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We have a strong Friday slate on tap with an abundance of prop picks to select from. In this article, I will break down several plays that are worth taking a shot on. I will be here each and every Friday and Sunday throughout the season to break down pitcher and hitter props.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, April 26, 2024. If you ever want to chat about any MLB bets, you can find me on X @LucidMediaDFS
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Emerson Hancock UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-136, FanDuel)
I'll start today's slate with a trio of pitching unders, leading off with Emerson Hancock. I believe this number is too high for Hancock, who has only hit this number once in four outings this season, a six-strikeout performance against the Brewers on April 7. The Diamondbacks haven't been a high-strikeout team in 2024, striking out at roughly a 19% clip against righties this season. My model projects Hancock to strike guys out at a 17.85% clip today, finishing his night with a projected 3.95 strikeouts. We're getting good value on this number at -136 on FanDuel.
Ross Stripling UNDER 15.5 Outs (-140, BetMGM)
Ross Stripling and the Athletics are coming in with some momentum following a series split with the Yankees earlier than the week. Sending an established veteran like Stripling to the mound is the perfect antithesis to the Orioles' young and exciting lineup. The issue for Stripling is, that the Orioles lineup is exciting for a reason, as they rank fourth in the Majors in WRC+ (124) against right-handed pitching. The Athletics always seem to look to get length out of Stripling, but I think the Orioles get to him in this one, as my model projects him to record just 14.66 outs tonight. He may get through five innings, but I can't see him pitching into the sixth.
Logan Allen UNDER 15.5 Outs (-120 BetMGM)
I'll look at a second outs prop under here with Logan Allen. Allen has only gone under this number twice in five starts this season, once against Oakland and once against the White Sox. Unfortunately for Allen, he walks into a difficult matchup this evening against the Braves, who rank seventh in wRC+ (120) and ninth in OBP (.337) against left-handed pitching. Like Stripling, I can't see Allen working into this sixth inning today, and my model has him projected for 14.91 outs recorded.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Shohei Ohtani OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-145 DraftKings)
I'll start things off on the hitters' side with Shohei Ohtani. Why not, he's seemingly been the best hitter in baseball across the first month of the season. He'll take on Chris Bassitt, whom he hasn't had much success against in his career, with just five hits in 27 plate appearances. Nevertheless, Ohtani projects to a whopping 2.51 total bases today, partnered with a projected .564 wOBA against the right-hander. That in and of itself makes me feel good about taking this prop, despite the "juice" that comes with it.
Shohei Ohtani CRUSHES a 450-FOOT HR 😱
(via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/fxzswbEju8
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) April 24, 2024
Jordan Westburg OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-125 DraftKings)
I'll wrap things up today with Jordan Westburg and the Orioles. I mentioned earlier that I don't believe Ross Stripling will pitch deep into this game, which opens the door for the Orioles offense to do damage. Westburg has come into this season strong with a .447 wOBA in the first month of the 2024 season. The Baltimore lineup is strong from top to bottom, creating a perfect opportunity to rack up hits, runs, and RBIs at a high clip in this one. Stripling has shown some reverse splits this season, struggling more against righties than lefties, and my model projects Westburg to record 2.02 H+R+RBI here.
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