December 26, 2024

Not long ago, Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Trea Turner was a consensus top-five overall pick in fantasy. Since joining the Phillies in 2023, his performance has trended down slightly, highlighted by the worst slump of his career in the first half of 2023. He also missed six weeks in 2024 with a hamstring strain. Turner now appears to be trading off some batting average in pursuit of more power. He's hit .279 across the past two seasons, down from his .320-.330 peak a few years ago. Turner's BABIP with Philly is .320, down from .340+ from 2020-22; this tracks with his batted ball distribution as he's hitting 38% fly balls versus 33-34% in his peak years. He's chasing (33->38%) and whiffing more (11->14% SwStr) with Philly as well. Age may also be driving these trends. Turner is now 31, and while his sprint speed remains elite (96th percentile), even that has ticked down slightly. He's running a bit less these days, partly because he's been batting second for the Phillies, behind door stopper Kyle Schwarber. Overall, everything has declined slightly, but Turner still projects as a low 20/20's guy with good run production and an average that marginally helps us, even if it is no longer elite. Steamer is projecting Turner with a .334 wOBA, 22 homers, 22 steals over 150 games. That makes him a top-five shortstop and a solid late second or early third-rounder in most mixed fantasy leagues, which is line with his current NFBC ADP of 24 for upcoming fantasy drafts.--Michael Cecchini - RotoBaller