X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Early Season - Fantasy Football Quarterbacks to Avoid Heading Into 2024

Tua Tagovailoa - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Andrew Ball details potential quarterback busts for fantasy football early in the NFL offseason and explains why you should avoid drafting them.

Are you a fantasy football manager who prefers to wait to select your quarterback or one who spends a higher pick on one of the elite options? Unfortunately, neither strategy is bust-proof.

Patrick Mahomes was proof of that in 2023. A consensus top-three signal-caller, Mahomes ended the season as the QB8, a tough pill for players who used their second- or third-round selection on the two-time MVP. The most talented quarterback in the NFL did not have the appropriate weapons around him to live up to his fantasy football draft capital. Instead, the Chiefs were able to run the ball and stifle opposing offenses en route to another Super Bowl victory.

Like Mahomes, situations are changing for the three quarterbacks listed below, who fantasy managers may want to avoid in 2024.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett have all moved east. That's the three top target earners for the Chargers, plus Williams, who would have fallen in that category if not for a season-ending knee injury. Former head coach Brandon Staley and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore have also found new jobs. Justin Herbert is the constant of a franchise undergoing significant renovations.

Change isn't always a bad thing. New coaches and receivers can sometimes unlock an extra level of production never before seen from a quarterback. This isn't one of those times.

Every transaction that head coach Jim Harbaugh and general manager Joe Hortiz have made indicates a strategic shift toward building an elite defense and bruising running attack. Hortiz came to Los Angeles from Baltimore, brought former Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman with him, and shipped out their alpha, albeit aging, franchise wide receiver.

Some of those moves had to be made. Los Angeles could not afford to retain both receivers plus pass-rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. They opted to keep the defenders, leaving Herbert with Joshua Palmer and first-round bust Quentin Johnston as his top wideouts.

Harbaugh only allowed Michigan product J.J. McCarthy to throw 22 times a game last season, including 18 in the National Championship. If Harbaugh can win with "the best quarterback in the draft" barely slinging, why wouldn't he use Herbert the same way?

The Chargers do own the fifth overall pick in the NFL Draft. If quarterbacks fly off the board early, as is anticipated, Harbaugh and Co. will get their pick of the litter. Receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers will be enticing and would recoup some of Herbert's lost value if one is selected. However, they could just as easily stay committed to their style of football and pick offensive tackle Joe Alt.

 

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

How can a quarterback throwing to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle be a bust? Miami has too much talent from its skill positions and added to the group with tight end Jonnu Smith.

Tua Tagovailoa proved exactly how in 2023. Fantasy managers sometimes only think about wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs when analyzing quarterbacks. Offensive linemen don't score fantasy points on Sundays, but they're arguably just as important when looking at the bigger picture.

Tagovailoa was the QB5 through nine weeks heading into the team's bye week, averaging a healthy 19.2 points per game (the same number as soon-to-be MVP Lamar Jackson). From Week 14 through the end of the regular season, that figure slipped to 12.8 points per game, good for QB21.

Hill and Waddle were in and out of the lineup due to injuries but the primary reason for Tagovailoa's struggles was due to injuries along the offensive line. Center Connor Williams tore his ACL on that Monday Night Football matchup with Tennessee in Week 14, joining guard Robert Hunt and tackle Terron Armstead on the sideline.

Tagovailoa was pressured on 21.66% of his dropbacks in that late-season window, despite defenses blitzing less often than in previous games. Twelve of Tagovailoa's 29 sacks he took in 2023 also came in that time frame.

Armstead has never played an entire season in his 11-year career and will turn 33 years old before training camp. Hunt signed with the Carolina Panthers in the offseason. Williams' knee injury is preventing him from signing with the Dolphins or another team. The Dolphins have one reliable, high-performing offensive lineman for the upcoming season, free-agent addition Aaron Brewer.

One potential positive for Tagovailoa will be the play of the Miami defense. The unit was average in 2023, despite several high-profile names like Jalen Ramsey, Xavien Howard, Bradley Chubb, Jaelen Phillips, and Christian Wilkins. Two of those five names (Howard and Wilkins) aren't on the roster anymore. Two others (Chubb and Phillips) suffered a torn ACL and Achilles, respectively, late in the season and may not be ready for the start of the 2024 campaign. Andrew Van Ginkel, Jerome Baker, and DeShon Elliott have also departed. The depth chart is littered with holes.

That's a screenshot of the depth chart listed on the Dolphins' official website. Granted, it doesn't account for offseason additions like linebackers Jordyn Brooks and Anthony Walker Jr., safety Jordan Poyer, or cornerback Kendall Fuller. If the defense can't slow down opposing offenses, Tagovailoa will often face a game script that behooves his fantasy numbers.

 

Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers

Despite the debacle in Denver, Russell Wilson's name still carries a lot of weight to casual NFL fans. He's a Super Bowl champion and MVP, married to a celebrity, and remains one of the goofiest online personas.

The part of Wilson's 2023 season that will be remembered come August is his late-season benching to career backup Jarrett Stidham. But it wasn't due to poor performance. Sure, Denver was all but eliminated from the postseason after an embarrassing home loss to the lowly Patriots on Christmas Eve, but the Broncos were ready to start anew. They knew they'd part ways with Wilson in the offseason and didn't want an injury interfering with their plans.

Before that benching, Wilson was fantasy football's QB9. His touchdown rate jumped from 3.3% in 2022 to 5.8% in 2023, more in line with his career average. He also rushed 25 more times in the same amount of games. A real rapport was made with wide receiver Courtland Sutton. Jerry Jeudy may have finished just 14 receiving yards behind his counterpart, but there was little question about who the WR1 was in Denver. Ten of Wilson's 26 passing touchdowns were snagged by Sutton.

Wilson better hope George Pickens becomes his new Courtland Sutton in Pittsburgh or that touchdown rate may slip again. The Steelers opted to ship out Diontae Johnson this offseason, sliding Pickens to the top of the depth chart. The third-year wideout notched 1,140 yards on 63 receptions, leading the league with 18.1 yards per catch. While nearly all of his numbers increased from Year 1 to Year 2, Pickens did not score a red-zone touchdown in 2023.

Wilson will connect with Pickens on several deep passes in 2024 (although his fantastic "moon ball" completion numbers have plummeted since his impressive mark in 2018), but he'll need a reliable underneath option to be worthy of a starting spot on fantasy rosters.

Calvin Austin III and Van Jefferson are currently the next-best receivers on the roster. Tight end Pat Freiermuth may end up being the runner-up in the target department.

Head coach Mike Tomlin has historically leaned on his running backs to move the football on offense. Riding Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, the Steelers finished fifth in run percentage in 2023. The team right above them, the Atlanta Falcons, fired their head coach and play-caller, Arthur Smith. He's now in charge of the offensive playbook in the Steel City and brought another running back, Cordarrelle Patterson, with him. The run game will be established.

Wilson may be an upgrade over Kenny Pickett, but he is more of a glorified game manager in black and yellow. That's if he's winning games; otherwise, the fan base will scream for Justin Fields to take the field.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
Laken Tomlinson

Confident in Texans Offensive Line
J.K. Dobbins

the Starter in Denver?
JT Woods

Seahawks Release JT Woods
Darren Waller

Trade to Miami Becomes Official
Asante Samuel Jr.

Dolphins Interested in Asante Samuel Jr.
Nyheim Hines

Seeking Return to NFL
Dak Prescott

Expects to be Full-Go for Training Camp
Ajay Mitchell

Posts 16 Points in Summer League Win on Monday
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Waived by Bucks
Brice Sensabaugh

Logs 37 points in Summer League Win on Monday
Luis Garcia

Fans Four in Rehab Outing
GG Jackson II

Collects 27 Points in Summer League Loss
Ace Bailey

Scores 18 Points in Summer League Victory
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Kobe Bufkin

Cleared for Summer League Action
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Agrees to Contract Buyout with Bucks
PGA

Sungjae Im Still a Liability at Scottish Open
James Wiseman

Pacers Bring Back James Wiseman
Ludvig Aberg

is a Solid Option at Scottish Open
Tyrese Haliburton

to Miss Entire 2025-26 Campaign
Paolo Banchero

Signs Historic Five-Year Extension with Magic
Anthony Santander

Hoping to Hit Soon
Luis Robert Jr.

Returning in Short Order
Alex Bregman

Could Return Later This Week
Ketel Marte

Day-to-Day with Groin Tightness
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Hunter Greene

Suffers Setback on Monday
Kyle Lowry

Staying With 76ers
Kyle Anderson

Lands in Utah
Kevin Love

Traded to Jazz in 3-Team Swap
Norman Powell

Traded to Miami
John Collins

Dealt to Clippers
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied For 14 at Travelers Championship
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For 61 at Travelers Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Tied For 17 at Travelers Championship
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For 11 at John Deere Classic
Viktor Hovland

Withdraws From Travelers Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For Second at Travelers Championship
Brian Campbell

Wins John Deere Classic
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 10 Points
Harrison Ingram

Limited on Sunday
Golden State Warriors

Isaiah Mobley Drops 16 Points
Ryan Rollins

Staying with Bucks
T.J. Watt

Pittsburgh Still Not Close on New Contract
Terry McLaurin

Still Not Pleased with Contract Situation
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF