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Matt's running back (RB) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 1 of 2024. His RB lineups advice for Week 1 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
If you have questions, we have answers. With Week 1 of the fantasy football season now upon us, it is time to make those difficult lineup decisions.
Week 1 of the NFL season is like a heavy title matchup. Nothing is too exciting, as everyone is getting a feel for one another. We are still trying to see how these offenses and defenses are going to work together and identify matchups we may be able to exploit.
Drawing from last season's events and keeping one eye focused throughout training camps, I have identified some running backs who I feel are worth starting in Week 1 and a few who should probably remain on your bench.
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Fantasy Football Start 'Em Picks for Week 1
Javonte Williams - RB, Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle allowed the sixth-most fantasy points last season to running backs on a per-game basis, yielding 23.5 per contest. That was thanks in large part to surrendering the fifth-most rushing yards (1,815) and 19 touchdowns on the ground, which only the Carolina Panthers allowed more.
What makes this play more interesting is that the Seahawks allowed 81 receptions to backs last season, and Javonte Williams hauled in 47 of 58 targets while returning from his knee injury.
Factoring in the fact that Jaleel McLaughlin also had 31 receptions and Samaje Perine's departure opens up another 56 targets, one can safely assume that Williams will be heavily involved in the passing game. Also, it bodes well for Williams that Bo Nix targeted his backs more than any other quarterback from the draft class in 2023.
Yesterday's release of Samaje Perine might not seem like much BUT
'23 #Broncos RB Targets
🏈 150 - 1st in the league'23 Broncos QB Dropbacks
🏈 604 - 29th in the leagueBo Nix' '23 RB Targets
🏈 89 - 1st in Draft ClassDoes Javonte Williams see more 3rd-down work? pic.twitter.com/e6m4tOiFPk
— Bleacher Nation Fantasy (@FantasyLifeApp) August 28, 2024
James Cook - RB, Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals
Last season, no team allowed more fantasy production to the running back position than the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona allowed backs to churn out 2,027 yards on the ground and 14 touchdowns in addition to the eight receiving touchdowns it gifted fantasy managers. The 26.83 fantasy points were more than an entire fantasy point per game than the next closest team, Washington.
Arizona did very little in the offseason to make me believe it could stop the run. Bilal Nichols and Justin Jones were added to this defense, but neither will keep offensive coordinators awake at night.
Enter James Cook. Cook finished last season with 1,122 yards on the ground while chipping in with 445 yards on 44 receptions. Once Joe Brady took over play-calling duties, Cook would go on to average 20.4 opportunities per game. With Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis elsewhere this season, Cook should have plenty of opportunities to start the 2024 season.
Gus Edwards - RB, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
I'm reading the tea leaves here. If you need a flex option, Gus Edwards is likely an option on your bench that will pay off in fantasy in Week 1.
All offseason, we have linked this Chargers offense to being run-heavy, with Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman calling the shots. If the ground and pound wasn't obvious, the plantar fasciitis that Justin Herbert is dealing with suggests we could see an added emphasis on the run game throughout the first several weeks of the 2024 season.
From a fantasy lens, the Raiders allowed 1,667 backs on the ground last season with 13 scores, adding up to 21.55 fantasy points per game. That total was the sixth most, which means that Edwards and the Chargers may be able to exploit that matchup. Well, at least they can test that new-look Raiders front after the addition of Christian Wilkins. Even with Wilkins, Edwards looks like a solid volume play that should get those valuable goal-line touches.
You know the Harbaugh brothers talk. There is an excellent reason that the Chargers didn't draft a running back until Kimani Vidal in the sixth round. Edwards will be that goal-line back once again after punching it in 13 times a season ago. J.K. Dobbins will eventually be a factor, just not this week.
Fantasy Football Sit 'Em Picks for Week 1
Brian Robinson Jr. - RB, Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
You may have heard of an interior (re)designer named Vita Vea. One of the premier interior run defenders in the game today, playing on one of the most dominant run defenses last year. Tampa allowed 1,377 rushing yards and just five rushing touchdowns to backs last season. The five rushing touchdowns were tied with the Baltimore Ravens for the fewest in the NFL.
Tevita Tuliʻakiʻono Tuipulotu Mosese Vaʻhae Fehoko Faletau Vea
aka Vita Vea 💪 pic.twitter.com/RCaf6o7WhD
— NFL (@NFL) August 24, 2024
It's not just the Buccaneers' run defense; they also limited opposing backs to the third-fewest receiving yards (435) and just two receiving scores. Add that up, and those seven total touchdowns were the fewest in the league, while the 17.44 fantasy points per game allowed was the fifth-lowest average.
With better options available facing more favorable matchups, the duo of Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler are a hard no for me.
D'Andre Swift - RB, Chicago Bears vs. Tennessee Titans
Speaking of difficult matchups, the Tennessee Titans have been one of the more difficult matchups for running backs in fantasy over the last few seasons.
In 2021, the Titans surrendered just 10.19 fantasy points per game, a number only bested by the Miami Dolphins and the Indianapolis Colts. That season, they allowed just 1,089 rushing yards to the position. Then, in 2022, they finished as the second-stingiest unit in the league, allowing just 907 yards and six touchdowns, equalling 13.58 fantasy points.
Last season, this Titans defensive unit ranked seventh in fantasy points allowed, yielding 17.85 fantasy points per contest. Now, that is somewhat misleading, considering the Titans were dealing with a plethora of injuries up front last season, so expect them to return closer to that 2022 form.
Not only is this Tennessee run defense more than enough of a reason to fade D'Andre Swift here in Week 1, but their pass defense last season was among the 10 worst, allowing more than 33 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. Chicago has some new toys on offense, including Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze, that it may want to test out along with DJ Moore.
Najee Harris - RB, Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons
One of the more underrated defenses in the NFL last season belonged to the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta was the eighth-most challenging matchup for opposing receivers, allowing just 27.78 fantasy points per game. The Falcons were also the eighth-stingiest defense against the running back position, allowing less than 18 fantasy points per game, thanks to a defense that, along with the Buccaneers and Ravens, allowed a league-low five rushing scores.
Considering where you drafted Harris, you will likely have better options available this week. Harris is a great option this season. This is the best he has looked in a while. This is the best offensive line he's played with since coming into the league.
I know Arthur Smith is the offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh, so I feel better pumping the breaks after watching how he deployed Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allegeier in tandem last season in Atlanta.
We are all expecting Harris and Jaylen Warren to split the touches, but with Arthur Smith calling the shots, Cordarrelle Patterson might make the biggest fantasy impact. Arthur Smith may be the reason I have trust issues.
The "new look" Pittsburgh Steelers
OC: Matt Canada --> Arthur Smith
QB: Kenny Pickett --> Russell Wilson / Justin Fields
RB: Najee Harris & Jaylen Warren
WR1: George Pickens
WR2: Diontae Johnson --> Calvin Austin
WR3: Allen Robinson --> Van Jefferson
TE: Pat Freiermuth pic.twitter.com/ZZdALFPrHe— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) August 28, 2024
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