th percentile.
We've got an exploitable matchup on tap against Trevor Williams, who has had a tough time against lefties this season, featuring a .435 wOBA allowed and a 2.13 HR/9.
That will make it tough against the switch-hitting Raleigh, who has a 189 wRC+ and .391 ISO from the left side.
Even though this is a hefty price at (+230) odds, I'm willing to take a shot considering that Raleigh has been one of the elite power hitters in MLB and is currently in top form.
Gunnar Henderson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Gunnar Henderson lets out some frustration after he grounds out👀#Birdland pic.twitter.com/mbRI0l03KN
— Baseball’s Office (@baseballsoffice) May 27, 2025
Henderson is currently mired in a 2-for-12 mini-slump and hasn't homered since May 18th, putting his slash at .261/.325/.447 with seven home runs in 206 plate appearances.
With that said, this looks like a good spot for the Orioles' star shortstop to go yard for the eighth time of the year.
Henderson goes up against St. Louis Cardinals' righty Miles Mikolas, who has allowed a .322 wOBA and 1.03 HR/9 against lefties this season.
On the other hand, Henderson has performed well against righties, including a 185 wRC+ and .252 ISO.
While the power hasn't been up to standards for Henderson just yet, we have to remember that this is a hitter who slugged 37 home runs last season.
It's only a matter of time before Henderson gets on track. He's slowly showing signs, as highlighted by an .855 OPS in May.
We're getting pretty good value at this price of (+450) odds when you consider the matchup. It's also worth noting that Camden Yards has been one of the most homer-friendly ballparks in MLB this year, per Baseball Savant. With that in mind, let's ride with Henderson here.
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Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 50% off using code THANKS. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!Ivan Herrera OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+950 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ivan Herrera just got his 50th plate appearance. Here's where he ranks in baseball in:
AVG: .419 (1st)
OBP: .480 (2nd)
SLG: .907 (1st)
wOBA: .569 (1st)
wRC+: 271 (1st)
xwOBA: .473 (3rd)
xwOBAcon: .566 (3rd)Is that good? pic.twitter.com/YxW44tOpM7
— Jacob (@JacobE_STL) May 17, 2025
Here we have our first longshot home run prop in this column, featuring Cardinals' catcher Ivan Herrera, who currently has a .359/.429/.628 slash with five homers in 91 plate appearances.
This player has absolutely punished lefties this season, registering a .400/.500/.960 slash with a .560 ISO and 282 wRC+.
Playing in a home run-friendly ballpark like Camden Yards and against a left-handed pitcher in Cade Povich bodes well for our chances with this prop.
Povich has had a tough time against right-handers this season, featuring a .358 wOBA allowed and 1.69 HR/9.
It's also bad news that this pitcher has a .391 wOBA allowed at home this season.
When you think about Herrera's success against lefties along with the hitter-friendly ballpark and exploitable matchup vs Povich, you have to love the price of (+950) odds. Even with Herrera not being nearly as much of a power hitter as other names featured in today's column, this one is worth a sprinkle.
Nolan Schanuel OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+1000 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Things that Nolan Schanuel has done well lately:
- Getting on base EARLY (.381 BA in first PA this season, 5th best in MLB)
- Making contact with pitches in the zone (4.9% SwSt% this season, 2nd best in AL)
- Avoiding swings & misses (no whiffs on a pitch in 15 PAs) pic.twitter.com/qERpZqVj00— swilly ☻ (@swillysports) May 21, 2025
The last home run prop on this page is a dart throw at great odds on Angels' first baseman Nolan Schanuel, who currently has a .279/.375/.391 slash with three homers in 210 plate appearances.
The reason why I'm targeting Schanuel despite the lack of power is due to the matchup against the Yankees' righty Clarke Schmidt.
This pitcher has struggled against lefties this season, as highlighted by a .360 wOBA allowed.
As one of the few left-handed hitters in the Angels lineup, Schanuel is worth a look at (+1000) odds.
You have to like that Schanuel has performed well against righties, featuring a 137 wRC+ with each of his three homers against them.
Let's take a shot at this appealing price with that in mind. It's a good idea to mix in a longshot home run prop with the usual suspects because you want to give yourself a chance to hit it big on a nice payout.
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