Pitchers Advanced Metrics Leaders for CSW% Statcast Studs and Duds (Week 13)

June 18, 2024

Connelly Doan examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, and whose CSW% could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 13.

Welcome to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series for Week 13 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season! Today we'll be taking a look at names like Sonny Gray, Michael King, Lance Lynn and Andrew Abbott. Each week, I will select one stat, choose a few pitchers with strong metrics and poor metrics, and analyze them to determine how their future performance may change.

I have written about several strikeout and strike-generating metrics this season. Strikeouts play an important part in both roto and points fantasy leagues, so I have analyzed them from various angles. One broader and newer metric I have yet to look at is called + swinging strike rate (CSW%). CSW% is as it sounds; it is the percentage of pitches thrown that are called strikes or result in swinging strikes.

Fantasy managers should be taking stock of their rotations as the first half of the fantasy season wraps up. Identifying pitchers who have generated strikes can be a helpful exercise in assessing how solid their rotations are. Without further ado, let's analyze some CSW% Studs and Duds!

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CSW% Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 16, 2024.

Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals

8-4, 3.01 ERA, 33.0% Strikeout Rate, 31.5% CSW%

Sonny Gray has served as a higher-end fantasy option throughout his career and has continued to do so with the Cardinals. The 34-year-old has an 8-4 record with a 3.01 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a career-high 33.0% strikeout rate in 12 starts and 68 2/3 innings pitched. His 31.5% CSW% is much higher than his career 28.6% mark and is one of the highest in baseball. How has he generated so many more strikes?

The first point of investigation is his swinging-strike rate. Gray has managed a career-high 12.5% swinging-strike rate, which is a good deal higher than his 10.3% career average. His change in pitch mix could be driving this. Gray introduced a cutter to his repertoire last season and has integrated it even more in exchange for his four-seam fastball. His four-seamer has yielded a 6.5% swinging-strike rate but his cutter has been over twice that with an impressive 15.2% swinging-strike rate.

good morning to everyone but ESPECIALLY Sonny Gray 😤☀️ pic.twitter.com/8WRM2H3x9V

— Cardinals Talk (@theredbird_way) June 13, 2024

He has also focused on throwing the ball in the strike zone more. He has managed a career-high 53.4% zone rate, which has helped his called-strike rate jump from 16.6% last season to 18.9%. This hasn't benefitted his walk rate, but his 7.2% mark is still very acceptable.

Fantasy managers have seen various iterations of Gray throughout his career and his strikeout stuff is currently playing up more than it ever has. He has swapped some four-seam usage for a cutter, which has helped him miss more bats. Additionally, he has thrown the ball in the strike zone more, resulting in more called strikes. All signs are pointing to a career fantasy season for Gray if his current performance persists.

Michael King, San Diego Padres

5-4, 3.58 ERA, 27.1% Strikeout Rate, 30.7% CSW%

Michael King had a rough start to the season but has righted the ship with his new team, resulting in a 5-4 record with a 3.58 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 27.1% strikeout rate in 15 appearances (14 starts) and 83 IP. His 30.7% CSW% is even more encouraging than his peripherals. Should fantasy managers buy his recent performance or should they be worried about how he started the season?

King seems to have settled on his sinker as his primary fastball after a rough March and April and has faded his four-seamer for his sweeper/slider and changeup. His sinker has about half the swinging-strike rate of his four-seamer, but his sweeper/slider and changeup are his best swing-and-miss pitches with 12.5% and 20.3% swinging-strike rates. He has thrown his sinker in the strike zone slightly more than his four-seamer and has gotten better results overall.

Michael King, Filthy Back-to-Back Sweepers. 😷 pic.twitter.com/f5XOcCjx3R

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 12, 2024

King has also experienced natural regression to his career averages. His 13.0% walk rate in March and April was much higher than his 8.4% career mark, but he has seen a drop to 6.9% in May and June. Additionally, King allowed uncharacteristically hard contact at the beginning of the season. He experienced an 88.5-MPH average exit velocity and a 42.6% hard-hit rate to start the season but has dropped those marks to 83.6 MPH and 21.0% in May and June.

King doesn't have a huge track record as a starter, but he has been an effective, high-strikeout pitcher throughout his career. His slow start may have had to do with joining a new team and having an unorthodox start to the season with the Korea series. His underlying numbers look as expected over the last two months, leading me to believe that he should continue to be a consistent fantasy pitcher.

The only caveat is a potential innings limit. The 29-year-old pitched a career-high 104 2/3 innings last season and is already at 83 IP. Concerned fantasy managers may consider attempting to sell King because of this, but his performance should not be in question.

CSW% Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 16, 2024.

Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals

2-3, 3.75 ERA, 22.0% Strikeout Rate, 24.0% CSW%

Lance Lynn had a surprisingly awful 2023 season, but he has returned to the Cardinals and has gotten things turned around in 2024. The 37-year-old veteran has gone 2-3 with a 3.75 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 22.0% strikeout rate in 14 starts and 69 2/3 IP. One metric that has actually gotten worse is his 24.0% CSW%, which is one of the lowest among qualified pitchers. Can Lynn continue his return to being a serviceable fantasy pitcher?

Lynn's pitching approach seems to explain some of his trends over the last few seasons. He has always relied heavily on fastballs, but he has steadily lost velocity on his four-seamer and has increasingly relied on his cutter and sinker, which are not as effective swing-and-miss pitches. He has also thrown his pitches in the zone less while getting fewer chases, resulting in an increased 9.7% walk rate.

He has become more of a pitch-to-contact starter. His 78.4% contact rate is his highest mark since 2018. He has done an above-average job limiting hard contact, but his increased contact has contributed to his 1.39 WHIP, which leaves something to be desired.

Lynn is having a nice bounce-back season, although he is not as strong of a fantasy contributor as he once was. He has traded strikeouts for contact while also allowing more walks. He hasn't allowed particularly hard contact but has dealt with a lot of traffic on the basepaths. This has led to some short starts, and he has not made it five innings in each of his last three starts.

Overall, Lynn can still provide back-of-the-rotation fantasy value, but he will likely be the most effective as a streamer in points leagues. His high WHIP, lower strikeouts, and erratic starts do not benefit fantasy managers in roto leagues, but can still result in fantasy points.

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

5-6, 3.42 ERA, 18.3% Strikeout Rate, 24.3% CSW%

Andrew Abbott has improved upon his rookie peripherals to this point, going 5-6 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 14 starts and 79 IP. The 25-year-old's 18.3% strikeout rate is much lower than his 2023 mark of 26.1%, which has partly contributed to a low 24.3% CSW%. Can fantasy managers trust that Abbott can continue to provide fantasy value without getting high strikeout numbers?

Abbott relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, which is not overpowering at 92.8 MPH and doesn't generate a ton of spin. He works the pitch up in the zone and is a fly-ball pitcher with an average overall launch angle of 21.3 degrees. Perhaps hitters weren't used to this pitch approach last season and have adjusted, as his swinging-strike rates are down on all of his pitches.

He has thrown the ball in the zone slightly more with a 52.5% zone rate compared to 50.1% last season. However, he has gotten fewer chases and has seen a big jump in contact rate from 76.5% to 82.4%. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, as Abbott has avoided hard contact, with an average exit velocity and hard-hit rate in the 79th and 90th percentiles of baseball. He will still give up homers occasionally as a fly-ball pitcher pitching his home games in Great American Ballpark, but his 11.0% HR/FB rate is tolerable.

Andrew Abbott talks about his tough luck loss following the 3-1 defeat at the hands of the Brewers. #Reds pic.twitter.com/7rLuxY8rsS

— Bally Sports Cincinnati (@BallySportsCIN) June 15, 2024

Abbott displayed above-average strikeout skills during his minor-league tenure, which seemed to carry over in 2023. Those skills have not translated in 2024, but Abbott has done other things well. He has greatly reduced the hard contact he has allowed despite keeping the ball in the air, leading to a .249 BABIP. His 4.63 SIERA suggests this approach may not work for Great American Ballpark, but his 3.31 xERA is encouraging.

The big drop in strikeouts is perplexing, but there haven't been any discernable changes in Abbott's pitch arsenal. Fantasy managers will need a greater sample to know for sure if this is just a blip, but I am not ready to buy that Abbott's low CSW% and strikeout rate will persist for the rest of the season.

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