FAAB Waiver Wire Bidding - Fantasy Football Pickups to Target for Week 4

September 25, 2024

Nick Mariano's fantasy football waiver wire FAAB bidding guide for Week 4 (2024) -- how many FAAB dollars (free agent acquisition budget) to spend on waivers.

Three weeks of the 2024 fantasy football season have some of you taking up other hobbies but we here press on preparing for another waiver run. Folks might start to panic now so be sure you're watching for who shortsighted teams are dropping too. As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).

As a caveat, these prices do not indicate how much these free-agent players will go for, especially early on. Each league values players differently so you must add the proper context -- context is king. These values provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player, with different categories of bids to reflect potential team-need situations.

Projected league appetite, total bench spots, and the overall depth of your league will determine your FAAB bids. By now you should have a decent idea of what FAAB runs in your league look like in terms of how many active teams and aggressors there are. With that in mind, here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 4.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks

Sam Darnold (QB, MIN) - 28% rostered

FAAB Bid: 4-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-10%

Darnold only threw for 181 yards in Week 3 but tossing four touchdowns allows us to forgive him. He is set to undergo an MRI on his left knee after being rolled up by Danielle Hunter but returned to the contest and looked fine. (The MRI did not show anything scary.)

In a season with depressed passing offense/scoring, Darnold has thrown for multiple TDs in his first three games. His next two games won’t be easy, with the Vikes traveling to Lambeau before hosting his old friends, the Jets.

Then there’s a Week 6 bye, meaning some of you might not need to add Darnold until after that if you think he’s still available. But by then the buzz may be too great, especially since T.J. Hockenson could be working back after the bye and Jordan Addison should rejoin the party soon.

Justin Fields (QB, PIT) - 16% rostered

FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-8%

Fields connected on 25-of-32 pass attempts for 245 yards and a score, throwing a tipped interception that wasn’t on him. He also added six carries for six yards and a rushing touchdown in the victory.

Now 3-0, Fields is surely locked in as the starter even when Russell Wilson is healthy. Mike Tomlin might not feel the need to say it and “punish” Wilson before he’s gotten a chance to play, but slicing up a 3-0 squad seems suboptimal.

Fields has 28 carries and a 73.3% completion rate through three games, which gives him paths to success through the air and ground. You may not want to watch it unfold, but rostering Fields going into Indianapolis for Week 4 should yield another decent day.

Andy Dalton (QB, CAR) - 4% rostered

FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%

Making his first start of 2024 after Bryce Young was benched, Dalton picked apart the Raiders for 319 yards and three TDs on 26-of-37 passing. He elevated Diontae Johnson into a stud but did lose Adam Thielen to a hamstring injury on a 31-yard TD. But Xavier Legette is exciting and Jonathon Brooks could enter the picture at any time. Dalton faces Cincinnati next week as he looks to improve to 3-1 versus his former team.

(Daniel Jones has 19 carries and Bo Nix has 18 through the first three games. You might not want Dimes or Nix, especially with NYG facing Dallas on a short week and the Broncos facing the Jets. But we can’t ignore it.)

...And maybe, just maybe, we see Tyler Huntley get the nod for Miami:

A little taste of what Tyler Huntley can do with the ball in his hands.

Snoop can bring some unique dual-threat qualities to Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins offense — if they need him to enter for Skylar Thompson while Tua recovers.pic.twitter.com/aNa897bCM7

— David Furones (@DavidFurones_) September 16, 2024

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs

Bucky Irving (RB, TB) - 35% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 25-30%
Aggressive Bid: 30-45%
Desperation Bid: 45-60%

Irving once again ran like the superior back over Rachaad White in a Week 3 loss to Denver, gaining 70 yards on nine carries with three catches for 14 yards sprinkled in. White only mustered 17 yards on six carries, with 18 receiving yards on five catches.

The scales are tipping towards Irving for running work and they gave him a two-minute drill as well. White still holds a PPR edge with 12 catches on 13 targets through three games, but getting outcarried despite playing more than double the snaps is discouraging for White.

Irving being on the field less but getting the ball at a higher clip is the kind of momentum we can roll with. Todd Bowles said on Monday that Irving has earned more work moving forward.

#Bucs HC Todd Bowles on why Rachaad White out-snapped Bucky Irving 42-18:

“We were behind. We threw it a little bit more, Rachaad’s probably a better pass protector at this point, but Bucky has definitely earned more reps.”

Bowles has an 80% reliability rating on usage/workload… pic.twitter.com/VmhGOs7aUE

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 23, 2024

While Irving does have a 6.2 YPC and 3.9 yards after contact per carry, NFL Pro still gives him -2 Rushing Yards Over Expectation. (White has a 2.1 YPC, 2.3 YACo/Att, and -46 RYOE.) If you need a startable RB in the next couple of weeks then prioritize Irving. If you can sit on an add and want pure top-5 upside then you need this next guy.

Braelon Allen (RB, NYJ) - 36% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 10-15%
Aggressive Bid: 15-20%
Desperation Bid: 20-30%

Allen continues to shine on limited work, averaging five yards per carry on 11 totes while hauling in all three of his targets for 13 yards. Breece Hall had 83 total yards and a TD on 20 touches but the Jets were happy to lean on their rushers with the Patriots offense unable to do anything.

Allen posting 11 carries and eight routes run on 23 total snaps while posting stellar efficiency makes him a must-own handcuff with low-end standalone value in the flex. If the Jets' defense meets its potential then positive gamescripts should yield opportunities for Allen to see action beside Hall.

Rico Dowdle (RB, DAL) - 42% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 8-12%
Aggressive Bid: 12-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-25%

It appears the Cowboys are coming around to Dowdle being their most talented back, though trailing heavily throughout the last couple of games benefits the more spry back. Dowdle was given 37 snaps to Ezekiel Elliott’s 15 and Deuce Vaughn’s five here, per PFF. Fullback Hunter Luepke siphoned some passing-down work as well, though, as this is a messy situation.

A game they control should see Zeke absorbing ground-and-pound snaps but Dowdle averaging four yards a carry with a trio of catches for 24 yards in Week 3 feels good. You aren’t taking Dowdle to comfortably play him next week, but rather as a hedge to earn more work down the stretch. The Cowboys will face the Giants, Steelers, and Broncos before their Week 7 bye.

Cordarrelle Patterson (RB, PIT) - 1% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-15%

Patterson took some slot reps for himself early in Week 3’s victory and then absorbed late rushing work with Najee Harris (arm/shoulder?) and Jaylen Warren (knee) nursing apparent injuries. The Steelers also saw Van Jefferson (eye) exit the game in the second quarter, which led to more Calvin Austin III and Scotty Miller.

Patterson could be needed all over the place with Harris’ arm in a sling and Warren heading for an MRI on his knee. Jonathan Ward and Aaron Shampklin are running backs on the practice squad but CPatt could absorb several reps against a vulnerable Indy front.

Emanuel Wilson (RB, GB) - 3% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 3-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-7%
Desperation Bid: 7-10%

Josh Jacobs only tallied a 14-43-0 rushing line after owning 32 carries for 151 yards in Week 2. Perhaps the volume got to him a bit, as Wilson looks sharper with a 12-50-0 line and 2-35-1 receiving. He earned most of those yards, with the score coming on a 31-yard screen.

MarShawn Lloyd will miss at least three more games on IR and Jordan Love’s return should lift all Packers. The rushing volume will draw back with Love but Wilson is averaging five yards a pop on the ground and could earn passing downs here.

Khalil Herbert (RB, CHI) - 17% rostered
Roschon Johnson (RB, CHI) - 2% rostered  

FAAB Bid: 3-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-7%
Desperation Bid: 7-10%

The Bears have failed to get going in the Caleb Williams era with a poor offensive line, but D'Andre Swift is doing nothing to help. He has a woeful 68 yards on 37 carries, which would make Rachaad White blush. Now you have to decide between short yardage and between-the-20s builds.

Khalil Herbert has eight carries for 16 yards and a short TD with two catches while Johnson was finally active in Week 3 (Travis Homer missed with a finger injury) and notched 62 total yards on 12 touches. It isn’t much, but any spark here could burst into flames come November/December. Herbert has the inside track on goal-line carries while Johnson could earn passing work and change-of-pace downs.

Tyler Badie (RB, DEN) - 0% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
Desperation Bid: 2-3%

With neither Javonte Williams (5-12-0) nor Jaleel McLaughlin (5-7-1) flashing on the ground, Badie popped with 70 yards on nine carries. Those other two aren’t going anywhere so most of you won’t want any piece of a Broncos committee but we have to discuss players coming onto the scene.

Williams and McLaughlin are barely averaging above two yards a carry but Badie has an 8.6 YPC on 10 total carries, which could earn a turn in the rotation. This won’t have a fantasy impact without an injury to one of the others but Badie should be on watch lists.

Broncos RB touches after Javonte Williams fumbled in the 2Q:

Tyler Badie 8
Javonte 3
Jaleel McLaughlin 1

Williams has gained 52 yards on 24 carries (2.1 YPC) this season.

— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) September 23, 2024

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers

Jauan Jennings (WR, SF) - 32% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 10-15%
Aggressive Bid: 15-20%
Desperation Bid: 20-30%

Kudos to those who deployed Jennings in Week 3 for his incredible 11-175-3 day where he outshined the competition. Brandon Aiyuk only had five catches for 48 yards on 10 targets while no one else topped two catches.

Jennings was the clear go-to option for Brock Purdy with no Deebo Samuel Sr. (calf) or George Kittle (hamstring) on the field. Most didn’t have San Fran needing to pass this much against the Rams but that’s football! Jennings might be needed similarly next week against the Patriots, who could smother Aiyuk with Christian Gonzalez.

Jauan Jennings really just had the best fantasy performance by any player so far this season 🤯 pic.twitter.com/HaacPAD4b0

— ESPN Fantasy Sports (@ESPNFantasy) September 23, 2024

Josh Downs (WR, IND) - 25% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 4-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%

Downs made his 2024 debut on a day when Indy didn’t need much from its receiving corps. The slot man tied for the team lead with five targets but only caught three for 22 unassuming yards.

This lower floor is inherent to an Anthony Richardson offense but we’re eyeing the volume, not the box score. Alec Pierce had one 44-yard catch on two total targets while Adonai Mitchell failed to catch his lone target on the day.

Wan'Dale Robinson (WR, NYG) - 20% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 4-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-7%
Desperation Bid: 7-10%

Speaking of slot receivers on subpar passing offenses, Robinson continues to earn targets as a low-ceiling, high-floor PPR play. He turned eight targets into seven catches for 61 yards in a 21-15 upset over the Browns. This means he’s put up the following PPR scores: 11.8, 9.8, and 13.1.

Malik Nabers is the man here but rather than hinder Robinson, he helps keep the offense moving with sustained drives. Most of you were not drafting Robinson for being a red-zone magnet but as this PPR safety blanket. He’ll be needed in Week 4 against the rival Cowboys who love to blitz Daniel Jones.

Darnell Mooney (WR, ATL) - 26% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 4-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-7%
Desperation Bid: 7-10%

Mooney followed up last week’s 3-88-1 receiving line on seven targets by bringing in all eight Week 3 targets for 66 yards against the Chiefs. His 18 targets are one behind Drake London as they’ve consistently been on the field.

Kyle Pitts’ inconsistency has been maddening but Mooney’s involvement reminds us that he’s another year removed from a serious leg injury. At just 26 years old, Mooney can stretch the field but has also gotten screen looks and intermediate routes. They’ll need him against a potent Saints team in Week 4.

Xavier Legette (WR, CAR) - 10% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 3-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%

Legette could sneak by as a crafty add thanks to only two catches for 42 yards on three looks in Week 3. His appeal comes via Adam Thielen’s late hamstring injury that could elevate Legette into a starting lineup that suddenly has life through Andy Dalton.

Adam Schefter reported that Thielen is expected to miss “some time” and recovering from a hammy injury at 34 years old versus 24 is quite different! This writer should know. Let's see if Carolina can showcase Legette's athleticism moving forward.

All-22 on Xavier Legette's 35-yard reception. On this play, he hits 20.58 MPH.

He didn't see a target in week 2, but turned around and saw 3 targets in week three in Carolina's win against the Raiders.

His first target came in the 2nd quarter and the other two in the third… pic.twitter.com/P8Nm4It1Fl

— Bruce Matson (@MetricScout) September 23, 2024

Jahan Dotson (WR, PHI) - 10% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%

Dotson has yet to enter Philly's playcalling circle of trust but if A.J. Brown isn’t ready to return from a hamstring injury and DeVonta Smith doesn’t clear concussion protocol after a bad hit then the Eagles may not have a choice. Britain Covey even got hurt in Week 3.

There’s a chance Dotson, Johnny Wilson, and Parris Campbell are the top three WRs for them in Week 4. They’ll do their best to move through Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert but volume yields opportunity. Dotson should improve from two targets on 40 routes run (courtesy of PFF) against a poor Tampa Bay secondary before the Week 5 bye.

Tutu Atwell (WR, LAR) - 2% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%

Atwell led the Rams in receptions (four) and yards (93) while tying for the lead in targets with five. This appeared unlikely after it was Tyler Johnson and Jordan Whittington primarily playing alongside Demarcus Robinson last week after Cooper Kupp went down (until garbage time).

Last season we saw Atwell lose the No. 3 role to Robinson but PFF had the two of them as clear starters on Sunday, with Atwell running only four fewer routes (24) than Robinson. Johnson and Whittington each played around half of the snaps, though the target distribution between all WRs and Colby Parkinson was flat.

The Rams are unlikely to run away with any lead so Atwell is a viable dart throw. He still possesses breakaway speed even if the fantasy floor is low.

Jalen Nailor (WR, MIN) - 11% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%

Nailor turned four touches into 34 total yards and a score as the Vikings crushed the Texans on Sunday. The 25-year-old has found paydirt in each of Minnesota’s first three games but still hasn’t cracked three catches in any game.

Playing alongside Justin Jefferson means you won’t see many targets but you won’t see additional defensive attention either. Sam Darnold is cooking in ‘24, which helps Nailor, but Jordan Addison may be ready for Week 4 at Green Bay. We’ll see if they kick Nailor into the slot when that happens, or if Brandon Powell stays there while Nailor becomes a rotation piece.

Michael Wilson (WR, ARI) - 9% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%

Wilson entered Week 3 with only three catches and four targets so expectations were low. He blew past those figures with eight catches for 64 yards as the clear No. 2 behind Marvin Harrison Jr., with Greg Dortch and Trey McBride only garnering three targets apiece.

McBride is being evaluated for a concussion, which would consolidate the target tree going into a Week 4 home matchup against Washington. We just saw the Commanders get into a firefight with Cincinnati but the defense still gave up points galore.

Calvin Austin III (WR, PIT) - 0% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
Desperation Bid: 3-4%

Players such as Austin and Tre Tucker have elite breakaway talents but you’re unlikely to get reliable volume. The good news is they seem to be more than simple gadget players getting 10 snaps per game, though Pittsburgh and Las Vegas are not prolific offenses with high ceilings.

Austin will be a fringe play against the Colts in Week 4 should Van Jefferson and Jaylen Warren be out and leave more targets up for grabs.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends

Cole Kmet (TE, CHI) - 40% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 2-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-6%

With no Keenan Allen or rushing attack to speak of, Kmet was the target on 11 of Caleb Williams’ 52 pass attempts in Week 3’s loss to the Colts. While he did well to catch 10 of them for 97 yards and a touchdown, this was as good a layout as possible for Kmet to succeed.

The bull case is Kmet has now shown he should easily outearn Gerald Everett for routes ahead of two plus matchups (LAR, CAR) and Williams should only improve as he finds his NFL footing. The bear case is Shane Waldron doesn’t get fired and continues to hamstring an offense that figures out to operate with a healthy pass-rush balance and Allen eating up targets.

Tyler Conklin (TE, NYJ) - 14% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 2-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-6%

After back-to-back horrid weeks with just one catch and two targets apiece, Conklin broke out (by 2024 TE standards) with 93 yards on five catches. The Jets have two stellar RBs while Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard have been a solid one-two punch for Aaron Rodgers while Mike Williams works back from his torn ACL.

The crowding at RB and WR can be annoying for fantasy managers, but Conklin has a clear path to snaps and routes ahead of Jeremy Ruckert for now. Would you believe that PFF charted Conklin with more routes run than Wilson, Lazard, or any other Jet in Week 3?

Week 3 TE route participation
(Pre MNF)

95% - Tyler Conklin
90% - Colby Parkinson
89% - Dallas Goedert
89% - Pat Freiermuth
84% - Kyle Pitts
84% - Dalton Schultz
83% - Travis Kelce
83% - Cade Otton
78% - Trey McBride
77% - Tommy Tremble
77% - Theo Johnson
75% - Jordan Akins
73%…

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 23, 2024

Noah Fant (TE, SEA) - 29% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
Desperation Bid: 4-5%

Fant catching six balls for 60 yards makes him a hero these days, but we have to provide context. PFF gave him 22 routes run despite just 28 snaps on 64 total plays as Pharaoh Brown split time (30 snaps, eight routes), working mostly on running plays but still eating a few passing looks.

This was also a day where Jaxon Smith-Njigba only got three targets. An optimist could say that Fant had a solid day with a half-full workload, while the pessimist would say it’s difficult to envision a full workload with Brown taking Fant off of the field so often.

**Potential injury fill-ins worth a couple of bucks:
Brock Wright (DET)
Elijah Higgins (ARI)
Brenton Strange (JAC)
Jordan Akins (CLE)
Eric Saubert (SF)

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams

Indianapolis Colts Defense (vs. PIT) - 16% rostered

FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
Desperation Bid: 2-4%

The Colts get to stay in town to face a Pittsburgh team without an elite offensive ceiling that may be without key running backs. Indy just torched the Bears for four sacks and three turnovers and could enjoy a nice month. After Pittsburgh, they’ll face Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Miami.

Tennessee Titans Defense (at MIA) - 3% rostered

FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
Desperation Bid: 2-3%

The Titans have multiple sacks in each of their first three games but have little else to show for their defensive efforts. Just one fumble recovery and an average of 22 points allowed are not jumping off of the page. But they draw a Dolphins offense scrambling without Tua Tagovailoa. Skylar Thompson was a wreck and may not be ready for Week 4, which could leave Tim Boyle or the recently-signed Tyler Huntley to step in.

Arizona Cardinals Defense (vs. WAS) - 1% rostered

FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
Desperation Bid: 2-3%

The Cardinals will look to stymie Jayden Daniels and the Commanders after they clobbered Cincinnati on Monday night. Arizona is enjoying a third straight home game while Washington must travel on a short week and could be without Austin Ekeler, who exited due to concussion protocol. The Cards have multiple sacks and a turnover in all three games thus far so see if Washington’s defense falls behind early.

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