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Justin Carter ranks the six Wildcard Weekend matchups in the NFL. Which game is the best and which playoff game is the worst?
It's time for NFL Wildcard Weekend! 12 of the 14 playoff teams begin their Super Bowl quest during this first week of the playoffs, but only six of those teams will move on to the Divisional Round.
There are some really compelling games on this weekend's slate, and also some games that just don't necessarily stack up to the others. Still, there's plenty of entertaining football ahead this weekend.
Let's take a look at how the six games this weekend stack up, starting with the lowest-ranked game.
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6. Steelers at Bills
I'm not one to skip an NFL playoff game, but I've got a newborn at home and if I had to plan his feeding/bathing/whatever schedule around these games, this is the one I'd be least upset to miss some of.
The Pittsburgh Steelers somehow managed to get to the playoffs despite three different quarterbacks starting games. Kenny Pickett started the most and he ended up throwing just six touchdowns across his 12 starts. The Steelers enter on a three-game win streak, but they've also lost games this year to the Cardinals and Patriots. Mason Rudolph's probably starting this game.
On the other side, the Buffalo Bills weren't their usual selves this year, but they're still the two-seed in the AFC. The team has won five in a row, with three of those wins coming against playoff teams. Josh Allen threw for 29 touchdowns and ran for another 15 of them. Buffalo's at home for this game. On paper, this one is just a huge mismatch. Credit to Pittsburgh for getting this far, but the Bills should roll.
5. Eagles at Buccaneers
The NFC South was just a nightmare division this year. The Buccaneers managed to win it with a 9-8 record in their first season post-Tom Brady, winning five of their final six to get to this point. It was an impressive run by the Bucs, who were quarterbacked by Baker Mayfield this season.
On the other hand, the team had just one win all year against a playoff team, going 1-5 against teams that made the postseason. This team had a top-10 scoring defense, but how much of that was because they had six games against NFC South teams?
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles—who beat Tampa 25-11 back in September—have had defensive issues all year, but will Tampa be able to take advantage of that? Philly ranks just 30th in scoring defense, allowing 25.2 points per game.
The Eagles should have a clear advantage here because of their offense. Maybe quarterback Jalen Hurts isn't as good as he was in 2022, but the Eagles can still outscore most teams. That should be the case on Monday night as well.
4. Packers at Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys enter the playoffs on a strong run, going 7-2 over their past nine games. Both losses were to AFC playoff teams, while there are also two wins over NFC playoff teams in that span, including a 33-13 win over the Philadelphia Eagles back in Week 14. Could this be the Cowboys' year? Dak Prescott was an MVP candidate this season, throwing for 4,516 yards and 36 touchdowns, while on defense we saw DaRon Bland pick off nine passes, returning five of those for touchdowns.
As for the Packers, Green Bay made it into the postseason at 9-8, but won three in a row to end the season. The Packers have some huge wins this year, posting back-to-back victories over the Lions and Chiefs in Weeks 12 and 13, but I worry about this team going on the road to face this Dallas pass defense in the playoffs. Jordan Love was really good, but he's still a first-year starter, and most of his receivers are in their first or second NFL campaigns.
3. Browns at Texans
Look, there's a good argument that this game should have been fourth since the Browns just beat the Texans soundly a couple of weeks ago, but the Texans were missing their secret weapon: rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Stroud, the No. 2 pick out of Ohio State, established himself as a top NFL QB this season, throwing 23 touchdowns and five picks in 15 games. He's shown a flair for the big moment, throwing a 75-yard touchdown on his first pass attempt of the game in Week 18 during a must-win game over the Colts.
Still, the Browns should be viewed as the favorites here after beating Houston 36-22 back on Christmas Eve. Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco killed this Texans defense, going for 368 yards and three touchdowns. Cleveland also boasts the NFL's best pass defense as far as yards allowed.
Cleveland probably wins this one, but Stroud's playoff debut is going to be must-watch television.
2. Rams at Lions
Alright, now we've reached the two biggest games on this weekend's slate, two heavyweight matchups where anyone can win.
At the No. 2 spot in the rankings, we have the Rams and Lions game, a battle of two quarterbacks who traded teams a few years back. This is a revenge game for Jared Goff and Matt Stafford, so expect fireworks.
Detroit comes in at 12-5 on the year. It's the first time the Lions have won 12 or more games since the 1991 season and their first division title since 1993. The team was fifth in points for this season, averaging 27.1 per game behind Goff's strong play, as the veteran QB threw 30 touchdown passes. The run game came up huge as well, with David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs combining to run for 1,960 yards.
As for the Rams, the team bounced back from last year's disappointing 5-12 campaign to finish 10-7. Wide receiver Puka Nacua broke the rookie records for receptions and receiving yards and Kyren Williams established himself as a top NFL running back. The team is 7-1 since its bye week, with wins over two playoff teams in that span. Sitting eighth in the NFL in points scored, don't count this Rams offense out.
1. Dolphins at Chiefs
Speaking of revenge games, we have another one here. Can former Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill lead his Dolphins team to a road playoff win against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs?
This wasn't the same Chiefs team we're used to, as issues with drops led to the Chiefs scoring 371 points, by far their fewest of the Mahomes era. Last season, that number was 496, for example.
Still, can you really bet against Mahomes in the postseason? He's never lost his playoff opener and has taken the Chiefs to the AFC Championship Game for five consecutive seasons, which also happens to be the number of seasons he's been an NFL starter.
The Dolphins have the best shot of anyone to hand Mahomes an early playoff loss, though. Miami backed into the playoffs with consecutive losses to the Ravens and Bills, but have scored the second-most points in the NFL this season, with Tyreek Hill finishing the regular season with 1,799 receiving yards while QB Tua Tagovailoa threw for 4,624 yards and 29 touchdowns. This is a dynamic offense.
However, the Chiefs shut Miamin down the last time these teams met, winning 21-14 in a Week 9 contest in Germany. That's tied for the fewest points Miami's scored this season.
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