The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Who to Consider Dropping for Fantasy Baseball (Week 8)

May 19, 2025

The Cut List for Week 8 of 2025. Jamie analyzes potential fantasy baseball busts, overvalued players, and injured players who you may want to consider dropping.

Welcome back to The Cut List as we head into Week 8 of the 2025 season. For every add, there is usually also a drop. For those unfamiliar, this is our weekly article examining players whom fantasy managers might consider cutting from their teams and struggling players who warrant a closer look.

We'll examine players worthy of a drop, those worth monitoring for potential replacements, and individuals on the hot seat who are worth holding onto ... for now. Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone.

As the season rolls on, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord chat rooms, or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo). Maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Tyler O'Neill - OF, Baltimore Orioles - 47% rostered

O'Neill was scratched from Friday's lineup due to a shoulder issue. He also didn't feature in yesterday's game. So far, he's avoided going on the IL (injured list) for a second time this year. The IL is something O'Neill has been far too familiar with in his career.

Orioles outfielder Tyler O’Neill was scratched from Friday’s lineup because of “left shoulder discomfort,” manager Brandon Hyde said. https://t.co/5H8oh9NmNc

— The Baltimore Sun (@baltimoresun) May 16, 2025

Since playing a career-high 138 games in 2021, O'Neill has averaged 94 games a season. Although O'Neill had something of a comeback year in 2024, he's not come close to replicating his 2021 season. This year is no better. In fact, things are going in the wrong direction.

In 24 games, O'Neill has two home runs, 10 RBI, nine runs, and two stolen bases. He's hitting .188/.280/.325, which is well down on his career .244/.321/.463 slash line. And O'Neill isn't exactly a mainstay in the Orioles lineup when healthy.

He certainly plays more than he sits. Since returning from the IL last Friday (following a neck injury), O'Neill started four of the Orioles' subsequent six games. The two times he sat were against right-handed pitchers (RHP).

With Cedric Mullins and Heston Kjerstad both left-handed hitters (LHH), it would be no surprise if O'Neill continues to sit a couple of times a week moving forward, especially if his numbers don't improve. While a closer look suggests his numbers will improve, they likely won't by much.

His .245 BABIP is down from his .289 BABIP over the previous three seasons, when he hit .234/.321/.445. O'Neill's .220 xBA (expected batting average) still ranks in the 14th percentile. The only real positives are O'Neill's .470 xSLG (69th percentile) and 16.4% Barrel% (91st percentile).

Verdict: You draft O'Neill for his annual Opening Day home run. Then hope he can carry some form into the season. He hasn't in 2025. Given how much time O'Neill has spent on the IL in recent seasons and without an everyday role, O'Neill isn't someone I'd continue rostering in anything but deep leagues.

Tanner Houck - SP, Boston Red Sox - 31% rostered

There's a running theme in this week's Cut List: struggling starting pitchers who happen to have been placed on the IL this week after a dreadful outing. On Monday, Houck got blasted for 11 runs (2.1 IP) for the second time this season. On Wednesday, he was put on the IL.

The Red Sox announce they have placed SP Tanner Houck on the 15-day IL with a right flexor pronator strain.

Houck has an 8.04 ERA through nine starts after posting an 11.20 ERA in four spring training outings. pic.twitter.com/AlYyYutfc5

— Gordo (@BOSSportsGordo) May 14, 2025

Thankfully, Houck's MRI came back clean. We still don't know how long Houck will be out for. He's hardly pitched well when healthy, even before Monday's shellacking. On the year, Houck has a 0-3 W-L record, 8.04 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, and 32 Ks (34.2 IP).

Before Monday, Houck had a 6.10 ERA. If he only pitched through elbow discomfort on Monday, it wouldn't explain the previous eight starts. That's not to say Houck hasn't been unfortunate so far. His 4.61 xFIP and 4.61 SIERA hint that Houck should have a better than 8.04 ERA.

Even if Houck returns soon and his numbers normalise a bit, a pitcher with a ~4.50 ERA needs to offer more. Houck's 15.8% K% (13th percentile) is down from his 20.7 K% last year. Even then, it only ranked in the 32nd percentile in 2024.

The lack of strikeouts hurt Houck's fantasy value. He needs volume to make up for it, and an elbow issue isn't going to help with that. Even if we see Houck back on the mound by early June, there isn't much being offered by the Red Sox starter.

Verdict: Houck wasn't going to match last year's 3.12 ERA. But no one expected what we've seen. Maybe the elbow issue has been lingering for some time. There are a lot of questions hanging over Houck. One that has a definitive answer is if he's droppable. That's a yes. 

Hold For Now

Ozzie Albies - 2B, Atlanta Braves - 97% rostered

Throughout the preseason, I was down on the top-tier second basemen. It had nothing to do with talent. It was about their respective ADP. Position scarcity meant that Albies was going earlier in drafts than he should have. He's not performed anything like fantasy managers hoped.

Albies has been alternating years of health and productivity with years without either. In 2025, Albies has so far been healthy. But he's been far from productive. In 46 games, Albies has five homers, 16 RBI, 23 runs, and five steals while hitting .224/.281/.328.

One reason why Albies is worth giving more time to is the position scarcity. There aren't many second basemen who can hit 30 home runs, something Albies has done twice. His 162-game pace is for 18 homers, 56 RBI, 81 runs, and 18 steals. Not great, but not awful by any means.

It's his batting average that's been the real drag. Hope that Albies' numbers will improve significantly may be in vain. His .228 xBA and .356 xSLG don't hint at him being a victim of bad luck. They both rank in the 20th percentile or worse.

If we look at Albies' splits this year and throughout his career, they tell a story.

That story is one of struggles against LHP. That's been an area of strength for Albies before this year. His numbers against RHP are down a bit in 2025. But if he hit lefties as well as he usually does, Albies would be putting up numbers like we're more accustomed to.

That's not much to cling to if you're expecting a rebound. Albies has been one of the best second basemen in baseball when he's healthy. Providing we don't get news that he's dealing with some health issue, fantasy managers should give Albies a longer leash. But the leash is slowly shortening.

Max Meyer - SP, Miami Marlins - 49% rostered

After five starts, Meyer looked like he was en route to having a breakout season. He had a 2.10 ERA and struck out 41 batters (30.0 IP). Since then, Meyer has struggled. He now has a 3-4 W-L record, 4.47 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 59 Ks (50.1 IP). Not a statline that's a definite hold, you'd think.

I'm not anointing Meyer as the next big thing. But Meyer could still be on his way to a breakout season. He's got a 2.96 xFIP and 3.17 SIERA, suggesting his ERA is inflated. We shouldn't have expected his 2.10 ERA would sustain, but there's been an overcorrection.

Even though the strikeouts have slowed, Meyer's 27.3% K% ranks in the 78th percentile. Meyer also has an excellent ground-ball rate (53.2% GB%), which ranks in the 85th percentile. A high strikeout, high ground-ball rate pitcher is like gold dust. There are some issues, though.

Meyer also has a high hard-hit rate. His 48.9% Hard-Hit% ranks in the eighth percentile. Meyer also has a .264 xBA against him, ranking in the 32nd percentile. That's largely been down to his fastball being hit hard. The good news is that he's throwing his fastball less.

After throwing it 39.6% of the time last year, Meyer is using his fastball just 20.7% this year. Meyer's fastball had a .430 wOBA against it in 2024 and a .493 wOBA against it this year. Providing Meyer maintains the reduced usage of his fastball, he should be able to have success.

If Meyer's arsenal usage changes or his recent struggles continue well into June, then we should reconsider his fantasy usage. Otherwise, he'd be left as a streaming option in shallower leagues.

On the Hot Seat

Aaron Nola - SP, Philadelphia Phillies - 91% rostered

Following Wednesday's hammering, Nola was placed on the IL with a sprained ankle. Something which occurred before his outing in midweek. Some cynics have suggested it's just a cover to get him rest following a rough start to 2025. But it would explain why he got hit so badly on Wednesday.

Aaron Nola start streak comes to an end. First stint on IL since 2017. The ankle injury happened during a workout last Thursday.

They thought he could pitch through it. He said he started overcompensating on the mound in other areas to be comfortable pic.twitter.com/gZvv96klZJ

— Jason Dumas (@JDumasReports) May 16, 2025

When he returns from injury, Nola will look to improve his 1-7 W-L record, 6.16 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and 52 Ks (49.2 IP). Even if you're willing to give him a pass for Wednesday, Nola wasn't pitching well beforehand. Prior to his Wednesday start, Nola had a 4.89 ERA.

Nola finds himself on the Hot Seat, and not someone I'm dropping because of his underlying numbers. Nola has a 3.59 xFIP and 3.67 SIERA, considerably better than his ERA. Nola's 23.6% K% is the lowest since he debuted in 2015, but it still ranks in the 59th percentile.

The injury Nola has sustained isn't one that should have long-lasting implications. Provided his ankle heals, Nola should be back in short order. He's still got a great shot at making 30 starts for a seventh consecutive full season. That reliability has been a blessing and a curse.

Given no pitcher has thrown more innings than Nola over the last five years, it's fair to think we're seeing some regression due to the heavy workload. Nola wouldn't be the first pitcher to experience that. The numbers suggest we are witnessing regression, even if the results are worse than they should be.

Despite that, his underlying numbers still offer some hope that Nola can be a solid MLB pitcher. Not the SP2 he was drafted as. Nor as a top-40 starting pitcher. But enough hope is provided with a little scratch beneath the surface.

With Nola landing on the IL, fantasy managers' decisions are easier. You can put him on your IL and wait for a return. If Nola continues to struggle in a few starts after he's back, then I think we can safely say he's done for the year. Until then, there's enough hope to warrant holding.

Reader Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread or over on the RotoBaller Discord chat rooms. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X and we'll endeavor to cover some requests each week.

Bryce Miller - SP, Seattle Mariners - 82% rostered

Miller is the third and final injured pitcher to feature this week. And it's a similar story for Miller. A shellacking this week came on the back of some disappointing performances to start the season. That all culminated in being put on the IL this week.

Miller has suggested his injury is something he's been dealing with since the end of last year. I'm not going to suggest Miller isn't truthful in that. But any elbow issue last year didn't impact his performance. Miller had a 1.86 ERA in his final 10 starts of 2024 (58.0 IP).

Bryce Miller on his injury.

Yikes.#FunnellVision pic.twitter.com/DvwfY38z7i

— Dave L Funnell (@sportz_nutt51) May 15, 2025

It may have just gotten worse over time. It may be a completely different problem. All we know is that Miller has struggled this year and is now facing a spell on the sidelines. How long that spell is remains to be seen.

As disappointing as Miller has been, the IL stint could be good for fantasy managers. While I have no issue if he's already been dropped, the Mariners putting Miller on the IL means fantasy managers can do the same with him.

Providing he's back in relatively short order, give Miller a few weeks back on the mound. If the struggles remain, then moving on from him would seem like the smart move. If you've held Miller and he can pitch with a healthy elbow for the remainder of 2025, not dropping him will seem like a shrewd move.

Kristian Campbell - 2B/OF, Boston Red Sox - 64% rostered

Campbell's red-hot start to his MLB career seems like a long time ago. Campbell ended April with a .301/.407/.495 slash line and 153 wRC+. In May, Campbell is hitting .085/.104/.149 with a -45 wRC+.

In simple terms, Campbell has not been hitting the ball as hard recently as he was to start the season. We can see from the below that although his soft contact has reduced, so has the amount of hard contact he's making.

There could be any number of factors for that. The most likely scenario is that Major League pitchers are adjusting to Campbell and pitching to his weaknesses. It's only a small sample, but Campbell has seen a four percentage point drop in the number of fastballs he's getting this month.

Another reason, which I have alluded to recently, is that the recent dysfunction in the Red Sox clubhouse is having an impact. The whole "Rafael Devers moving to first base" saga played out publicly. And we've now seen reports that Campbell has been taking reps at first base.

It's difficult enough for rookies in the Majors, but trying to learn a new position while doing so would surely have an impact. Add in all the outside noise and a senior player in the clubhouse openly airing his frustrations with management, and it's not going to be a great learning environment for a rookie.

Dealing with the outside noise in such a bright spotlight should help Campbell in the long term. But while it's not something we can quantify, that drama is something that isn't going to help him get out of this slump.

What to do with Campbell might depend on what position you're using him at in your lineups. If he's filling in as a second baseman, there may not be anyone worth adding off waivers to replace him with. If he's filling in an outfield spot, then you will likely be able to find a better option on waivers.

Shane Baz - SP, Tampa Bay Rays - 60% rostered

We end with a pitcher not on the IL. As you would expect, given his inclusion in this article, Baz has struggled in 2025. He has at least stayed healthy. I wrote about Baz in the offseason and how I was concerned that his home ballpark this year would be a problem. The early signs are that it is the case.

Baz has only made two starts on the road, producing a 2.31 ERA (11.2 IP). At George M. Steinbrenner Field, Baz has a 6.03 ERA from his six starts (31.1 IP). We're only looking at small samples, but this could be a trend we see throughout 2025.

Baz has a 3.87 xFIP and 3.73 SIERA, so his 5.02 ERA does look unlucky. However, I had other concerns outside of his home field. Baz underwent Tommy John Surgery (TJS) in 2023. Last year, he totaled 118.2 IP across Triple-A and the Majors, a career high.

It's highly unlikely we'll see Baz top 150 innings this year. The TJS also appeared to impact Baz's strikeout numbers last year. In the two seasons before the surgery, Baz had a 37.9% K% in the Minors (170.1 IP). In 2024, that dropped to a 21.6% K%. This year, Baz is up to a 25.3% K%.

When discussing Baz last weekend, I summed him up as someone you start on the road, but bench at home against better lineups. Especially when facing multiple LHH, given the short porch in right field. Until we see something different from Baz in his home starts, that philosophy won't be changing.

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