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If you made it to Week 15 Thursday Night Football still caring about your fantasy football teams, congratulations! However, if you made it to Thursday Night Football absolutely relying on some of the players in this game, it may be time to pump the brakes. What better way for bowl season to kick off than with the Easton Stick and Aidan O'Connell Bowl, and just like the real bowls, this one will be missing some of its biggest stars.
But what do I know? I'm the guy who told you the only starters in last week's Thursday Night Football game were the two team defenses and that one turned into an offensive explosion. The main question tonight will be whether we can rely on the skill position players with both teams down to (largely ineffective) backup quarterbacks.
I will be bringing you Thursday Night Football analysis all year long, focusing on who to definitely start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this 15th Thursday Night Football matchup of the 2023 season.
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Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders - 8:15 PM ET
Be sure to also check out our Chargers vs. Raiders NFL Actives/Inactives Report for Thursday Night Football. Notable injuries:
- Justin Herbert (QB, LAC) - Finger - OUT
- Keenan Allen (WR, LAC) -Heel - OUT
- Donald Parham Jr. (TE, LAC) - Shoulder - OUT
- Josh Jacobs (RB, LV) - Quad - OUT
- Davante Adams (WR, LV) - Illness - Questionable - ACTIVE
Chargers at Raiders Matchup Breakdown
Easton Stick versus Aidan O'Connell. Admit it, you didn't know either of these names three months ago, and now they are the first game in fantasy football playoff weeks with multiple high-level fantasy assets at stake. What do we expect from each of these teams and can we trust anyone from a fantasy perspective? Let's break each team down to try and predict some tendencies.
For the Chargers, not much changed after Herbert left with a finger injury in Week 14. Stick played 54% of the snaps, and the Chargers still threw at a rate of 71.6% in their game (second-highest in Week 14). Easton Stick had 179 passing yards with no scores or interceptions in basically one half of playing time, so that's a good sign for the Chargers' receivers. Quentin Johnston, Josh Palmer (back from injury), and Gerald Everett should still get plenty of work for a team that throws 61.5% of the time this season. Austin Ekeler will still be heavily involved as well against a Raiders defense that ranks 23rd in yards per rush attempt allowed.
For the Raiders, Aidan O'Connell has been simply abysmal in every game except against Kansas City. O'Connell has a 3:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last five games and the Raiders have scored 20 points or less in three of those five games. The Chargers are 28th in the league in passing yards allowed per attempt, but that just means you need to put the ball in O'Connell's hands more often to risk that success. Since Josh Jacobs will miss this game, that might have to be the Raiders' strategy.
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
With Keenan Allen out, the Chargers almost have no choice but to go all-in on Austin Ekeler despite his recent struggles. It's possible the Chargers are just going full-on tank in this game, but Ekeler was back to 73% of snaps last week after an odd 57% week. The Raiders rank 25th in the league at 127.4 rushing yards allowed per game this season and allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game.
Alexander Mattison and Ty Chandler just combined for over 100 yards rushing against this team in a horrific game, so if Ekeler can't get it done in this one? Yikes.
Austin Ekeler (+150) is the most bet player to score a touchdown on Thursday Night Football at @BetMGM.
Ekeler has scored 1 touchdown in the last 4 games. pic.twitter.com/9jkdAzhsXG
— John Ewing (@johnewing) December 14, 2023
Davante Adams (WR, LV)
It may not seem like it lately, but Davante Adams is still fourth in the NFL in target share this year (31.6%). The problem, however, is the targets are generally horrible from O'Connell. Despite having the best route participation of any receiver in the league, he is just 18th in receiving yards and 20th in fantasy points per game.
The issue, of course, is his 44th-ranked accuracy rating when targeted. Adams gets a roster lock designation in lineups this week because no one player may see more targets, but we just have to hope he can find the end zone for the first time since Week 11.
Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Josh Palmer (WR, LAC)
Finally back from extended time missed due to injury, Joshua Palmer is going to immediately be thrust into WR1 status on this team with Allen and Mike Williams out. He certainly will have some usage, but does he have any rapport with Stick? I am leaning towards starting him as a WR3 this week because of the potential volume. We can look at his five catches for 133 yards in the game before he was hurt as proof that he can be a week-winner.
Gerald Everett (TE, LAC)
Gerald Everett was removed from the injury report on Wednesday and is good to go for Thursday night. In PPR formats, Everett has been about as reliable as you can hope for over the last three weeks, never scoring fewer than 8.4 points. He should soak up a ton of the Keenan Allen middle-of-the-field targets on Thursday and is a top-10 option at the position with the star receiver -- as well as fellow Chargers TE Donald Parham Jr. -- out.
Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC)
Quentin Johnston is now 83rd among all wide receivers in fantasy points heading into Week 15. That means if all 32 teams deploy three wide receivers (96 total), only 13 of them are worse than Johnston this season. Johnston ranks 92nd at the position in yards per route run, but the Chargers have no choice but to trust him. Do we? If there is ever a week where Johnston is going to deliver, it's this one. He immediately jumps to WR2 and should get plenty of deep targets in this game.
#Chargers WR Quentin Johnston led the team with a career-high 91 receiving yards in Week 14.
Can the TCU product build on that success after a disappointing start to his rookie season? 👀#BoltUp | #NFL
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 14, 2023
Zamir White (RB, LV)
UPDATE: Josh Jacobs has officially been ruled out, making Zamir White a viable RB2/FLEX option this week.
If, AND ONLY IF, Josh Jacobs does not play, then we can fire up Zamir White as a flex play or high-risk, high-reward RB2 against a Chargers team that has allowed over 150 rushing yards per game over their last three and the second-most receptions to the position this entire season.
Jakobi Meyers (WR, LV)
Jakobi Meyers, who has just been Davante Adams Lite in five of the last six weeks, has really come back down to earth with O'Connell under center. He is still getting targets (21.3% over the last three weeks), but he has more than 49 yards once since Week 7. It's the O'Connell effect. I like Meyers as a WR3 because of lack of options on this team, but he doesn't possess the upside of earlier in the season.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Easton Stick (QB, LAC)
I can see starting Stick if you are desperate in a 2QB league or Superflex league where you no longer have Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, or Joshua Dobbs. But in a standard league with all teams available to us, he is outside my top-12 as a first-time starter, on the road as a fifth-round 2019 rookie, and with just one career pass attempt prior to Week 14. He has some of the big weapons around him, but until we see it, he doesn't have the talent.
Jalen Guyton (WR, LAC)
What can we really say about Jalen Guyton? He has one catch in each of the last three weeks. But with Allen out, can that number significantly increase? He still looks to be playing WR3 behind Johnston and Palmer, and Everett and Ekeler are also ahead of him in the pecking order. I don't trust him in this spot with a brand new quarterback under center.
Aidan O'Connell (QB, LV)
In his six games, Aidan O'Connell has finished better than QB21 just one time. That was Week 12 when he was QB17, so unless you are in an 18-team league, don't bother.
Despite Raiders’ HC Antonio Pierce being noncommittal about which QB would start Thursday night vs. the Chargers, rookie QB Aidan O’Connell is expected to remain the starter for this week’s game, per source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 13, 2023
Hunter Renfrow (WR, LV)
Hunter Renfrow has at least played more than 40% of the snaps for the last four games. That's the extent of the good news. In those four games, he has a total of 13 catches for 131 yards. The next touchdown Renfrow scores this year will be his first of the season.
Michael Mayer (TE, LV)
The Chargers allow just 7.4 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends and Michael Mayer has finished inside the top 20 tight ends just three times this year (inside the top 15 just twice). No thanks.
Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks
Current Spread: LV -3, Total: 34.5
When Justin Herbert and Keenen Allen were ruled out officially for this game, it changed the entire complexion of the matchup and it swung the line. Los Angeles was favored by almost a field goal, and now Las Vegas is favored by three points. I know Easton Stick is no Justin Herbert, but have the Chargers' skill position players gotten demonstrably worse?
Early Thursday Night Football betting at @BetMGM@Raiders open -3, no movement
▪️ 58% of bets, 22% of money on RaidersTotal open 34.5, no movement
▪️ 74% of bets, 75% of money on Under@chargers open +125, now +135
▪️ 62% of bets, 54% of money on Chargers— John Ewing (@johnewing) December 14, 2023
I will take the Chargers' offensive philosophy over whatever caused Las Vegas to score zero points against Minnesota 100 times out of 100, especially if Josh Jacobs is out or limited. With a pass-happy approach and a heavy dose of Austin Ekeler coming to Sin City, I like the Chargers to cover here and likely pay out on the moneyline as well.
Picks: LAC +3, Under
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