Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Sony Open

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 10% off using code BALLER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Sony Open Model

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

• Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.

TeeOffSports membership

• $224.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
• You can also try things out for $14.99 per week or get the complete PGA Platinum package from everyone on the team for $299.99. I believe that deal is one of the best offers in the space since it includes top-notch work from the likes of Joe Nicely, Byron Lindeque, others, and myself!

 

Field

Field Size: 144
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 4

 

Last Five Winners Of The Sony Open

2023	Si Woo Kim	-18
2022	Hideki Matsuyama	-23
2021	Kevin Na	-21
2020	Cameron Smith	-11
2019	Matt Kuchar	-22

 

Expected Cut-Line

2023	-1
2022	-4
2021	2
2020	-1
2019	-1

 

Waialae Country Club

7,044 Yards - Par 70 - Greens: Bermuda

Designed in 1925 by Seth Raynor, Waialae Country Club has seen a few modifications over the last 100 years, including a 2016 renovation by Tom Doak to restore and infuse the original feel back into the layout. All of that radiates out of the course with its flat, tedious setup that emphasizes par-four scoring and ball striking. However, it is paramount to remember that while we will be staying in Hawaii for the second consecutive week, the only parallels I can spot between the two properties would be the Hawaiian Bermuda-style grass and a similar resemblance when it comes to ease.

Much narrower fairways and the aforementioned flat nature of the grounds will remove some of that undulation and wide-open feel that Kapalua presented at the Tournament of Champions. The straightforward layout may be the main culprit for why the venue ranks as the second most predictive in terms of rollover success, behind only Augusta National. Still, it is not as if we don't have some highly pronounced trends with the data when trying to calculate a model for the week.

We see that come into play with the emphasized proximity distribution out of Waialae from 125-200 yards, a range that creates 67.4% of the total shots and 12.3% more impact than a typical test. The hard-to-hit fairways did have me flip the new-school moniker of distance over accuracy to the tune of 63% accuracy versus 37% distance, and the ability to score on an easy test that has average-to-fast Bermuda greens consistently graded as one of the central answers if you wanted to find success.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat	Waialae	PGA Average
Driving Distance	286	283
Driving Accuracy	53%	62%
GIR Percentage	66%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	59%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.50	0.55

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Strokes Gained Off-The-Tee + Approach + Putting  (35%)

 

Strokes Gained Total: Short Par 70s (10%)

 

Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring (10%)

Weighted Scoring (25%)

 

Weighted Total Driving (10%)

 

Extra Emphasis Proximity 125-200 (10%)

Total Number Of Top-10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Player	Odds	Risk	Win
Brian Harman	25	0.3	7.5
Justin Rose	55	0.13	7.15
Lucas Glover	75	0.1	7.5
Adam Svensson	70	0.1	7

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

We are going to likely run into a spot where a lot of the ownership ends up trickling into the $9,000 range. That is already on full display when we look at the massive early popularity of guys like Corey Conners, Russell Henley, Chris Kirk and J.T. Poston.

Many of those decisions will come down to contest-specific builds since there is the potential for heavily duped lineups for those who choose to start with Conners/Henley in larger field tournaments. That said, I believe there are a few questions you should be asking yourself before you finalize your player pool?

1. How much leverage does that create in the $10,000+ range if everyone bolts into the $9,000s?
2. If that answer generates a substantial amount of leverage, can we take advantage of this group-think mentality?

Things are always subject to change as more data enters the market. Nonetheless, I found intrigue in Ludvig Aberg ($10,500), Tyrrell Hatton ($10,300) and Matthew Fitzpatrick ($10,200) if we see each man continue to grade outside the top 15 for popularity on the DraftKings slate. 

Most users are under this mentality that Aberg's slow start to the year at the Sentry could be compounded further with a course that may not suit his game. I will say that narrative isn't something my model projected after watching him land in the top 11 for all six categories I weighed at the Sony Open, but there are many  influential sites out there listing Aberg as a fringe top-10 win equity choice in this field. 

To me, that overcorrection feels like a significant mistake if it means we can grab one of the elite talents over the past 20 years as a contrarian option. 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

When we dive into the trendy names for the Sony Open, we are probably unjustifiably calling for fades in the $9,000 section that wouldn't be based on much more than ownership.

There is going to be some semblance of personal lineups that will grab a variation of Eric Cole, Chris Kirk, Russell Henley, Corey Conners and J.T. Poston. My specific construction will only allow for a handful of those names if I take a stance in the $10,000 range, but I didn't want to make it seem as if all were out of the running for me this week.

If you made me rank them on Monday, I would say I am in on Poston/Henley and out on Cole/Conners/Kirk. A substantial shift might change my mind in those areas, but there is one additional option that I wanted to discuss in Brian Harman if we are looking for the forgotten commodity of this group.

My model was extremely intrigued by Harman and his skillset for Waialae. Harman's third-place grade for weighted scoring generated the upside that I wanted to see, and his additional top-five mark for weighted strokes gained total provided a significant return that equaled or surpassed those with much more popularity.

For the sake of transparency, my early candidates for exposure from these first two sections would be the following names. Please note that this is in no particular order:

Aberg, Henley, Poston and Harman.

I will likely be in on one of Hatton/Fitzpatrick also

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Justin Rose's 40th-place finish at the Sentry might not look like much on paper, but we were a few mistakes (both from a rules perspective and shot standpoint) away from Rose posting a much more significant-finish to begin 2024.

Rose ranked inside the top 10 of my model this week for proximity between 125-200 yards, weighted scoring, weighted strokes gained total and historical performances on short Par 70 venues. The early ownership is trending after shooting a 61 on Sunday to catapult himself up the leaderboard, but this feels like the epitome of good chalk (at what can only be translated as too cheap of a price). There is no reason Rose shouldn't have been $1,000+ more expensive.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

I am in on the entire top of my $7,000 board.

Adam Svensson ($7,700) -Svensson has historically been an elite score on similar tracks and placed seventh in my model for expected scoring this week. I thought there was true win equity at his going rate in the outright market.

Akshay Bhatia ($7,800) -The putting remains a question mark, but Bhatia graded behind only Lucas Glover when combining projected proximity and weighted total driving to mimic Waialae.

Lucas Glover ($7,700) -Similar to Bhatia, Glover will go as far as the putter. We saw him win back-to-back events in 2023 when the putter got hot. We have also seen him struggle the past few months as it has gone cold. I will bet on the ball-striking here for a golfer with a high ceiling and low floor.

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

We will dive into this group later in the week!

 

Favorite Player In Each Range:

$10,000+ -Ludvig Aberg ($10,500)

$9,000s - Brian Harman ($9,900)

$8,000s - Justin Rose ($8,200)

$7,000s - Tie Between Svensson/Glover/Bhatia

$6,000s - K.H. Lee ($6,900)

 

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt

— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.

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