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Baker Mayfield, Matthew Stafford, and Joe Burrow are three former first-overall pick QBs who are all looking to have big years in 2024. Aidin Ebrahimi makes some predictions for how each of their seasons will play out.
2023 was a wild year for quarterbacks. We saw it all last year: outcasts rising to become heroes, aging gunslingers having one last dance at the top, and rising superstars missing significant time due to injury.
I am, of course, referring to Baker Mayfield, Matthew Stafford, and Joe Burrow, respectively. These three former first-overall-pick QBs all want to have a fantastic year in 2024 and lead their team to major success.
Without further ado, let's look at my predictions for these three franchise QBs, and how their 2024 seasons will play out. Reminder: These are just my predictions!
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Baker Mayfield - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mayfield was in the much-dreaded "Last Chance Saloon" heading into 2023. He had a great rookie year with the Browns and became one of the NFL's most popular rising stars. He was "The Savior," and with this praise came massive expectations.
Expectations that he failed to live up to in 2019. But then he bounced back with an awesome 2020 season, leading the Browns back to the playoffs for the first time since 2002 and even helping them win a playoff game for the first time since 1994.
He began the 2021 season with the best completion percentage in the league but then suffered shoulder and knee injuries that affected him both physically and mentally.
Baking in Jacksonville 👨🍳 pic.twitter.com/zjHClmGmwi
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) August 15, 2024
After his beef with Odell Beckham Jr. and his father, the Browns claimed Mayfield was "immature" and went after Deshaun Watson, which is ironic for an organization that wanted "maturity." Mayfield was shipped to the Panthers, and his nightmare continued in Carolina.
He was released after just six starts but proved he still had a lot left in the tank when he ended the season with the Rams. The Buccaneers, fresh off of losing Tom Brady, took a chance on him, and it paid off big.
Mayfield had the best year of his career as he finished as the overall fantasy QB10, made the Pro Bowl, and led the Bucs to the NFC South title and a playoff win. He was rewarded with a massive three-year, $100 million contract.
Mayfield wasn't the only Buc who was re-signed in the offseason. Jason Licht brought back his main weapon Mike Evans, and Antoine Winfield Jr. and Tristan Wirfs. They've made smart choices in the draft, such as picking Graham Barton and Jalen McMillan.
He also still has Chris Godwin, Trey Palmer, and Rachaad White and is reunited with OC Liam Coen, who he worked with in Los Angeles. Mentally, he's doing better than ever now.
He has no off-field distractions, is healthy, and plays for a city that appreciates his talent. The Falcons might be the favorites to win the NFC South this year, but Mayfield can still lead the Bucs to the playoffs and put up big numbers along the way.
Doubters will point out that his QB10 finish last year was misleading due to many elite QBs missing the year due to injuries, but injuries happen every year, and the 284.1 fantasy points that he put up last year would've been enough to put him in the top 12 in 2022 and 2021.
If Mayfield keeps up his consistency, which he certainly can, he can be a solid fantasy QB with a high upside.
Final Verdict: BOOM
Matthew Stafford - Los Angeles Rams
After leading the Rams to their second-ever Super Bowl win in 2021, Matthew Stafford was on top of the world. He had the second-best fantasy season of his career, finishing as the overall QB5.
The Rams expected to contend for the Super Bowl once again in 2022 but had a season from hell. Stafford, Aaron Donald, and Cooper Kupp all suffered significant injuries, and the Rams had one of the worst title defenses in NFL history.
They started the 2023 season with a 3-6 record, just like 2022, and all hope looked to be lost. That was until Stafford had an insane run, throwing for 1895 yards, 16 touchdowns, and just four interceptions with a sparkling 104.5 passer rating.
They finished the season with a 7-1 record and reached the playoffs, but Stafford failed to beat his former team, the Lions. Now, Stafford is looking to build upon his impressive season and lead the team to the playoffs once again, but despite having Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Kyren Williams, the odds of that happening are not in his favor.
For a start, Stafford missed a couple of games and finished as the overall QB15. He provides no rushing upside, running for just 117 yards and one touchdown since becoming a Ram. He obviously has two world-class receivers at his disposal, but his age is a huge concern.
He is 36 now, and there have only been 12 QBs in NFL history who have had 25 touchdown seasons at the age of 36. Here is a list of every single one and how they fared in fantasy football:
Looking at this list (especially the QBs after 2010), it's apparent that Stafford will have to put up somewhere around 4400 yards and a 2.8 touchdown/interception ratio to be a top-10 fantasy QB.
He can easily top 4400 yards with Kupp and Nacua, but the touchdown/interception ratio is something that he has to improve. He has reached that ratio just once in a full season (2017), so the only other option for him would be to throw something close to 40 touchdowns.
And once again, his age is what lets him down. Looking at the list again, only four QBs have ever thrown for more than 30 touchdowns during their age-36 season since 2010.
Stafford will need to be at his best to be a viable fantasy QB1, and I don't think his recent injury history (he's currently dealing with a hamstring issue) and age will let him be at his best week in and week out.
Final Verdict: BUST
Joe Burrow - Cincinnati Bengals
For the second time in his career, Joe Burrow is looking to return from a season-ending injury. The first time that he did that, he went on to throw for 4611 yards and 34 touchdowns (fantasy QB8) while also leading the Bengals—who had the third-lowest odds to win the Super Bowl in the preseason—to the Super Bowl, where they narrowly lost to Stafford's Rams.
Burrow is looking to have a similar comeback in 2024 after his 2023 season ended prematurely. He was injured during training camp last year but made a fast (and suspicious) recovery to start for the Bengals on Week 1.
He looked nowhere near his usual self in the first four games of the year, putting up Kenny Pickett-type numbers which caused many to question if he had actually recovered and if the Bengals were forcing him to go out there.
Joe Burrow. 🥶 pic.twitter.com/qgL7cJ2tMG
— NFL Brasil (@NFLBrasil) August 17, 2024
Nevertheless, he persevered, and his form improved. From Week 5 to Week 10, he threw for 1480 yards and 12 touchdowns to four picks and had a great 107.0 passer rating. He finished with 22.2 average fantasy points, the fourth-highest among all QBs during that span.
Burrow got hurt once again in Week 11, which ended his season. Burrow looks healthy now, and the Bengals have made some pretty good additions to help him out.
Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, Irv Smith, and Jonah Williams left the team, while Zack Moss, Jermaine Burton, Mike Gesicki, and Amarius Mims will replace them.
The Bengals are also trying to keep Ja'Marr Chase and are trying to reach a deal with him. Burrow has a telepathic relationship with Chase on the field and as long as they're together and healthy, they'll both have awesome fantasy seasons.
In his last fully healthy season (2022), Burrow finished as the overall QB4. Despite his injury history, his upside is too good to pass up on. And if things go his way, he has a shot at finishing the year as 2024's overall QB1.
Final Verdict: BOOM
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