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RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on December 9, 2023.
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We’ve been blessed by the NHL with a great 9-game slate tonight. There are so many teams in great spots, but so few of them are cost-prohibitive. That’s a recipe for evenly spread out ownership, where analysis of the slate will win the day over forcing a team based on who everyone else is playing. Tonight’s key stacks are spread throughout the slate, so you don’t have to worry too much about finding minutes if you want a late-night hammer. The Hurricanes and Canucks should provide enough offense that you can get exposure and have some action into the wee hours of the morning.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options; four of which cost $20 or less to enter and have a top prize of $1,000 or more, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $10,000. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $2,000 first prize and a $33 entry, 71-person GPP with $500 for first place. There is a lot of money out there for big spenders and casual players alike. Let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. My goal is to help you narrow down your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Los Angeles Kings (LAK1 - Anze Kopitar, Quinton Byfield, Adrian Kempe)
The top line for the Kings came through for us in a big way, and tonight they find themselves right back on our Top Stacks list with a strong road matchup against the New York Islanders. New York continues to be a team we want to stack against, as their expected data shows that they continue to be due for negative defensive regression. New York has allowed just shy of three goals per 60 minutes at home in five-on-five, but they should be slightly closer to that three-goal number according to advanced data.
Meanwhile, the Kings have scored nearly four goals per game in similar situations on the road, and even with regression, they are expected to score over three goals. Their expected goals per 60 minutes is the second largest number on the slate. As good as they are at home, the top line for the Kings is even better on the road, averaging seven and a half more DraftKings points away from home this year. Quinton Byfield is playing his best hockey of the season, with multi-goal efforts in two of his last three games. Despite this, he’s still only priced at $4,600, making him one of the better value options on the slate. You can add in Drew Doughty on defense to bring this to a four-man stack. Doughty is on fire right now, scoring over 14 DraftKings points in each of his last three games. Even if the Kings are a popular stack tonight, going with the full line plus Doughty will help differentiate you from the rest of the field.
Detroit Red Wings (DET1 - Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, Robby Fabbri)
Based on expected goals allowed per 60 minutes, the Wings have the best matchup on the slate. Ottawa has allowed a robust 2.83 goals per 60 minutes on the road this year, but expected data says they should have allowed 3.29 goals per 60 minutes. In a nutshell, this means that as bad as Ottawa has been defensively, they could be much worse. That’s great news for Detroit, and especially their top line. Larkin, Raymond, and Fabbri will get the best defensive matchup for the Red Wings, and they just happen to be the hottest line on the team.
Fabbri has been particularly scorching, with multi-point efforts in four of his last five games. Dylan Larkin has been playing great as well, with double-digit fantasy points in six straight games. Lucas Raymond hasn’t been too shabby either, with double-digit DraftKings points in three of his last four games. A hot line plus a bad defense equals a stack we want to load up on tonight.
DYLAN LARKIN GIVES THE WINGS THE LEAD 🔥
6 GOALS IN 6 GAMES FOR THE CAPTAIN pic.twitter.com/Xpq4EhpTZb
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) December 8, 2023
Vancouver Canucks (VAN2 - Nils Hoglander, Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller)
There was a lot of competition for the third team on the stacks list today, but the Canucks get the coveted spot for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, they are playing well at the moment. J.T. Miller has twelve points over his last two games, including three multi-point efforts. Brock Boeser continues to provide a double-digit floor of points, and Nils Hoglander back-to-back games of ten or more fantasy points. Hoglander is the second reason that this stack is so appealing, as he’s priced at just $3,000. Having that inexpensive third member of a stack makes Vancouver more affordable than some other popular stacks.
Carolina is allowing over two and a half goals per 60 minutes on the road this year, and they’ve surrendered nearly thirteen high-danger shots per game. Antti Raanta isn’t playing well at all, with a save percentage under 95% on unblocked shots in five-on-five play.
DYLAN LARKIN GIVES THE WINGS THE LEAD 🔥
6 GOALS IN 6 GAMES FOR THE CAPTAIN pic.twitter.com/Xpq4EhpTZb
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) December 8, 2023
Others in consideration: NYR2, WSH1, TOR2
Top Value Stack of the Night
St. Louis Blues (STL2 - Jordan Kyrou, Kevin Hayes, Brayden Schenn)
The Blues are not a team that I generally look to stack, but the matchup tonight is just too good to ignore. The Blackhawks 14.47 high-danger chances allowed per game is the second-highest number of any team on the slate. Their expected goals allowed per 60 minutes at home is 3.1, which is nearly three-quarters of a goal per game fewer than what they’ve allowed over their last ten games. Petr Mrazek is currently playing well, but his overall data doesn’t indicate him as a goalie we should be avoiding.
The Blackhawks defensive pairing of Jones/Korchinski is the most generous duo on the team, and this is the line that should get the most ice time facing them. There are several value stacks you can use tonight if you don’t feel comfortable with the upside that the Blues have shown, but if you trust the data then getting some exposure here definitely makes a lot of sense.
Others in consideration: CHC3, MTL3, NSH2, BUF2, BUF3, STL3, CAR2
Top Goalies to Target
Andrei Vasilevskiy (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Vasilevskiy started his comeback poorly with three games of three or more goals allowed in his first four starts. He’s since regained his form with back-to-back games of fewer than two goals allowed. He’s got a strong matchup tonight against a Kraken team that has struggled to score goals at home over their last ten games. They’ve scored only 2.12 goals per 60 minutes, which is awful, yet advanced data says that they should have scored even less. This is a great “get right” spot for Vasi. His price of $8,000 doesn’t make him a screaming value, but it’s affordable enough that he can be used in both cash and GPP lineups.
Others in consideration (GPP): Alexandar Georgiev, Alex Lyon, Cayden Primeau
Others in consideration (Cash): Cam Talbot, Thatcher Demko
