RADIO
The stage is set for the 2024 NCAA Tournament. We start with a play-in appetizer, followed by the greatest weekend in sports. 48 games in four days. A field whittled down to 16 teams from 64. There is nothing on earth like it, and we here at RotoBaller will be with you every step of the way.
There are blue-blooded heavyweights in the South with both Duke and Kentucky lurking here. Oh... the Florida team that beat Alabama twice is also hiding in the weeds. The Midwest bracket looks like the one of pure chaos, but the South may not be far behind.
Once you're done here, be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and guides on how to fill out your bracket, including other predictions for the regions.
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South Region Favorites
(1) Houston (30-4)
Half of Houston's losses are to one team (Iowa State). All four losses are in the conference. Three were road games and the other was at the conference tournament in Kansas City. Houston has the second-best point differential in the country and beat a couple of trendy tournament teams in Texas A&M and Dayton. Unlike many of their higher-seeded peers, Houston didn't really challenge themselves out of conference this year.
(2) Marquette (25-9)
I agree with the committee not punishing Marquette because of the three losses without Tyler Kolek. He is expected to be back for Marquette's first game this week. Marquette might be the deepest team in the tournament. There are a lot of pieces on this team that play well together. Their veteran leadership is a plus.
(3) Kentucky (23-9)
This is a hard team to figure out. They lost to UNC-Wilmington in December and lost four of six at one point in January. They closed the season winning five of the last six, including games against Alabama, Tennessee, and a red-hot Arkansas team. Kentucky is second in the country with 89.4 points per game and they lead the nation in three-point percentage at 41.2%. Kentucky is also a deep team that will run at least 10 players per game.
(4) Duke (24-8)
The Blue Devils are a good team, but that's about it. They have enough holes that teams like Pitt, Arkansas, Georgia Tech, and Wake all beat them. So did North Carolina State. Kyle Filipowski carried the team as much as he could. The guards are all young. If they decide to return next year (unlikely), this could be a special Duke team in 2024-25. Right now they are just... good.
South Region Fatal Flaws
All teams have one or two things that could keep them from reaching their full potential. Here we will run the gamut of the main things that will hold teams in this region back.
Houston: Free throws. Houston shoots just 69.4% from the foul line, which is 290th in the country.
Marquette: Rebounding. Marquette picks up just 32.8 rebounds per game, which is 315th in the nation. Only Montana State and Grambling are worse among tournament teams.
Kentucky: Comparing the Wildcats from December and January to now, you would have no idea that this is the same team. They can be beaten by teams with good perimeter shooters and interior athletes with the size to push them around. That's a very short list of teams.
Duke: Nothing really stands out as a flaw, but Duke is average at everything. Is being painfully average a flaw? Okay, so maybe Duke isn't average average, but they are average for a Duke team. This team is good at everything but excels at nothing.
Wisconsin: The Badgers got much better as the season went on. The loss at The Vault in January when they blew a 20-point lead sent them into a tailspin for a while. Coming into the Big Ten Tournament, Wisconsin has lost eight of the last 10 games. Forget the nice little run they had in Minneapolis. That was basically home games. The Badgers are dreadful on the boards (327th at 33.9 per game) and don't have good guard play. They're the weakest five seed, and it's not close.
Texas Tech: You know when I said Duke was average? Texas Tech is the real average. They are almost exactly in the middle in points, points allowed, three-point shooting, regular shooting, and rebounds. They are above-average from the line and near the bottom in blocks per game. If Duke's "average" is their flaw, Texas Tech's is being NCAA average.
Florida: Three-point shooting. The Gators shot just 34.2% from distance. That's the worst of any team in the top 10 in scoring.
Nebraska: Their home/road splits are enormous. The Cornhuskers were awful on the road except for a win at the Octagon in December.
South Region Ceilings
We know the floor of every team, right? They can all lose in the first round. Top overall seed Virginia lost on the first day of the tournament in 2017. In this section, we'll explore the realistic ceiling of every team in the bracket.
Houston: This might be the most complete team that Kelvin Sampson has ever coached. The elite defense is still there, but the Cougars can score some points this year as well. The lack of consistent scoring hurt them last year, but Baylor transfer L.J. Cryer has alleviated most of that concern. Houston is good enough to win it all.
Marquette: Marquette wasn't punished by their seed number, but they are in a bad spot. Florida is the type of team that will give Marquette fits. Boise State is Florida with less talent. The ceiling for Marquette feels like a Sunday game. This is an absolutely brutal draw for Marquette.
Kentucky: The Wildcats landed in a really good spot. Texas Tech isn't the kind of team that can beat them. They split with the Gators this year, but Micah Handlogten was a factor in both of those games. The Wildcats can likely make it to a regional final before they really get tested. I don't feel like this is a championship team, but they might be good enough for a Final Four run.
Duke: Something can be said for being a good team. Honestly, Duke got a really good draw. Probably the best of any four seed this year. A Sweet Sixteen bid is likely, but I don't see them beating Houston unless the Cougars have a really off day.
Wisconsin: The Badgers won't make it out of the first day. James Madison beat Michigan State to open the season and were good against everyone not named Appalachian State.
Texas Tech: This is kind of a rough draw for Tech. North Carolina State is hotter than anyone. If they survive that game, they get a white-hot Kentucky team. The Red Raiders won't make it out of Pittsburgh.
Florida:
Just an update on Florida: Losing Micah Handlogten moves down about 7 spots from 20th to 27th in the country. Really a bummer given their high ceiling. https://t.co/x5IjJV52AC
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) March 18, 2024
The loss of Micah Handlogten with a broken leg hurts them, but Alex Condon is playing his best basketball of the season. Whoever wins the play-in is going to be a tough out, but if the Gators win that, a run to the regional final is more than possible. They match up well with Marquette and Duke/Texas Tech. They even match up with Houston as well as anyone can. If Condon plays like he has been for 30+ minutes a game, this could be a Final Four team.
Nebraska: Nebraska was solid on neutral courts this year, but their return to the tournament after a decade-long hiatus is going to be a short one. This is a brutal draw for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers can shoot any team out of the building, but the Aggies are playing the best they have all season right now.
Texas A&M: The Aggies are rolling. They couldn't oust Auburn in the SEC Tournament, so asking them to beat a similar Houston team is likely too much to ask. It's a one-and-done year for the Aggies.
Boise State/Colorado: I don't like that this is a play-in game. This is going to be a fun one to watch. KJ Simpson is capable of leading Colorado into the second weekend, but they also might not make it past tomorrow night. Boise is a solid team, but their lack of a true point guard hurts the team. If they beat Colorado, they will have significant problems with Florida.
North Carolina State: The Pack had lost four straight and seven of nine before their miracle five-game run through the ACC Tournament. If the good N.C. State team shows up, they could give Kentucky a fight. If not, Texas Tech will blow them out.
James Madison: The win over Michigan State in the opener shocked the country, but they followed it up with a win against a good Kent team. The Dukes haven't been tested in a while, but they got a good draw. Expect a Duke vs. Dukes game for a trip to Dallas. Don't be too shocked if the plural makes it to the Sweet Sixteen. They're not getting past Houston though.
Vermont: This is a good team with a horrible matchup. Vermont is usually strong up front. Not this incarnation. The Catamounts are done in the first game this year.
Oakland: I don't understand how Duquesne gets an 11-seed, but Oakland winds up here. This team nearly beat Ohio State, hung with Illinois, beat Xavier, gave Drake everything they wanted, and should have beaten Toledo. I'm happy that the nation gets to see Trey Townsend, but it's only going to last one game. I like Oakland, but they won't be able to keep up with Kentucky.
Western Kentucky: If Marquette gets caught goofing off, the Hilltoppers might snipe them. This isn't a great outside shooting team, but they are strong on the boards and 31st in the nation in scoring. They're going to put up a fight.
Longwood: The Lancers hung with Dayton, who is like a mini-Houston. This means real Houston should beat them by double figures.
Most Intriguing First-Round Matchup
(8) Nebraska vs. (9) Texas A&M
If you've never been to Nebraska or played them in any sport, there is something you need to know. Their fans are crazy. They unapologetically love their team when they haven't loved them back (except for the volleyball team) in decades. That's why this is a big deal. Nebraska always travels for its football and basketball teams. I wanted someone to love me as much as Nebraska fans loved their teams... so I had to marry a Nebraska fan.
Nebraska fans also hold grudges like no one else I've ever seen. They still hate Bill Callahan. He hasn't coached there in 16 years. They still can't hear the name Terrence Nunn without a complete meltdown. That fumble against Texas was in 2006. The latest to draw the ire of Nebraska fans is Trev Alberts. He played linebacker at Nebraska during the glory days of the early 90s and became the athletic director in 2021.
He said all the right things. He kissed all the right babies. He even fired Scott Frost (even though it was a year too late). Perhaps the best thing he did was bring in Matt Rhule. Then he did the unthinkable: he spurned the Huskers for... Texas A&M. Alberts became the athletic director for the Aggies last week, leaving Nebraska deserted by another former player from the golden era.
— Danny Mcginnis ⚡️? (@Vadertimez) March 19, 2024
So what does the NCAA do? They pit the men's and women's basketball teams against Texas A&M in the first round of both the men's and women's tournaments. Sometimes I love these guys! This almost makes up for putting Virginia in the field. Almost.
Bust of the South Region
Marquette. Western Kentucky won't beat them, but after watching what Florida did to Alabama twice, the Gators might even be favored in that game... even without Micah Handlogten. If for some reason Tyler Kolek can't play or isn't at full strength, they won't make it out of the first weekend.
Dark Horse Play
Florida. The Gators playing Alex Condon and Micah Handlogten half and half all season long inadvertently prepared them for this moment. The Gators lost to Kentucky by two at home and beat them in Rupp, so Kentucky is not some massive roadblock for Florida. If Condon can play like he did in limited minutes for 30-35 minutes, this team is going to the regional final.
West Regional Picks
First round: Houston, Texas A&M, James Madison, Duke, Texas Tech, Kentucky, Florida, Marquette
Second round: Houston, Duke, Kentucky, Florida
Regional semifinal: Houston, Florida
Regional champion: I said at the top that this is the most complete team that Kelvin Sampson has ever had. That previous distinction belonged to the 2001-02 Oklahoma team that lost to Indiana in the Final Four. They might not cut the nets down in Phoenix, but they will in Dallas.
More March Madness Analysis
