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Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 15 of 2025. His WRs to upgrade based on cornerback matchups data.
Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 15 of the 2025 fantasy football season. The fantasy football playoffs are here, with a large sample of the offensive and defensive advanced metrics. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. We're using a similar data-driven process to quantify the offensive and defensive matchups based on underlying metrics.
The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
The WR/CB Matchup Chart is back again for 2025! You can find it below! We'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.
We'll have a weekly matchup score, calculated by adjusting the scores by subtracting the defensive number from the offensive one. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way. With more data from the 2025 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
We're at a point in the season where we can understand a player's role and usage based on the underlying metrics, which should inform how to project players moving forward. Players can underperform and outperform in a given matchup based on luck and skill factors. There are multiple layers to consider in these matchups, especially since team defenses tend to shift their coverages based on the opposing offenses.
How to Use The WR/CB Chart
One way to use this chart is to identify weaker or tougher projected matchups in the given week. Another purpose involves identifying which team-level matchups to target. For instance, if multiple receivers have a positive or green matchup score on the same team, that indicates the opposing secondary could be a favorable matchup.
The flip side is also true. Finally, when a receiver has a positive or negative matchup score, it shouldn’t be used as a start or sit tool. However, it’s more helpful to utilize the matchup score to adjust expectations for that wide receiver. We also know there can be a wide range of outcomes where a receiver thrives or posts a dud, regardless of the matchup and projected game script.
Key Terms and Abbreviations
- TPRR = targets per route run
- YPRR = yards per route run
- FPRR = fantasy points per route run
WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical
Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 15 sorted alphabetically. There are no teams on bye in Week 15. We also have players marked differently to indicate a new (red shaded), injured player (red text), and slot coverage (bold text) to monitor. I also noted the magenta colored players as ones that the teams list as safeties, but they tend to cover receivers in the slot.
We added additional team-level metrics to the formula to account for team context. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers indicate a favorable matchup (or the defender allows a high rate on the given metric).
The visual below shows offenses by the Arizona Cardinals and the Dallas Cowboys.
The visual below shows offenses from the Denver Broncos to the Los Angeles Chargers.
The visual below shows offenses from the Las Vegas Raiders to the Seattle Seahawks.
The visual below shows offenses from the San Francisco 49ers to the Washington Commanders.
Best Projected Week 15 WR/CB Matchups
Worst Projected Week 15 WR/CB Matchups
Week 15 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades
Wan'Dale Robinson vs. Noah Igbinoghene
Among the healthy pass catchers, Robinson leads the Giants in expected fantasy points per game (14.1), with a 30.9 percent first-read target share and 25 percent target rate. Robinson leads the team with a 1.90 yards per route run, not including Malik Nabers.
After being labeled a PPR scam, Robinson has seen his air yards per target reach a career high of 8.5 yards, up from 4.7 in 2024 and 5.3 in 2023. That has led to additional upside for Robinson, evidenced by three games over 20 fantasy points in 2025 (23 percent), with zero in 2022 to 2024, unless we rounded up to one (19.9) in Week 17 of the 2023 season.
The Giants face a Commanders' defense that deploys man coverage at the 14th-highest rate while allowing the 15th-most fantasy points per dropback. Meanwhile, the Commanders' pass defense gave up the most fantasy points per dropback while using zone coverage (No. 22). Robinson typically thrives against zone coverage.
Robinson leads the team with a 27 percent target rate against zone and a 21 percent target per route rate against man coverage. Besides Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary, who surprisingly average a high yards per route run, Robinson (1.51) and Theo Johnson (1.84) lead the team in their per-route production against man coverage.
The Commanders have been one of the worst teams on deep passes, going for 20 or more yards downfield. They allow the fifth-highest fantasy points per dropback when using man. Meanwhile, the Commanders' pass defense allows the sixth-most fantasy points per dropback when targeted deep, while using zone coverage. That's where Robinson has been thriving in the Giants' offense, as seen below.
Robinson leads the Giants, with 4.75 yards per route run on deep passes while nearly matching Darius Slayton in first-read target share. Slayton garners a 29.4 percent first-read target share, with Robinson at 27.5 percent on deep targets. Robinson has been uber-efficient, with 4.2 yards per target over expected (YPTOE), potentially hinting at some regression, though his usage is optimal.
Robinson projects to face the Commanders' slot corner Noah Igbinoghene, who allows the 23rd-most fantasy points per route and the fourth-most yards per route run. The Commanders have the worst team coverage grade and allow the third-most fantasy points per game to receivers lined up in the slot. Robinson's usage is more like a borderline WR1 and high-end WR2.
Jauan Jennings vs. Darrell Baker Jr.
The 49ers will come out of their bye week facing one of the friendlier matchups. Since Brock Purdy returned in Week 11, Jennings has the second-highest target share (24 percent) behind George Kittle and ahead of Christian McCaffrey (21 percent). The only other 49ers' pass catcher playing on over 50 percent of the snaps was Ricky Pearsall, who has an 11 percent target share in Weeks 11-13.
Throughout the season, Jennings leads the team in first-read target share, with Pearsall (21.6 percent) and Kittle (21.1 percent) close behind. Jennings and Pearsall have similar usage based on the expected fantasy points per game. However, the gap has widened as mentioned, especially beyond their target shares in Weeks 11-13, as seen below.
Jennings has a near-elite 32.7 percent first-read target share, with 1.81 yards per route run in Weeks 11-13. Kittle trails Jennings in first-read target share (26.5 percent), yet leads the team in yards per route run. The recent data with Purdy healthy show the 49ers' offense consolidating around Jennings, Kittle, and McCaffrey.
The 49ers face the Titans, who allow the 10th-most fantasy points per dropback against man coverage (No. 21). Opposing offenses have shredded the Titans' zone defense (No. 15) by allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback. Jennings earns the highest target rate (29 percent) against man coverage. However, the production in yards per route run hasn't aligned.
Kittle garners the second-highest target rate (25 percent) against man coverage and produces the second-most yards per route run (2.42). He also earned a high target rate (20 percent) while averaging 1.99 yards per route run versus zone coverage. Even when the Titans deploy two-high looks (No. 7), they're giving up the second-most fantasy points per dropback, tying them with the Cowboys.
Typically, two-high looks favor the tight ends and running backs, limiting explosive plays. Jennings leads the 49ers with a 24.5 percent first-read target share, with Pearsall (19.2 percent) and Kittle (16.4 percent) trailing him against two-high coverages, as seen below. While those numbers don't pop off the page, we're expecting Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers' offense to attack a weak Titans' defense.
The Titans have been awful on deep passes, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback while using man coverage (No. 13). Meanwhile, the Titans' pass defense gives up the third-most fantasy points per dropback when using zone (No. 19). Jennings is the only 49ers' pass catcher with 25 or more routes in deep passes, translating to a 35 percent target rate, 2.77 yards per route run, and a 34.6 percent first-read target share.
The Titans' pass defense has been favorable toward outside receivers, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game. Jennings projects to face Darrell Baker Jr., who allows the 15th-most fantasy points per route run and the 16th-highest yards per route run. When the receiver's usage plus the favorable matchup align, it increases the upside.
The one concern involves the game script, with the 49ers being 12.5-point favorites. That's the second-highest spread, beside the Colts-Seahawks game. There's a chance the Titans might put up points after Cam Ward posted top-12 performances against the Texans and Seahawks in Weeks 11 and 12. That would benefit the 49ers' offense if the Titans can put up some points.
Luther Burden III vs. Myles Harden
When the news of Rome Odunze broke, many were bumping up Burden a bit higher than expected. We've been monitoring the receiver usage weekly, and Burden already earned the slot role for the Bears. However, Burden has been deployed like Jayden Reed, with his route participation rate barely hitting 70 percent in a given week, as seen below.
That's especially true since the Bears use the ninth-highest rate of 12-Personnel with Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland. Burden missed Week 9 with a concussion. However, after Week 9, Burden's route rate increased. We noticed that once Burden's route percentage was above 50 percent, he earned a high target rate at 23 percent or higher in four consecutive games.
It might be a two-game noisy sample, but Burden was targeted on the first read 25 percent of the time in Week 13 and 33.3 percent in Week 14. Olamide Zaccheaus ran the second-highest route percentage in Week 14 at 71.8 percent, yet he only earned a target on 11 percent of his routes. The other piece to consider involves the Bears as one of the most run-heavy teams during neutral scripts, as seen below.
For context, the Bears ranked 30th in neutral script pass rate (47 percent), ahead of the Dolphins (45 percent) and Jets (42 percent) in Weeks 9-14. That will limit the volume and mean the Bears' pass catchers need to be efficient via touchdowns or on a per-route basis.
They face a Browns' defense that deploys man coverage at the second-highest rate behind the Lions. However, they've been good at limiting fantasy points per dropback while using man coverage, ranking 21st. Furthermore, the Browns use single-high looks at the highest rate and allow the 26th-most fantasy points per dropback.
Burden has been more productive, with a team-high 2.58 yards per route run against zone coverage while earning a target on 26 percent of his routes. Though Burden hasn't earned a high target rate (14 percent), with 1.62 yards per route run, his Average Separation Score and Win Rate against man coverage hint at potentially better future outcomes. The data from Weeks 9-14 look similar to the season-long numbers.
When we filter by single-high looks, Burden garners a 24 percent target rate, 18.9 percent first-read target share, and 2.33 yards per route run in Weeks 9-14, as seen above. None of the Bears' pass catchers has a first-read target share above 25 percent against single-high looks. Besides Burden, Kmet (2.06) and Loveland (2.72) are the only other pass catchers with 2.00 yards per route run against single-high coverages.
The Browns rank 11th in team coverage grade and allow the 28th-most fantasy points per game to receivers who line up in the slot. Burden projects to face Myles Harden, the Browns' primary slot cornerback, who allows the seventh-most fantasy points per route and 32nd in yards per route run. In slot coverage, Harden allows the 36th-most yards per slot coverage snap and the 15th-highest passer rate allowed in the slot out of 62 qualified defensive backs.
Odunze has been labeled as week-to-week with the stress fracture in his foot. Burden has seen an uptick in usage, though it's still not a full-time role as the slot receiver playing on a run-heavy offense. Value Burden as a WR3/4 that should set career-bests against one of the better defenses.
Week 15 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Romeo Doubs vs. Pat Surtain II
There's a chance that Pat Surtain II covers Christian Watson, though he might have too much speed for Surtain. Based on the typical alignment, Surtain projects to face Doubs. Doubs hasn't been an efficient producer, especially with Watson and Tucker Kraft stealing the splash plays.
Doubs, Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks all have target rates between 22 and 23 percent. Meanwhile, Watson leads the team in yards per route run among their top pass catchers, running a route over 50 percent of the time. It's probably best to examine the Packers' pass catchers since Week 8 when Watson returned, as seen below.
The Packers have Doubs and Watson running routes over 70 percent of the time in Weeks 8-14. Doubs and Watson have an identical 22 percent target rate, and similar first-read target shares for Doubs (20.5 percent) and Watson (23.6 percent). Doubs has been struggling with efficiency, averaging 1.40 yards per route run and -2.1 YPTOE.
The Packers face a Broncos' defense that uses man coverage at the fourth-highest rate while allowing the fewest fantasy points per dropback. They allow the 21st-most fantasy points per dropback on zone coverage (No. 28). The Broncos trust their defensive backs to play man coverage and use Cover 1 at the sixth-highest rate.
Reed produced 2.63 yards per route run with Watson's 2.83, leading the team among the healthy options when facing man coverage. Meanwhile, Wicks boasts 2.22 yards per route run against man coverage. Doubs tends to struggle against man coverage, producing 1.07 yards per route run, yet earning a target on 24 percent of his routes.
When filtering by Cover 1, Watson destroys opposing defenses, as seen above. That's evident by Watson's 27.5 percent first-read target share, 28 percent target rate, and 2.76 yards per route run. Doubs struggles, with 0.47 yards per route run, yet sees a target on 22 percent of his routes against Cover 1.
Doubs projects to face Surtain, allowing the eighth-lowest fantasy points per route run and 20th-lowest yards per route run. When receivers line up out wide, the Broncos' defense allows the 21st-most fantasy points per game. Like the Bears, the Packers have been more run-heavy in neutral scripts, ranking 22nd in pass rate since Week 9.
Trust the more efficient Packers' pass catchers like Watson and Reed instead of Doubs in Week 15.
Courtland Sutton vs. Carrington Valentine
Sean Payton has taken us on a rollercoaster ride for the Broncos' offense, especially in the passing game. From Weeks 1-6, Sutton led the Broncos' receivers with 13.9 PPR/G with Troy Franklin at 9.7 and Marvin Mims Jr. at 7.5. From Weeks 7-11, Franklin took the lead, with 15.1 PPR/G, Sutton (10.5), Pat Bryant (7.2), and Mims (six) behind him.
Then in Weeks 13-14, Sutton leads the Broncos' receivers (14.7), doubling Bryant's 7.2, with Mims (5.7) and Franklin (4.1) being awful. Notably, Sutton's usage has fluctuated in 2025, with more lows than in 2024, given his expected fantasy points per game. Throughout the season, Sutton and Franklin have similar expected fantasy points per game and advanced stats across the board.
The Packers deploy zone coverage at the third-highest rate, behind the Raiders and Panthers. Green Bay ranks middle of the pack, with 17th-highest fantasy points per dropback when using zone coverage. Specifically, the Packers like using two-high looks at the 11th-highest rate while allowing the 26th-most fantasy points per dropback.
Sutton boasts a 1.66 yards per route run, with Franklin (1.58) and Bryant (1.59) close behind against zone coverage. Interestingly, RJ Harvey sneakily leads the team with 1.78 yards per route run while being targeted on 29 percent of his routes versus zone coverage. Sutton tends to be better against man coverage, so there's a good chance the Packers' defense slows him down.
The visual above shows the Packers' pass catchers against two-high looks since Week 8. Evan Engram leads the team with a 21.8 percent first-read target share. Meanwhile, Sutton (16.4 percent), Bryant (18.2 percent), and Franklin (14.5 percent) have been above 10 percent in first-read target share.
Bryant has been the most efficient, producing 1.99 yards per route run against two-high looks. Unfortunately, Sutton averages under one yard per route (0.92) versus two-high coverages. Add in the context that the Broncos face the third-best defense in team coverage grade, and it's worrisome for Sutton heading into Week 15.
Sutton projects to face Carrington Valentine, allowing the 40th-fewest fantasy points per route and the 21st-lowest yards per route. However, the Packers' defense has been giving up the 10th-most fantasy points per game to outside receivers.
The Broncos have been passing at the third-highest rate in neutral scripts since Week 9, though they've ranked 18th in EPA per dropback and 16th in passing success rate. With the volume and usage shifting back toward Sutton, he projects as a volume-based WR3 with WR2 upside, though the matchup makes him a slight downgrade.
Alec Pierce vs. Devon Witherspoon
With Daniel Jones suffering a season-ending Achilles injury, it's a massive downgrade to the Colts' offense, specifically in the passing game. Pierce has been leading the team with a 45.4 percent air yards share and 2.32 yards per route run. However, Pierce's usage and first-read target shares tend to align with Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs.
The Seahawks' defense utilizes zone coverage at the fifth-highest rate and allows the second-lowest fantasy points per dropback. They specifically deploy two-high looks at the eighth-highest rate while giving up the third-fewest fantasy points per dropback.
Pierce has been the most efficient pass catcher against zone coverage, generating 2.41 yards per route run, ahead of Tyler Warren (2.28) and Pittman (1.89). However, Pierce earns a target on 19 percent of his routes, ranking fourth on the Colts against zone coverage. Typically, we think about Pierce as the man coverage weapon, who tends to attack single-high coverages.
Against two-high looks, as seen above, Pittman earns the highest first-read target share at 28 percent. Meanwhile, Downs (20 percent) and Warren (21.7 percent) remain the only other Colts' pass catchers with a first-read target share above 20 percent against two-high coverages. Pierce hardly earns targets (13 percent) against two-high, though he tends to be efficient with 1.59 yards per route and 2.3 YPTOE.
Pierce faces a Seahawks' pass defense ranking fourth in team coverage grades. He projects to face Devon Witherspoon, who allows the 48th-fewest fantasy points per route and the 32nd-lowest yards per route run. The Seahawks are a massive favorite (13.5 points), leading the betting lines in Week 15. That could mean potential volume for Pierce and the Colts' pass catchers, with poor efficiency.
Be cautious when rolling out Pierce in Week 15, especially with multiple unfavorable factors.
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