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Andrew Ball analyzes fantasy football draft sleepers that are boom-or-bust picks to target in 2024 drafts. These NFL players have risks but offer huge upside.
Take a gamble or play it safe.
We don't play fantasy football to get fifth or sixth. We want the championship. To win, we have to take swings.
That means drafting high-upside players who carry risks. They can break out and be a core part of your fantasy roster. Or they don't work out and you'll be scouring the waiver wire for a replacement. It's worth the shot. Here are five boom-or-bust players fantasy managers should target this year.
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Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
In four games, Anthony Richardson had the highest of highs and lowest of lows -- a QB4 finish in his debut and a QB2 result in Week 3. In Week 2, we saw two rushing touchdowns before he was removed from the game with an injury in the second quarter. It was a similar story in Week 4, sans the touchdowns. Then his season was over.
The questions we had about Richardson entering the NFL haven't been answered. We knew he was an all-world athlete and a rushing threat, but his passing abilities remain an unknown. He didn't complete more than 60% of his passes in three seasons at Florida nor his four games for the Colts.
The Bengals were recently mocking the Colts quarterback for inaccurate passes and relying too much on his legs during a joint practice. He may not be a great passer but quarterback rushing is the fantasy football cheat code. That's why he's worth targeting in the middle rounds of drafts.
Not sure if people were ready for the Anthony Richardson experience but that’s what’s here.
Some superhuman flashes. Some raw mistakes. Loads of learning.
Week 1 against the Texans will be his 18th start since Eastside High School. We’re watching a young QB find himself here.
— Nate Atkins (@NateAtkins_) August 21, 2024
The post above highlights more of the problems: inexperience and injuries. He's barely started an entire season since high school. His physical style leads to bumps and bruises. There's a history of knee and shoulder issues, plus two known concussions.
It's easy to see the upside. If he stays healthy, he will be a top-12 quarterback. That's a big ask.
De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
De'Von Achane is one of the most polarizing players in fantasy football this year. Some analysts see the 17.3 PPR points per game (fifth among RBs) and salivate over the potential. Others see the unsustainable efficiency (7.7 yards per carry), injury concerns (six inactive games), and ADP cost (26th overall) and avoid it.
Fantasy managers only relished in Achane's performances on four occasions (five if you play into Week 18). That's excluding the 50-point bonanza in Week 3. His start percentage was very low, considering he had played just 10 percent of Miami's snaps the week prior. He was great again in Weeks 4 and 5 and then we didn't get a start-worthy day until Week 13. He ran for 100 yards and scored in Week 17.
Achane put some mass on his 5-foot-9 frame to avoid the injury bug. He's also expected to see an uptick in volume, should his body allow for it. Achane averaged a hair under 12 touches per game in 2023.
Even one or two more opportunities are huge for a runner who can score from anywhere on the field. The former Texas A&M Aggie is more than just fast. He averaged three yards after contact per carry.
Raheem Mostert, the returning starter in Miami, is 32 years old. Fourth-round rookie Jaylen Wright, a speedster himself, projects to be third on the depth chart. The only other change on the Miami offense is the offensive line, which, on paper, got worse during the offseason.
Achane can be a top-5 RB just as easily as he can finish outside the top 20. It's the gamble fantasy managers weigh when selecting him as the RB11.
Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
This has nothing to do with talent and everything to do with the situation.
Daniel Jones 1st throw in a game since the torn ACL pic.twitter.com/UHdyGIw2U0
— Talkin’ Giants (@TalkinGiants) August 17, 2024
Frustration will be the theme of the season for both Malik Nabers and his fantasy managers. From the near interception to two actual interceptions to beautiful toe-tapping catches for Nabers, we witnessed the highs and lows of the Jones-Nabers experiment. It's a microcosm of what to expect in the regular season.
The sixth overall pick may be the most talented rookie wide receiver in this class (debating him and Marvin Harrison Jr. should be fun for the next decade) and fills a dire need for the Giants. One of the reasons the New York offense struggled so badly in 2023 was the lack of reliable options in the receiving game.
Tight end Darren Waller was acquired to be the alpha. He missed five games, struggled in limited action, and retired in the offseason. Darius Slayton led the team in receiving yards (770) and touchdowns (four) while Wan'Dale Robinson caught the most passes (60). Waller barely squeaked past a 20% target share, the only Giant to do so.
Nabers will command a target share north of 25%, as he has done so far this preseason. Whether those passes land in the vicinity of the promising wideout will determine whether he booms or busts every week.
Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions offense, unchanged from a season ago, revolves around a dedicated rushing attack and a concentrated passing game. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are the best one-two punch in football. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta combined for over a 50% target share. Where does that leave Jameson Williams?
The departure of Josh Reynolds opens some more looks for Williams. The former first-round pick didn't play 70% of the snaps until the postseason and finished the year with a 53.6% snap share. Both numbers will rise in 2024 with Williams firmly entrenched as the WR2.
There's little competition behind Williams as well. Kalif Raymond is the WR3 but coach Dan Campbell admitted he doesn't want to use him often because of his return skills. It's by necessity because nobody else has stepped up.
Williams will have a career year because of the boosted opportunities but he'll need to prove that he's more than just a deep-ball threat. Eleven of his 41 professional targets were deep passes and he boasted a 15.8 average depth of target (fifth among WRs). All three of his career receiving touchdowns came from over 30 yards out. So far in camp, he's showing he's more than a one-trick pony.
Jameson Williams beating guys like this and finishing has been such a routine thing at Lions camp … to the point @DetroitOnLion can anticipate and not flinch when Jamo spikes the ball off the equipment shed at the end of this video here. pic.twitter.com/zI3Al8Vzzj
— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) August 21, 2024
The hope is that he breaks away from his boom/bust label and becomes an asset outside of Best Ball leagues. With a 10th-round ADP, it's worth the gamble.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Name one good thing Kyle Pitts has done since his rookie season. You can't. He's endured two consecutive bust seasons after booming in his debut campaign. He combined for fewer yards in Years 2 and 3 (1,023) than in Year 1 (1,026).
There's real doubt on whether Pitts is the generational tight-end talent that prompted Atlanta to spend the fourth overall pick on him in the 2021 NFL Draft. A tight-end-leading aDOT (11.4 yards) and unrealized air yards (479) combined with a 57.5% catch rate proved to be components of his downfall. Inaccurate quarterbacks like Taylor Heinicke and Desmond Ridder will do that.
Pitts is worth taking the chance on because of Kirk Cousins and a new offense. He's the only competent quarterback Pitts has played with since late-career Matt Ryan. Plus, almost 27% of Cousins' pass attempts last season went to tight ends.
It's a position he's always favored. Remember Jordan Reed's TE3 season back in 2015? Tyler Conklin's best fantasy season in 2021? Cousins is responsible.
Pitts is reportedly fully healthy following his torn MCL in 2022. He didn't miss any time last season but has discussed how his knee bothered him throughout the year. He was limited to a 65.1% snap share.
Fantasy managers have the scars from being burnt by Pitts and it makes sense if they don't want to go through it again. He'll either return to rookie form or prove, once and for all, that he's not the player we thought he was.
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