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Jarod Rupp looks at recent MLB trades involving players such as Jarred Kelenic, Alex Verdugo, Michael King, and Tyler O'Neill to see what impact they'll have on the 2024 fantasy baseball season.
Since the MLB's Winter Meetings kicked off this past Monday, we've seen a handful of deals take place. To this point, the biggest blockbuster saw Juan Soto headed to the Bronx, with more deals yet to come.
While maybe not as splashy as the Soto deal, a few other notable players have moved to new scenery, including Jarred Kelenic, Alex Verdugo, Michael King, and Tyler O'Neill.
If you're looking for the impact of Juan Soto's arrival in New York, check out this article that details the players involved and how it may affect Soto's fantasy draft stock.
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Jarred Kelenic Trade Details
Braves Acquire: OF Jarred Kelenic, LHP Marco Gonzales, 1B Evan White
For Jarred Kelenic, this is a chance to have a fresh start with a new team after not living up to high expectations in Seattle. The Braves are already loaded with talent and there should be a bit less pressure to perform, especially since the Braves didn't give away much in order to get him.
For the Braves, they needed a left fielder after they declined the club option for veteran Eddie Rosario, and Kelenic presents an opportunity to replace Rosario with a much younger player who had virtually the same stats last season but has much more potential upside:
Marco Gonzales has already been traded to the Pirates for cash and a player to be named later, while Evan White has already been optioned to Triple-A by the Braves only to be subsequently dealt to the Angels on Friday for David Fletcher and Max Stassi.
Mariners Acquire: RHP Jackson Kowar, RHP Cole Phillips
Jackson Kowar was drafted 33rd overall in 2018; however, he has not been particularly effective in his limited big-league action. He'll come out of the bullpen for the Mariners.
Cole Phillips was drafted in the second round in 2022 and is still only 20 years old, but hasn't made his professional debut yet as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. He slides in as the Mariners' #15 prospect, according to MLB.com.
Jarred Kelenic's Fantasy Baseball Impact
Kelenic finally looked poised to live up to expectations in 2023, putting together a strong spring training that saw him hit .353 in 51 ABs, which included two doubles, a triple, four HR, 10 RBI, and three stolen bases. The momentum carried into the first month of 2023 where he hit .308 through the first 26 games, including seven doubles, seven HR, 14 RBI, 14 R, and 5 SB.
The shine slowly wore off though, as he hit .250 in May (three HR) and .173 in June (one HR), culminating with a kicked water cooler and broken foot on July 20 that put him on the IL until finally returning to the lineup in mid-September. He didn't hit a single HR in his final 157 ABs.
As shown in the table earlier, Kelenic had a somewhat higher than average wRC+ of 108 in 2023 and had an above-average BB% of 9.9%. It is the strikeout that plagues him. He owned a 31.7% K rate in 2023, which is well above league average. His Barrel% in 2023 was the exact same as Rosario's, but his hard-hit% was a full 10% better than Rosario's (35.1% vs 45.5%). So, if the Braves can work with him to get his K% down a bit, meaning he's making more contact, then his power numbers should rise as well.
FanGraphs currently has him projected for 17 HR and 12 SB, but there's easy 20 HR/20 SB potential there. He's currently going late in drafts or not being drafted at all -- after the 200th pick -- but if he's able to win the starting job in LF for himself (former infielder Vaughn Grissom is getting winter reps in LF), then he would comfortably outproduce his ADP (also assuming he doesn't treat any more water coolers like a placekicker treats a football).
Alex Verdugo Trade Details
Yankees Acquire: OF Alex Verdugo
Verdugo will take over patrol of left field for the Yankees, with recent acquisition Juan Soto taking over duties in right, and Aaron Judge manning the middle. Aging star Giancarlo Stanton will likely serve as the regular DH.
Red Sox Acquire: RHP Richard Fitts, RHP Greg Weissert, RHP Nicholas Judice
Fitts is a former 2021 sixth-round pick that has put up high K numbers in the minors over the last two seasons, and last season went 11-5 in Double-A with a 3.48 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He struck out 163 in 152.2 IP.
Weissert was selected in the 18th round back in 2016 and toiled in the minors until his MLB debut in 2022. He's made 29 appearances over the last two seasons and simply provides Boston with relief depth.
Judice is a 6'8" righty who was drafted in the eighth round of the 2023 draft but has yet to make his professional debut.
Alex Verdugo's Fantasy Baseball Impact
With the Yankees in need of offensive help and a steady presence in the outfield, they acquired Verdugo from the Red Sox and he will slot into the left fielder role. Verdugo is another left-handed bat in a lineup that was righty-heavy in 2023. While he's not the superstar that Juan Soto is, he's been a serviceable hitter in the bigs, although 2023 marked the fourth consecutive season of a decline in batting average (.308 in '20, .289 in '21, .280 in '22, .264 in '23) despite entering his prime years (he's currently age 27).
Initially, the trade may not have been much of a needle-mover for his counting stats, but now that Juan Soto is in pinstripes, the Yankee lineup looks quite a bit more potent. He tends to spread the ball to all fields, per BaseballSavant.com, so it remains to be seen whether the "short porch" in right at Yankee Stadium provides him any type of boost in power numbers.
He crossed home plate 81 times in 2023, but knocked in a meager 54 runs. The change of scenery likely doesn't increase that run total; however, the RBI total stands to tick up if Soto, Judge, and others can hold up their end of the bargain by staying healthy and getting on base more frequently than the Yankees of 2023 did.
While Verdugo goes mostly undrafted in early 2024 drafts, he's certainly a Watch List candidate. If the Yankees add yet another hitter with good OBP numbers, Verdugo may very well find himself in an exceedingly fantasy-friendly environment.
Michael King's Fantasy Baseball Impact
As mentioned in the Juan Soto article, King was one of four right-handed pitchers shipped off to San Diego in exchange for Soto. Of the four, King profiles as the one with the highest ceiling and most likely to crack the Padres' rotation in 2024. As of now, King is projected to be the third man up in the Padres rotation, just behind 2022 All-Star Joe Musgrove and five-time All-Star veteran, Yu Darvish.
In the nine games King pitched as a starter in 2023, he had a 2.23 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 11.38 K/9, and a high-end K-BB% of 25.8%. Despite sending Soto off to New York, the Padres still have some good bats in their lineup (Tatis, Bogaerts, Machado, Kim) that should provide King with runs and ample opportunities to win games.
Being considered the "centerpiece" of a trade for a future likely-to-be Hall of Famer says something. It tells you what you need to know about what teams think of King's talent, and as the 40th pitcher coming off early 2024 draft boards, King looks like he could be a sneaky value for managers in 2024. The switch to "pitcher-friendly" Petco Park further solidifies his case.
Tyler O'Neill Trade Details
Red Sox Acquire: OF Tyler O'Neill
O'Neill was drafted back in 2013 in the third round of the MLB Draft by the Seattle Mariners. He'll bring two Gold Gloves with him to Boston, and has the capability to put up offensive numbers -- he finished eighth in MVP voting in 2021.
Cardinals Acquire: RHP Nick Robertson, RHP Victor Santos
Robertson is a 6'6", 265 lb. reliever who made his debut in 2023. He appeared in 18 games and threw a total of 22.1 IP, allowing 15 ER (6.04 ERA) on 30 H while walking nine (1.75 WHIP) and striking out 26.
Victor Santos has yet to make his major league debut. He started 25 games across two levels of the minors last season, going 10-12 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.
Tyler O'Neill's Fantasy Baseball Impact
O'Neill combines both power and speed into his 5'11" frame. In his 2021 season, he hit 34 HR and stole 15 bases in 138 games. Playing all (or most) of a 162-game season has been a challenge for him though. He played in 96 games in 2022 and 72 games in 2023 as a result of various ailments. He's still just 28 years old, so hopefully he's got some fully healthy seasons in front of him.
For his career, he pulls the ball a bit more than league average and as a righty, he should be able to smack balls off of or over the Green Monster. He does have a little history in Fenway, going 6-for-12 back in 2022 with a double and one home run.
His 2021 season where he posted an OPS+ of 148 shows what kind of ceiling is there, but with healthier and more reliable options in fantasy drafts, O'Neill isn't being selected. As with Verdugo above, he's certainly worthy of being a Watch List candidate. With a hot spring training, he could creep up draft boards.
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