RADIO
No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5) at No. 1 Detroit Lions (15-2)
Detroit spent a restful bye watching Jayden Daniels and the Commanders squeak past Tampa Bay on a last-second field goal. The Zane Gonzalez kick doinked true as Washington converted a trio of fourth-down attempts and capitalized on key mistakes from the Bucs. That’s the script and approach needed to keep up with fellow fourth-down aficionado, Dan Campbell.
While Daniels’ rookie campaign has been electrifying, this should be Detroit’s game to lose. The WAS-TB game was far tighter and it still boiled down to Tampa beating itself.
If one offense gets too cutesy and creative with tricks and fires off an errant throw or lateral then that could make the difference. Jake Bates has the special teams edge over Gonzalez and Detroit’s defense looked far better with LB Alex Anzalone anchoring the group.
Bettors will note that Detroit opened as 7.5-point favorites and that line has already moved two additional points in the Lions’ favor. I’m calling this a 38-27 win for DET.
No. 4 Los Angeles Rams (10-7) at No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
The Eagles took care of business against Green Bay, leaning on their ground game and stout defense to grind out a win with zero turnovers. They did lose LB Nakobe Dean to a patellar tendon injury, though. They didn’t play with particular urgency or do much throwing in Jalen Hurts’ first game back from the concussion, but perhaps this next game will demand more of them.
And the Rams came out firing on offense and continued to play stifling defense. Not counting Week 18’s pseudo-bye week, the Rams have held their last four opponents to under 10 points. Their latest was their greatest, with Jared Verse and company forcing nine sacks of Sam Darnold, including a strip sack that led to Verse’s scoop-and-score.
While the Rams have played well of late, winning a trench war against Philadelphia on their turf is a big ask. Can the pass rush break through while also maintaining their lanes against Hurts and Saquon Barkley? Then, the defensive backs would have to win against A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Each team had at least seven penalties against it in the Wild Card Weekend win and suffered zero turnovers. While Philly has the initial edge, this could easily boil down to who avoids “the big mistake.” Whether that’s an ill-timed fumble or a long pass-interference call remains to be seen.
Philly sits as six-point favorites at the moment while the game total opening line of 45.5 has fallen to 44 at many sportsbooks. It’s sensible given how well both defenses are playing. I’ve got this as a 24-20 win for Philly.
No. 4 Houston Texans (10-7) at No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
The Texans surprised many, including myself, by storming back to a 32-12 victory over the Chargers in the Wild Card round after looking sluggish down 6-0 early. A timely throw on a fumbled snap by C.J. Stroud got them rolling and the defense clamped down until the final whistle, forcing four interceptions from Justin Herbert.
But Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are not Herbert or the Chargers. K.C. did well to reinforce the WR corps with DeAndre Hopkins and has a healthy Marquise Brown in the fold alongside a growing Xavier Worthy.
The Texans have lost four straight to K.C., including a 27-19 loss in Week 16 where the Chiefs never trailed. Tank Dell was their leading receiver in that one and his season is over, with Houston lacking any notable “next man up.”
With Arrowhead Stadium behind them, Andy Reid’s top-tier management, and loads of postseason experience, the Chiefs should handle business as eight-point favorites. An already-low game total of 43.5 at open has dropped to 41.5 or 42 as bettors are expecting K.C. to squeeze the Texans. This writer has it as a 30-17 win for the Chiefs.
No. 3 Baltimore Ravens (12-5) at No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Baltimore and Buffalo each enjoyed low-stress victories to open up their 2024-25 postseason campaigns. This will bring the MVP debate to one field as Josh Allen defends home field against Lamar Jackson. It’s been a long time since Baltimore’s 35-10 Week 4 win over Buffalo when Allen only went 16-of-29 on pass attempts.
The biggest story from that contest was Derrick Henry rushing for 199 yards on 24 carries, which is quite similar to the 26-186-2 stat line from last week’s win over Pittsburgh. Buffalo backers will hope that LBs Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard, who were absent in Week 4, will make a world of difference in dealing with Henry and Jackson on the ground.
The Bills have yet to lose at home and Zay Flowers may not be available for Baltimore as well. But as we said before, this game surely is decided by which of Allen or Jackson is up to the task.
This will likely be the coldest game temperature that Baltimore has dealt with as well. Mix in that neither Justin Tucker nor Tyler Bass have been in great form this season and we could have a messy one.
We still side with the undefeated home team with the mafia and familiar weather in their sails to the tune of a 30-27 victory. That said, the betting market thinks otherwise. Buffalo opened as 1.5-point favorites at home but that has flipped to it being 1.5-point underdogs as of Wednesday afternoon.
No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) at No. 1 Detroit Lions (15-2)
Some will say Minnesota getting rolled by the Rams takes away from how well Detroit’s defense played in its 31-9 win over Minny in Week 18, but this writer won’t discount it. Beating Philadelphia will start by taking away the easy early down runs that set up manageable third downs.
If that’s the case then can Jalen Hurts’ arm keep pace with the Detroit juggernaut? Does the Lions offense have a healthy David Montgomery to join Jahmyr Gibbs in the backfield? There are stars all over the field, but Detroit’s home-field advantage and special teams edge should tilt the scale.
Jake Bates has been great this season but Philadelphia’s Jake Elliott went an iffy 28-of-36 on field-goal attempts. While he nailed all three FGs against the Packers in the Wild Card round, his longest attempt was 32 yards. After going 7-of-8 from 50 or more yards in 2023, Elliott went a horrid 1-of-7 this year. The Lions should edge this one. We’ll call it 33-27.
No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4) at No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
Nothing’s changed on this front, as Josh Allen and the Bills finally learn to not give Patrick Mahomes the final two-minute drill. Buffalo’s 30-21 win in mid-November was only the beginning. Kansas City’s 327 yards per game ranked 17th in the NFL and doesn’t seem calibrated for a true shootout.
But we must leave the door open for Marquise Brown to be up to speed alongside DeAndre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy for a formidable WR trio to run with Travis Kelce, who is a magnet for defensive soft spots. Who wins the penalty war? The turnover battle?
Last week, we pointed out how Allen is riding career-best marks in terms of interception and sack rates, which has helped Buffalo lead the NFL with a +24 turnover margin. (The Chiefs are middle of the pack at +6.) If Allen can’t get past these 2024 Chiefs then perhaps the meme magic is real after all. Let’s give Buffalo the 34-27 win.
Super Bowl LIX: No. 1 Detroit Lions (15-2) vs. No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4)
This writer is still lining up a rematch of that 48-42 Buffalo win from a month ago. Once again, that feels close to the Super Bowl script even if the first quarter moves slower before the tricks come out. Who wants to set a line for total attempts at converting on fourth down?
Star DE Aidan Hutchinson has made strong statements about returning from a broken leg if the Lions make the Super Bowl. Flushing Allen from the pocket is only the beginning but if Hutch can collapse the action from the edge alongside Za’Darius Smith then Detroit can shift the field after logging zero sacks on Allen in the recent contest.
Detroit’s Jake Bates has nailed nearly 90 percent of his field goals this year while Tyler Bass has been inconsistent, only going 7-of-11 on kicks between 40-49 yards and even missed one under 30 yards. Both teams protect the ball well and can rip off chunk plays, meaning they don’t need much time to find field-goal range.
If Detroit’s defense has a healthy Anzalone and near-100% Hutch on the field then we side with the Lions in a thriller, but this can change if Buffalo convincingly beats Baltimore and Kansas City. There’s no doubt that Buffalo’s road to the SB is tougher than anything the NFC can offer. For now, I have it as a 34-31 win for the Lions.
