Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Team Preview - QB, RB, WR, TE Outlooks

July 5, 2024

Rob's 2024 fantasy football team preview for the Atlanta Falcons. Read about fantasy football values, sleepers, rookies and starters at QB, RB, WR and TE.

Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Atlanta Falcons as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions—quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end—and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Through this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.

Is this finally the year Drake London and Kyle Pitts meet preseason expectations? Atlanta's offseason moves, including hiring Raheem Morris as head coach and Zac Robinson as offensive coordinator, raised the bar. The free agent signing of Kirk Cousins took it to another level, however. Fantasy managers are fully buying into what looks to be the best environment for their young careers. The expectations for Bijan Robinson are also sky-high. For fantasy managers, however, such high degrees of hype can often lead to inflated prices, so should we still buy these players at their current costs?

There are so many places fantasy managers can find ADP rankings, all of which differ to some extent. Be sure to bookmark our fantasy football ADP page for the latest industry consensus ADPs. If you want to invest in your fantasy football leagues, consider subscribing to our Premium account. Our Premium tools can help you dominate your fantasy leagues. If you'd like to purchase our Premium tools at RotoBaller, use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount.

Fantasy Football Team Previews

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins: QB18, ADP 110

The Falcons organization hired Raheem Morris, the former defensive coordinator of the Rams, as their head coach. Morris brought Zac Robinson, the Rams' passing game coordinator since 2022. Robinson has been with the organization under Sean McVay since 2019. In the 23 full games Matthew Stafford has played with the Rams since 2022, he’s averaged just over 35 pass attempts per game (35.043, to be exact), which equals 595 over 17 games. The Falcons attempted 415 passes in 2022 and 530 this past season.

Now enter Kirk Cousins. Over Cousins’ six years with the Vikings, he’s averaged just over 35 pass attempts per game, 35.011, to be exact. It’s wild just how similar Cousins and Stafford’s per-game-pass-attempt averages are. Cousins shouldn’t be looking at any substantial change in his passing volume from where it was in Minnesota to Atlanta, and that’s a good thing.

While he doesn’t have the world’s best receiver to throw to anymore in Justin Jefferson, the trio of Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Darnell Mooney is certainly very good. London and Pitts are both former top-10 picks who are talented and have untapped potential. Mooney had 1,055 yards in just his second season. The pass-catchers in Atlanta will not hold Cousins back.

Cousins does not get the respect he deserves in the NFL or fantasy football, but we’ll be sticking to the latter here. Last year, he was the QB6 with a 19.3 PPG. He finished tied for QB12 in 2022 (18.3 PPG), QB12 in 2021 (19.0), QB12 in 2020 (19.0), QB17 in 2019 (16.7 PPG), QB14 in 2018 (18.1 PPG), QB8 in 2017 (18.0 PPG), QB6 in 2016 (19.3 PPG), and tied for QB12 in 2015 (18.3 PPG). In nine seasons as a starter, he’s finished as the QB12 or better in seven seasons. He has three finishes inside the top-10. More recently, he’s finished as a top-12 quarterback in four consecutive seasons.

There are some understandable hesitations with Cousins this season, most notably the torn Achilles injury he suffered midseason last year, but also the new team, new coach, and no more Justin Jefferson. However, all reports indicate Cousins is healthy and ready to go. While he’s on a new team, with a new coach and new pass-catchers, it’s another tremendous environment for him.

The Falcons have some of the very best offensive weaponry in the NFL. Bijan Robinson, London, Pitts, and Mooney make up a quartet only a few teams can rival. Not only that, but PFF’s final 2023 offensive line rankings had the Falcons at fourth and returned all five starters. Cousins should have excellent protection, coaching, volume, and pass-catchers. Considering Cousins has almost always played excellently, I expect him to be excellent again this season. Excellent, right? I’m buying Cousins at QB18.

Verdict: Buy Kirk Cousins

Running Back

Bijan Robinson: RB3, ADP 7
Tyler Allgeier: RB53, ADP 160

Many will remember Robinson’s rookie season as disappointing; on some levels, that’s true. He finished as the RB20 with a 12.2 half-PPR PPG average. However, we had Migraine Gate, where he played just 11 snaps and touched the ball once. If we eliminate that game from the sample, his PPG average jumps to 12.9, and he has an RB17 finish. It still feels lackluster, considering he touched the ball 272 times and finished with 1,463 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns, which included 86 targets and 58 receptions. There was still a lot of meat left on those bones, and it all came inside the red zone.

Atlanta had 66 non-quarterback red zone carries last season, 29 non-quarterback carries inside the 10-yard line, and nine non-quarterback carries inside the 5-yard line. Robinson had 34.8%, 41.3%, and 22.2% of those carries, respectively. Cordarrelle Patterson had the same number of carries inside the 5-yard line as Robinson had last season. This is part of former head coach Arthur Smith’s utilization of Robinson, a criminal. We can’t complain about a rookie running back touching the ball 272 times and finishing with almost 1,500 scrimmage yards, but we can complain about the conscious decision to take him off the field near the end zone.

Bijan Robinson had just 3 goal line carries in all of 2023. That equated to 0.2 per game - the second-fewest among starting RBs

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) June 13, 2024

Based on offseason reports, fantasy managers will no longer have to worry about that. Head coach Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson are coming over from Los Angeles under Sean McVay, who has famously used a one-back system for years. Not only will Robinson receive a much larger piece of the pie near the end zone, but those trips are likely to occur much more frequently.

In 2022, Kirk Cousins’ last full season with Minnesota, the Vikings had 64 red zone trips. In 2021 they had 53; in 2020, they had 59 in a 16-game season, which extrapolates to 63 over 17 games. From 2020-2022, with Cousins under center for the whole season, Minnesota has averaged 3.52 red zone trips per game, or roughly 60 over 17 games. Atlanta had 47 last year. Of Minnesota’s 176 red zone trips during that three-year span, they scored 115 touchdowns, a success rate of 65.3%. Atlanta scored on 46.8% last year.

Robinson was very effective last season, averaging 5.4 yards per touch, ninth among running backs. He also generated 3.83 yards created per touch, ranking 12th. Robinson was really good last year, but with the increased red zone opportunities, not only from a team percentage standpoint but also an overall standpoint, Robinson can go from really good to league-winning.

#Falcons coach Raheem Morris on his plan for RB Bijan Robinson: "Get the ball to Bijan as much as you can in as many ideal situations as you possibly can."

— Marc Raimondi (@marcraimondi) June 11, 2024

Not only that, and this shouldn’t be surprising, but Drake London and Kyle Pitts weren’t the only ones negatively affected by the bad quarterback play. Robinson caught just 67.4% of his passes. However, consider this: 21 running backs had 50 or more targets last season. The average completion percentage for their 1,433 combined targets was 78%. Had Robinson caught 78% of his targets, he’d have finished with 11 more receptions and roughly 92 more receiving yards. That amounts to almost a full extra PPG. Robinson’s price tag is baking all of this in, but there’s no reason to doubt Robinson going into 2024. He has “RB1” in his range of outcomes and could be a league-wrecker.

Allgeier had 226 touches, 1,174 scrimmage yards, and four total touchdowns as a rookie in 2022. He followed that up by finishing with 204 touches, 876 scrimmage yards, and five touchdowns this past season. He played 51% of the snaps as a rookie and 32% this past season. Having 2,050 total scrimmage yards after two seasons in the NFL as a former fifth-round pick is pretty impressive. However, with the coaching change and Robinson’s pedigree, fantasy managers expect Allgeier’s role to decline even further, and with it, his ADP follows.

At RB53, Allgeier can be drafted in the 14th round. Considering his immense handcuff potential, it makes Allgeier an easy buy. With backup running backs, sometimes we don’t exactly know how the distribution of touches would go if the starter went down. Other times, we don’t know if the backup is any good. With Allgeier, we know the answer to both questions. Allgeier would walk into Robinson’s role and handle most of the touches. Allgeier is also good. He may not be Robinson-good, but he wouldn’t need to be. If Robinson were to miss time, Allgeier would become an immediate top-20 weekly running back.

*Cracks knuckles* rookie year numbers:

Bijan Robinson:
214-969-4 rushing
4.5 yards per carry
0.24 missed tackles forced/carry
3.1 yards after contact/carry

Tyler Allgeier:
210-1035-3 rushing
4.9 yards per carry
0.24 missed tackles forced/carry
3.6 yards after contact/carry

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 18, 2024

Being able to draft that kind of contingent value in round 14 should appeal to any fantasy manager, especially those we have already drafted. Allgeier is one of the most clearly defined handcuffs in the NFL. He would seamlessly step into the starter’s role and has a history of being effective. Allgeier is a great value this season.

Verdict: Fair Price on Bijan Robinson and Buy Tyler Allgeier

Wide Receivers

Drake London: WR12, ADP 18
Darnell Mooney: WR68, ADP 159
Rondale Moore: WR91, ADP 234

Any conversation about Drake London needs to start with the quarterback, so let's get this out of the way right now. Desmond Ridder was awful in 2023, and Marcus Mariota was worse. Both were the worst quarterbacks in the NFL when they started under center for Atlanta. The stats below help paint a picture of just how drastic of an improvement Cousins will be compared to the former two quarterbacks London has been cursed with.

Despite the abysmal quarterback play, London has put plenty on tape and spreadsheets to indicate he can play at a high level. As a rookie in 2022, he had a 29.4% target share (fourth among receivers) and a 32.4% target rate (second-highest).

Mariota was one of the most inaccurate starting quarterbacks in the last five years, but London still managed to finish with a 2.40-yard-per-route run average (11th-highest) and 2.09 yards per team pass attempt (16th). Some of those numbers slightly dipped this past season. His target share "fell" to 23.3%, but that's still an excellent number. Despite the poor quarterback play, he averaged 1.91 yards per route run. The film study tells us that the number dip wasn't his fault.

The above image comes from London's 2023 Reception Perception profile, which you can find here. London's film review aligns with his elite numbers from his rookie season and his draft capital. London can play, but he just needs some help. With the improvement at quarterback, as well as the improved coaching staff and offensive scheme, London is likely on the verge of his best professional season. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception had this to say about him from his 2023 profile,

"London is such a great fit as an X-receiver because despite being a massive player, he can separate at an extremely high level. With a 71.8% success rate vs. man coverage last season, London came right within range of his rookie season results. He noticeably improved his success rate vs. press from a strong 72.5% in 2022 to 76.5% in 2023. Once you see a wideout start creeping north of 76% success rate vs. press, you can start getting ready to move them in line with some enviable company. Everything about Drake London’s game says he’s ready for that leap.  London is also a fantastic zone-beater with 81.6% and 81.7% success rates in his first two seasons. That consistency is enviable enough as it is, especially with the context of his proficiency at winning in man coverage. I’ve always been a big fan of how he works leverage in zone coverage and processes defenses to find holes in the intermediate area dating back to USC. Drake London has always been a fantastic separator. Don’t for one second profile him as a contested-target-only player because of his size. Of course, he’s still an excellent tight coverage target but he just happens to be quite good at playing the position before the ball arrives, too. London isn’t a dominant route runner and separator on downfield routes, but he’s darn near dominant on base NFL patterns. His success rates on slants, curls, digs and outs are nothing short of fantastic. You can build a long productive NFL career as a No. 1 wideout thumping defenses over the head getting open on those routes. I’m betting heavily on London as one of those types."

The story on Mooney isn't all that different. Sure, he's not the elite prospect or talent that London is, but he's been long held back by poor quarterback play. As a rookie, catching passes from Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky, Mooney managed to have a productive first year in the NFL. He had 98 targets, 61 receptions, 631 yards, and four touchdowns.

His sophomore season is when everything came together. With a combination of Andy Dalton and Justin Fields under center, Mooney racked up 140 targets, 81 receptions, 1055 yards, and five touchdowns. He had a 26.7% target share, a 27.3% target rate, and a 35.3% air yard share. All three were top 20. He also averaged 2.06 yards per route run and 1.95 yards per team pass attempt. He finished as the WR35 with a 10.0 half-PPR PPG average.

He's struggled with injuries over the past two seasons. In 2022, he missed five games and played under 35% of the snaps in a sixth. During those first 11 games of the season, Justin Fields averaged just 20.7 pass attempts per game. In context, even Marcus Mariota was throwing the ball more. Mooney's 25.2% target share was meaningless and amounted to just 58 targets (37th among receivers).

This is despite his 25.2% target share ranking 20th and his 27.2% target rate ranking 15th. This past season, Mooney missed two games, was limited in a third, and was delegated to third on the target hierarchy behind D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet. That's where he'll be in Atlanta, too, but his quarterback won't be Justin Fields, and his team won't be throwing it just 30.1 times per game.

Mooney has shown the ability to play, and Cousins has shown the ability to support three fantasy-relevant pass-catchers. His WR68 price is cheap for someone with a 1,000-yard season under his belt and two seasons with a target share north of 25%. He'll finish as the No. 3 target-earner on the team, but in what is likely to be a top-10 offense, Mooney offers plenty of big play potential for a very cheap cost. His 14th-round ADP is plenty enticing considering his talent profile and the role he'd inherit if Pitts or London were to miss time.

Moore is nothing more than a gadget player. He does not win big-boy routes. He does not earn targets at a high rate. He's struggled to make a name for himself in Arizona, even with the injuries to DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown the past few seasons. His price, unlike Mooney's, is cheap for a reason. Moore has never shown the ability to play and win consistently. He'll be well behind London, Pitts, Mooney, and Robinson for targets. He's not even worth a dart throw.

Verdict: Fair Price on Drake London, Buy Darnell Mooney, Sell Rondale Moore

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts: TE6, ADP 61

Fantasy managers can effectively forget everything that’s happened to Kyle Pitts over the past two seasons. Between the ineffective coaching staff and the even worse quarterback play, Pitts has had to endure a situation that would have rendered even the best tight ends irrelevant. If you've forgotten how bad it was, please scroll back up to the table under the receivers to see the difference between Cousins, Ridder, and Mariota.

The new coaching staff has put a point of emphasis on getting Pitts more involved. His 71.9% snap share in 2022 ranked just 19th among tight ends. His 76.1% route participation rate was 13th. For someone like Pitts, those numbers do not make any sense. His snap share decreased in 2023, down to 65.1%, but thankfully his route participation increased to 87.2%. Given the new coaching changes, we expect to see Pitts more involved in the offense. He should see a big increase in his snap share and route participation.

Not only that, but Pitts is fully healthy. He missed the end of the 2022 season due to a torn MCL. That injury impacted him throughout 2023. Oftentimes, we talk about how a torn ACL can be a two-year injury for a running back. The same is true for other positions, as well. Pitts is now two years removed from that injury and should look more like his 2021 self.

Just in time, too, because the acquisition of Cousins and hiring Raheem Morris and Zac Robinson has Pitts' potential skyrocketing. Some fantasy managers have tricked themselves into believing that Pitts hasn't been good since entering the NFL; the table below should dispel that notion.

It’s not hard to see the fantasy appeal of a good quarterback when looking at his utilization and advanced statistics from the last three years. Despite missing time in 2022 and 2023, Pitts has finished first in unrealized air yards in both seasons. It’s not a stretch to think that many unrealized air yards become real yards with good quarterback play.

In 2021 and 2022, he posted top-seven marks in yards per route run, yards per reception, and yards per team pass attempt. He also posted top-10 numbers in target share and rate during those first two seasons. The last row you should focus on is his total touchdowns. He has just six touchdowns in three seasons on 258 targets. That’s an abysmal 2.3% touchdown rate. That number has the potential to double itself this year. Fantasy managers should be buying Pitts.

Verdict: Buy Kyle Pitts

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