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Joey looks at 3 starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers off to hot starts in 2025. Are Reese Olson, Luis L. Ortiz, and Shane Smith for real?
It's not a surprise to see several pitchers break out in the early going. It happens every year, and those breakout pitchers wind up helping fantasy managers win championships. In 2025, there are plenty of pitchers who certainly have breakout potential. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has arguably been the best pitcher in the National League, and youngsters like Kris Bubic, Casey Mize, and Matthew Liberatore are finally showing their upside.
In this article, we will dive into the strong starts of Reese Olson, Luis L. Ortiz, and Shane Smith. All three pitchers have thrown the ball well to start the season and are showing signs of a breakout campaign. Olson, Ortiz, and Smith are all rostered in under 65 percent of Yahoo! leagues, meaning they might still be available in some leagues.
So, should fantasy managers run to the waiver wire to add these breakout pitchers? Will Olson, Ortiz, and Smith keep up their strong numbers for most of the year? Let's dive in and find out.
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Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers
2025 Stats: 38 2/3 IP, 3.03 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 1.216 WHIP, 40 K
61% Rostered
Olson has always put up solid numbers on the mound in his career. He finished with a 3.99 ERA and 103 strikeouts across 21 games (18 starts) in his rookie campaign in 2023 and then had a 3.53 ERA and 101 strikeouts across 22 starts last year. Therefore, the Tigers pitcher entered the 2025 season as a potential breakout pick.
It surely looks like Olson could finish with career numbers on the mound in the early going. He has a 3.03 ERA across 38 2/3 innings pitched this season and has given up zero runs in three of his last four starts. His best outing this year came back on April 23 when he tossed 7 1/3 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts against a terrific San Diego Padres offense.
Although Olson struggled a bit in his first few starts in 2025, he has looked like a different pitcher over the past few weeks. His 33.5 whiff rate and 5.9 percent barrel rate both rank extremely well, and the right-hander has struck out at least seven batters in three straight outings.
The biggest thing working for Olson to begin the season is the effectiveness of his off-speed pitches. Both his changeup (54.3 percent whiff rate) and slider (45.3 percent whiff rate) are putting hitters away at an elite clip.
It really feels like Reese Olson is being slept on! pic.twitter.com/tJ4GplAlaz
— Pitch Profiler (@pitchprofiler) May 5, 2025
The 25-year-old is also throwing his changeup about three percent more than last year, which has helped him put up zeros in recent outings. That pitch has held opposing hitters to a .057 batting average and a .114 slugging through his first seven starts. With a 33.3 percent putaway rate and 17 strikeouts on that pitch alone, Olson's changeup has been a true difference maker for him this season.
Verdict: It has been awesome to watch Olson grow into an outstanding pitcher over the years, and it seems like he is putting it all together in 2025. Of course, there is some stuff that the right-hander needs to improve on to be that consistent, dominant pitcher in the majors. His sinker isn't doing much damage this year, as opposing hitters are batting .333 and slugging .400 against that pitch.
However, his increased changeup usage and high whiff rate are encouraging signs for him in the early going. As a result, fantasy managers should pick up Olson if he is still available on waivers. His pitching numbers are for real.
Luis L. Ortiz, Cleveland Guardians
2025 Stats: 37 1/3 IP, 5.30 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 1.420 WHIP, 40 K
20% Rostered
Ortiz started the 2024 season as a reliever before transitioning to a starter role. He made 15 starts for Cleveland toward the end of last year and showed some encouraging things as a starter. He had a 3.22 ERA, 1.004 WHIP, and 67 strikeouts across 86 2/3 innings pitched. Those strong numbers earned him a rotation spot in 2025.
After posting solid numbers as a starter late last season, some fantasy managers believed a breakout campaign could be in store for Ortiz in 2025. However, the 26-year-old had some mixed results on the mound in the early going. There have been some outstanding outings and some awful ones for the right-hander to start the year.
Some of his good outings included 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball with 10 strikeouts against the Kansas City Royals on April 12 and 6 1/3 scoreless innings with five strikeouts against the Minnesota Twins on April 30. When Ortiz does not have his best stuff, though, he struggles badly.
Luis L Ortiz shut down the Twins over 6.1 IP with 5 K pic.twitter.com/UWuAKfW3mR
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) May 1, 2025
He allowed seven runs on nine hits in a start against the San Diego Padres back on March 31 and recently gave up six runs (five earned runs) with three walks and four strikeouts against the Washington Nationals on Tuesday. Those two rough outings are why Ortiz has a 5.30 ERA through his first seven starts.
Nevertheless, there are some things to like about the right-hander to start the season. He throws five pitches consistently (four-seam, slider, cutter, changeup, and sinker), and his increased changeup usage has been a pleasant surprise. Ortiz only threw his changeup 0.9 percent of the time in 2024. That number is up to 12.9 percent in 2025.
That changeup has been a big pitch for the 26-year-old so far. Opposing hitters are batting just .100 against that pitch in the early going while whiffing on it 28.2 percent of the time. The only other difference in Ortiz's pitch mix this season is that he's throwing his sinker 15 percent less than he did in 2024, which is key because hitters had an expected .486 slugging against that pitch in 2024.
Verdict: Ortiz has pitched slightly better than his 5.30 ERA suggests, considering his FIP currently sits at 4.21. Outside of those two rough outings, the right-hander has been solid for the most part. He has thrown two quality starts and has allowed three runs or fewer in four of his seven starts this season.
However, Ortiz might be a streaming option for the time being. His increased changeup usage could help him post solid numbers in 2025, but his poor metrics suggest that a breakout season might not be in store. His average exit velocity (92.5 mph), walk rate (11.5 percent), barrel rate (13.2 percent), and hard-hit rate (47.2 percent) all rank in the 21st percentile or worse.
Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox
2025 Stats: 37 1/3 IP, 2.41 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 1.152 WHIP, 31 K
20% Rostered
When the Chicago White Sox were on the clock with the first overall pick in the Rule 5 Draft this past winter, they had their eyes set on Smith. The right-hander started his career in the Brewers' minor league system and posted solid numbers in his final two years there.
He finished with a 1.96 ERA and 86 strikeouts in 38 appearances out of the bullpen in 2023 and followed up that campaign with a 3.05 ERA and 113 strikeouts in 32 games (16 starts) at Double-A and Triple-A. But Smith's potential as a starter is why the White Sox honed in on him with the first overall pick in that Rule 5 Draft.
The 25-year-old eventually made Chicago's Opening Day roster and has shown why the White Sox loved him so much. Smith currently owns a 2.41 ERA and 31 strikeouts across his first seven career starts. In those seven outings, the right-hander has allowed two earned runs or less six times, including five innings of two-run ball with five strikeouts his last time out against the Kansas City Royals on Monday.
First 4 innings of Shane Smith’s first 7 MLB starts:
Opponents are slugging .191.
Just completely ridiculous. pic.twitter.com/DIHdirER7U— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) May 6, 2025
Most of Smith's success in the early going is due to the effectiveness of his top four pitches (four-seam, changeup, slider, and curveball). Opposing hitters are hitting under .210 on all four pitches, and his fastball/changeup/slider combination has fooled hitters to start his MLB career.
If there has been one pitch that has really worked in Smith's favor to begin his career, it would be his changeup. He throws it 21.7 percent of the time, and hitters have certainly had a hard time adjusting to it. That could be because his changeup averages 90.1 mph with a 32.8-inch vertical drop. Both numbers are certainly way above league average.
Verdict: Watching Smith pitch well to start his major league career is cool to see. The biggest question is whether the right-hander can continue this for the rest of the season. While his strikeout rate (19.9 percent) and chase rate (21.6 percent) both rank poorly to begin the year, he's someone fantasy managers can start in the right matchup.
He isn't necessarily a must roster in 12-plus team leagues because wins might be hard to come by. But in deeper leagues, he should certainly be picked up. His changeup is a significant weapon, and the potential is there for him to finish with solid numbers in his first major league season. With a start against the Marlins upcoming later this week, he's a great streaming option for Saturday.
It is also important to note that Smith's expected ERA (3.88) is 147 points higher than his actual ERA (2.41). As a result, some regression could be coming the right-hander's way in the coming weeks.
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