RADIO
While most regular fantasy football players have learned to ignore the tight end position unless the player’s name is Travis Kelce, the position got a much-needed group of reinforcements this past season. We saw several young players take big steps and appear poised to conduct a changing of the guard in 2024. That’s especially true with elite tight end prospect, Brock Bowers, expected to be drafted in the top 10 of the 2024 NFL Draft.
For years, fantasy managers really didn’t have many good choices behind the top three -- Kelce, Mark Andrews, and George Kittle -- but that appears to be changing. The 2023 NFL Draft saw four tight ends drafted in the first two rounds. We’ll be touching on two of them, but even Michael Mayer and Luke Musgrave showed plenty of promise and will undoubtedly show up on plenty of sleepers lists for the 2024 fantasy football season.
We’ll be focusing on four tight ends who truly broke out this past season and three who earned an honorable mention. To qualify as a breakout tight end, players have to accomplish two things. First, they needed to be a relevant fantasy producer. This is the hardest qualifier for tight ends since, so few end up making a difference. The second is by being an efficient and effective receiver.
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Previous Breakout Performances Entries
2023 Breakout Wide Receivers – Part One
2023 Breakout Wide Receivers – Part Two
Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions
Despite being a rookie, LaPorta finished as the TE1 in half-PPR, averaging 11.6 PPG and just beating Travis Kelce’s 11.5 half-PPR PPG. That is absolutely unheard of. Since 2000, there have been 270 tight ends drafted. LaPorta was the only tight end during that time who scored more than 150 half-PPR points during their rookie season and he scored 196.3. Among rookie tight ends since 2000, LaPorta finished second in targets, first in receptions, third in yards, and tied for first in touchdowns.
He finished the season with 10 top-12 weekly finishes, which included seven finishes where he finished in the top six. He finished as a top-17 tight end in 15 out of the relevant 17 fantasy football games. Unfortunately, he had his two worst weeks late in the season. He scored 3.7 half-PPR points en route to a TE32 finish in Week 14 and 3.3 half-PPR points in Week 16, finishing as the TE38. However, he did finish as the TE1 with 26.1 in the first week of the fantasy playoffs and did well for fantasy managers in Week 17, championship week, finishing with 11.9 points and a TE6 finish.
LaPorta was one of the Lions’ most important offensive players. Despite being a rookie, they showed no hesitation in making him a focal point of their system. He finished with a 21.1% target share, which ranked sixth among tight ends and he had a 24.0% targets per route run rate that finished fifth. His 1.78 yards per route run average ranked sixth among tight ends and displayed an elite level of efficiency from a rookie tight end. He also averaged 1.47 yards per team pass attempt, which was the eighth-highest. His contested catch rate of 61.9% was seventh-best. The dude just dominated across the board.
LaPorta cemented himself as a top-five tight end for the upcoming 2024 season. Outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown, the Lions lack established pass-catchers and LaPorta has already laid claim to that second spot in the pecking order. He should once again be hyper-targeted next season. Among tight ends this past season, he finished with 120 targets (fifth-most), 86 receptions (fourth-most), 889 yards (fifth-most), and 10 touchdowns (first).
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals
For the first seven weeks of the season, McBride was playing second fiddle to Zach Ertz. During these first seven weeks, he averaged just 12.5 routes per game. His snap never went over 61% and it was below 30% on two occasions. Following Week 7, Ertz was placed on IR and McBride became the undisputed starting tight end. From Weeks 8-18, he averaged 31.8 routes per game, an increase of 19.3. His snap share fluctuated between 70% to 100%. He had snap shares higher than 80% in seven out of the remaining 10 games. Below you can see McBride’s averages during this Week 8-18 stretch.
| Time | Target Share | Target Rate | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | Air Yards Share | YAC/Rec | YPRR | YPT | Yards Per Team Pass Attempt | Half-PPR PPG |
| Weeks 8-18 | 24% | 27% | 8.5 | 6.6 | 65.5 | 52.0 | 23% | 5.03 | 2.06 | 7.71 | 1.83 | 11.7 |
McBride completely dominated. He wasn’t just good, he was borderline the best fantasy and most efficient tight end over the second half of the season. Using his per-game averages from above over 17 games, he would have finished with 145 targets, 112 receptions, and 1,114 yards. Those would have all been first among tight ends this season except receptions, only Evan Engram would have had more with 114. Here’s where his Week 8-18 averages would have ranked against tight ends from the 2023 season:
- Target Share – 2nd
- Target Per Route Run Rate – 1st
- Targets Per Game – 1st
- Receptions Per Game – 2nd
- Receiving Yards Per Game – 2nd
- Air Yards Share – 3rd
- Yard Per Route Run Average – 2nd
- Yard Per Target Average – 11th
- Yard Per Team Pass Attempt Average – 3rd
- Half-PPR PPG Average – 1st
For fantasy purposes, in nine games from Weeks 8-17, McBride finished as a top-seven tight end five times. He had two other top-15 weekly performances. During this time, he had four games with 15 or more half-PPR points. He was one of the best fantasy tight ends during the second half of the season. He provided weekly consistency but also provided several high-scoring weekly performances.
Kyler Murray will be back in 2024. The same coaching staff will be back. Marquise Brown is a free agent and likely will sign elsewhere because the Cardinals will utilize their fourth pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to select Marvin Harrison Jr. or Malik Nabers. Regardless of who they take, it shouldn’t affect McBride’s standing at all. He’s a top-five tight end heading into 2024 and there’s an argument to be made that he should be the TE1.
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
Njoku has had good seasons before. In 2018, his second season in the league, he had 88 targets, 56 receptions, 639 yards, and four touchdowns. He averaged 7.2 half-PPR PPG. In 2022, he had 80 targets, 58 receptions, 628 yards, and four touchdowns. He averaged 7.8 half-PPR PPG. Both seasons were good, but neither constituted a true breakout season. Not like this past season.
He finished 2023 with 123 targets (third-most), 81 receptions (fifth-most), 882 yards (sixth-most), and six touchdowns (tied for second-most). What’s most impressive about those numbers is that the Browns started four different quarterbacks. Three of them were terrible, one was okay, and the other was Joe Flacco, who just happened to be significantly better than the other four.
To have the kind of season Njoku had with that kind of movement at the quarterback position is remarkable. Despite receiving shoddy quarterback play for 12 out of the 17 games, Njoku still was able to maintain a high level of efficiency. Among tight ends with at least 40 targets, this is where he finished in several key statistics:
- Eighth-Highest Yard Per Reception Average (10.9)
- Second-Highest YAC Per Reception Average (7.4)
- Eighth-Highest Broken Tackle Per Reception Average (One Broken Tackle Every Nine Receptions)
- Fifth-Highest Target Share (21.5%)
- Third-Highest Target Per Route Run Average (24.7%)
- Seventh-Highest Yard Per Route Run Average (1.77)
- Seventh-Highest Yards Per Team Pass Attempt Average (1.47)
Despite those outstanding marks, just 74% of his targets were deemed catchable, according to PlayerProfiler. This ranked 33rd among tight ends. Because of this, Njoku finished with the seventh-most unrealized air yards among tight ends with 283. This is all to say that as good of a season as he had, Njoku’s season could have been even better if he received just average quarterback play for most of the season.
From Weeks 1-12, when Njoku caught passes from Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Deshaun Watson, and P.J. Walker, he averaged 7.7 half-PPR PPG. From Weeks 13-17 with Joe Flacco, he averaged 15.2 half-PPR PPG. The stark difference between Njoku’s stats between the first three quarterbacks and Flacco is substantial.
| Time | Target Share | Target Rate | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | Air Yards Share | YAC/Rec | YPRR | YPT | Yards Per Team Pass Attempt | Half-PPR PPG |
| Weeks 1-12 | 18.5% | 22.9% | 7.1 | 4.6 | 44.7 | 25.6 | 9% | 7.24 | 1.44 | 6.30 | 1.16 | 7.7 |
| Weeks 13-17 | 21.1% | 28.6% | 9.0 | 6.0 | 78.0 | 56.8 | 15% | 7.67 | 2.48 | 8.66 | 1.83 | 15.2 |
What Njoku needs is a consistent quarterback. It doesn’t need to be Patrick Mahomes. Goodness, Joe Flacco was good enough. Njoku finished as the TE6 with a 10.0 half-PPR PPG average, but as evidenced above, that doesn’t tell you the whole story. From Weeks 7-17, Njoku finished as a top-12 tight end in every week but one. He is the definition of a league winner.
From Weeks 7-17, he averaged 12.5 half-PPR PPG, which was second to only T.J. Hockenson. Njoku saved the best for last, which fantasy managers are super thankful for. In Week 14, Njoku scored 24.1 half-PPR points and finished as the TE2. He followed that up by finishing as the TE2 again in Week 15 with 21.4 points during the first week of the fantasy football playoffs. He scored 13.4 half-PPR points in Week 16 and finished as the TE3. During championship week for fantasy football, Njoku scored 14.4 points in Week 17 en route to another TE3 finish. It truly does not get any better than that.
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
Engram has had good seasons before. As a rookie, he had 115 targets, 64 receptions, 722 yards, and six touchdowns. As far as rookie tight ends go, it was one of the best seasons ever. In 2019, his third season in the league, he had 68 targets, 44 receptions, 467 yards, and three touchdowns in just eight games. He had been on pace for 136 targets, 88 receptions, 934 yards, and six touchdowns. In 2022, he had 98 targets, 73 receptions, 766 yards, and four touchdowns.
In those three seasons, he finished as the TE4 (9.4 half-PPR PPG) as a rookie, TE6 (10.9 PPG) in 2019, and TE8 (8.5 PPG) this past season. Astonishingly, his TE7 finish this past season is just his third-best even though it was by far his best statistical season. He averaged 9.7 half-PPR PPG, which is his second-best PPG average, but just barely beats out his rookie average.
Still, even though Engram’s TE7 finish isn’t a true breakout in terms of what he’s done as recently as last season, he did have a historically great season. From 1965-2023, his 114 receptions are the second-most for a tight end all-time. Even if you take away the 10 receptions he had in Week 18, he’d still have had 104 receptions under the old 16 game schedule and this would have ranked eighth-highest. His 963 yards were the 64th-highest of all-time. Targets were not tracked by the NFL until 1992, but since that time, Engram’s 143 currently sit in 15th place.
He finished with 143 targets (career-high, first among TEs in 2023), 114 receptions (career-high, first among TEs in 2023), and 963 yards (career-high, third among TEs in 2023). That, in and of itself, constitutes a breakout season. However, there were some areas Engram struggled in. Among tight ends with at least 40 targets this past season, of which there were 30 Engram finished:
- 29th in Yards Per Reception (8.4)
- 26th in Yards Per Target (6.7)
- 19th in YAC Per Reception (4.5)
- Ninth-Highest Drop Percentage (4.9%)
However, Engram did shine in other areas. He had the second-highest target share among tight ends at 23.8%, which was also a career-high for him and the seventh-highest targets per route run rate at 23.7%. He finished ninth in yards per route run at 1.60 and fifth in yards per team pass attempt at 1.56, also a new career-high.
He finished as the TE7 this past season with a 9.7 half-PPR PPG average. He appeared in 16 fantasy-relevant matchups and finished as a top-12 performer in nine of them. However, he scored more than 13 half-PPR points in just two games all season. He had three other weeks where he finished as the TE14 (twice) and TE13, so he finished as a top-15 tight end in 12 out of 16 weeks. That sounds fantastic and it is, but he had just five weeks where he scored double-digits.
He did finish as the TE6 in Week 16 during fantasy football playoffs, scoring 12.5 half-PPR points, and was the TE10 during championship week in Week 17, scoring nine half-PPR points. Engram is a tough evaluation because in some categories (targets and receptions) his season was historic, but it still translated to a mid-TE1 performance for fantasy. Most of his weeks were solid, but very few ended up as true difference-makers.
Honorable Mention
Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
Ferguson was a fourth-round rookie in 2022 and finished with just 22 targets, 19 receptions, 174 yards, and two touchdowns. He exclusively played behind then starter, Dalton Schultz. When Schultz left in free agency, it opened the door for Ferguson to become the starter. He wasn’t overly productive in college. He didn’t have high draft capital and he isn’t an amazing athlete. However, all those things could have been said about Schultz and Dak Prescott targeted still him regularly. Ferguson became a popular sleeper pick this past season and for those who followed that advice, they’re very happy.
He finished with 102 targets (seventh-most), 71 receptions (ninth-most), 761 yards (eighth-most), and five touchdowns (tied for seventh-most). He finished as the TE9 with an 8.2 half-PPR PPG average. This number should have been even higher. He finished with 25 red zone targets, which was five more than the next closer player. He also had the most targets inside the 10-yard line with 12. Despite his high number of overall targets and the number of high-value targets he earned, Ferguson finished with just five touchdowns. He’ll be a positive touchdown candidate for 2024.
Ferguson finished 11th among tight ends with at least 40 targets with a 10.7 yards per reception. He was 12th in yards per target at 7.5. Neither number is overly impressive, but he was a very effective player after the catch. He averaged six yards after the catch per reception. This was the seventh-best. He finished 15th in yards per route run, averaging 1.49, and 13th in yards per team pass attempt at 1.24. His target share of 16.9% was just 16th and his target rate of 20.0% was even worse, ranking 17th among tight ends.
Out of 17 fantasy-relevant games, Ferguson had seven top-12 finishes, which includes four top-six weeks. He also added another TE13 weekly finish and TE15 weekly finish. He also added seven weeks where he finished below TE21. Unfortunately, for fantasy managers, two of those weeks came in Weeks 16 and 17 when he scored just 6.5 half-PPR points and 5.3 half-PPR points, respectively.
Ferguson is an honorable mention candidate because he wasn’t an elite fantasy option and he wasn’t an overly effective player for the Cowboys, but he was right on the cusp of being both. He was right there and considering he’s just a second-year player who made massive gains compared to his rookie season, he deserves recognition. However, he’s likely a player to sell moving forward. He’s not an overly efficient player and he required a lot of volume to make the fantasy impact he did have.
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
Kmet, like Ferguson, is another honorable mention who wasn’t an elite fantasy option and wasn’t a hyper-efficient player, but he was a good fantasy producer with good efficiency metrics. He just wasn’t quite good enough to fully classify as a true breakout, but his 2023 season was the best of his career and he deserves credit for that.
Not only that, but Kmet dealt with four and a half games from Tyson Bagent when Justin Fields was injured. This was also the most competent the Bears offense has looked in Kmet’s tenure with the team, so in that sense, it’s more than fair to expect Kmet’s career to continue moving in a positive trajectory.
He finished with 90 targets (ninth-most), 73 receptions (eighth-most), 719 yards (ninth-most), and six touchdowns (tied for second-most). However, it’s important to put some of those numbers in context. The Bears finished the 2023 season 27th in passing attempts, 27th in passing yards, and 23rd in passing touchdowns. They were 24th in completion percentage, eighth-highest interception rate, 24th in yards per pass attempt, and 25th in quarterback rating.
Their offense finished 18th in total points and 20th in total yards. They were a below-average offense and a bad passing offense. That context is important when looking at Kmet’s season. Despite this, here’s where Kmet ranked in some key metrics among tight ends with 40 or more targets:
- Third-Lowest Drop Rate (1.1%)
- Eighth-Highest Yard Per Target Average (8.0)
- 11th-Highest Target Share (19.3%)
- 12th-Highest Target Per Route Run Rate (21.6%)
- Eighth-Highest Yard Per Route Run Average (1.70)
- 10th-Highest Yards Per Team Pass Attempt Average (1.40)
- First in Contested Catch Rate (77.8%)
Kmet finished the 2023 season as the TE8 with an 8.7 half-PPR PPG average. He provided fantasy managers with 10 top-12 weekly performances, which included three top-five finishes. He scored over 20 half-PPR points on two occasions. He scored 1.9 half-PPR points in Week 6, which is the week Fields was injured and left in the first half. The following week, he put up a goose egg with Bagent under center. While he did well in Bagent's other three starts, these two weeks greatly hindered his PPG average.
If the Bears draft Caleb Williams with the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Kmet's value should be expected to increase going into the 2024 season. Even if the Bears stick with Fields and hire a more adept offensive coordinator, Kmet's value could yet increase as long as the Bears do not draft Marvin Harrison Jr. or Malik Nabers. His 2024 value is still very much undecided, but based on his positive 2023 performance, he should be a player fantasy managers have their eyes on.
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
Fantasy managers were pretty excited for Kincaid once the Bills drafted him. With Gabriel Davis being a perennial boom-or-bust player, Kincaid had a real opportunity -- or so it seemed -- to become Buffalo's second target behind Stefon Diggs. In the end, it wasn't Davis who held Kincaid back, but Dawson Knox.
Knox missed five games in the later in the season and fantasy managers got a whole different Kincaid experience. It was that stint that earned him an honorable mention. Not to mention, regardless of how high the expectations were, he was just a rookie tight end. History has told us that rookie tight ends often fail to make an immediate impact, but Kincaid had, in some ways, a historic rookie season that just so happened to be overshadowed by LaPorta.
Among tight ends drafted between 2000-2023, of which there have been 270 of them, Kincaid had the fifth-most targets of all of them in their rookie season. He also had the third-most receptions and fifth-most yards. Most would consider that a very impressive rookie season. Even among all tight ends in 2023, Kincaid's stats are impressive. He finished with 91 targets (ninth-most), 73 receptions (seventh-most), and 673 yards (10th-most), but just two touchdowns.
He got even better when Knox was out of the lineup and a big reason for that was opportunity. With Knox in the lineup, Kincaid averaged 25.3 routes per game, but in the five games Knox missed, Kincaid's routes per game jumped to 34.4. Below you can see how Kincaid's performance across the board was altered by Knox's presence.
| Time | Target Share | Target Rate | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | Air Yards Share | YAC/Rec | YPRR | YPT | Yards Per Team Pass Attempt | Half-PPR PPG |
| With Knox | 14.6% | 19.7% | 5.0 | 3.8 | 37.6 | 35.0 | 12% | 4.22 | 1.48 | 7.52 | 1.10 | 6.2 |
| Without Knox | 19.1% | 21.5% | 7.4 | 6.2 | 56.2 | 40.6 | 14% | 4.39 | 1.63 | 7.59 | 1.44 | 10.7 |
Extrapolating his five-game sample without Knox across 17 games, Kincaid would have finished with 126 targets, 105 receptions, and 955 yards. Using his without Knox stats, below is where Kincaid would have finished among these statistics in 2023:
- 12th in Target Share
- 12th in Target Rate
- Fifth in Targets Per Game
- Third in Receptions Per Game
- Fifth in Receiving Yards Per Game
- 15th in Air Yards Share
- Ninth in Yards Per Route Run
- 13th in Yards Per Target
- Ninth in Yards Per Team Pass Attempt
- Fifth in half-PPR PPG
Those are some impressive numbers, but they are over just a five-game sample. Kincaid did a lot of good things on the field, but his true breakout season might not come until 2025. Knox, if cut before 2024, would carry a $20.2 million dead cap hit and would actually cost the Bills $5.9 million in cap space.
However, after the 2024 season, the Bills can more easily cut Knox. It would carry a $7.8 million dead cap hit, but it would also free up $7.6 million in cap space. Needless to say, fantasy managers and Kincaid are stuck with Knox for another season.
Kincaid finished as the TE16 with a 6.8 half-PPR PPG average. During Weeks 8-13, Kincaid averaged 10.7 half-PPR PPG and was the TE7. He provided fantasy managers with six top-12 weekly performances. Four of them came when Knox was out of the lineup. He also had seven weekly finishes below TE20. For a rookie tight end working in a committee, that's to be expected.
Kincaid certainly showed glimpses of a player with top-five upside. Being connected to Josh Allen and the Bills offense for the next 3-4 years is definitely a good thing. Looking forward to 2024, Kincaid should be valued as a back-end TE1. Fantasy managers should expect Kincaid's role to grow, but with Knox's expected return, Kincaid's ceiling is likely capped for one more season. Estimated true breakout season, 2025.
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