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RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on November 11th, 2023.
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As the NHL season rolls on, we are going to be privy to more and more data. That data is going to help us unlock matchups that we want to target. Over the last week or so we’ve seen that data start to pay dividends. We have been on numerous low-owned three-man stacks with cumulative ownership of under 10% that have popped off for big games.
Oftentimes those stacks are premium players in overlooked spots, like Winnipeg on Tuesday night. Other times they are stacks with players that make you say, “Who?”, like we had with Boston’s second line on Thursday night. Tonight that data has led us to a good mix of well-known players and some stacks that came way, way, way out of leftfield. These are the most fun slates because we get to take some chances (the Kings' fourth line??) that are based on in-season data rather than just gut.
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. My goal is to help you narrow down your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Toronto Maple Leafs (TOR2 - John Tavares, William Nylander, Tyler Bertuzzi)
The Leafs' second line is arguably in the best spot of the night. They are at home against a Vancouver team that is continuing to play well above their head. The Canucks are good, but they’re not “third best record in the entire NHL” good. The defense is allowing a full goal per 60 minutes fewer on the road in five-on-five situations than the data suggests.
Thacher Demko is allowing 1.69 fewer goals per game and his save percentage is 27 points higher than advanced stats say it should be. This continues to be an unsustainable situation and one that we will continue to attack, especially on the road.
The second line of the Leafs should be matched up against the defensive pairing of Soucy/Myers. That duo has been very lucky so far, allowing far fewer goals per 60 minutes than expected. Meanwhile, the duo of William Nylander and John Tavares is averaging over 31 DraftKings points per game. They do most of their damage right in front of the net, and that will play into their favor as the Canucks allow the second most high-danger chances of any team on the slate.
New York Islanders (NYI1 - Matthew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Oliver Wahlstrom, Noah Dobson)
The team that allows the most high-danger chances on the slate, with over 15 per game, is the Washington Capitals. The Caps are also allowing over four goals per 60 minutes in road games this year, which is the highest number on the slate. The Islanders have averaged only about two and a quarter goals per 60 minutes at home, but that’s around half a goal worse than expected so some positive regression is headed their way. The Islanders' underperformance has dropped their prices far enough that they are an extreme value given their matchup.
They also have one of the highest-scoring defenders in fantasy in Noah Dobson. He man’s the point for the power play and is a must for any Islanders stack. He averages one point (goal or assist) and five SABS (shots and blocked shots) per game, a really high floor for a defender. This slate doesn’t have all that many expensive stacks that you’ll want to target tonight, so you can pair the Islanders with another mid-range stack and not have to worry too much about taking a “Stars and Scrubs” approach to lineup building.
Is Noah dobson the best player in the NHL? pic.twitter.com/Kh9FIVkrdX
— avi sauber (@SauberAvi) November 10, 2023
Carolina Hurricanes (CAR1 - Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, Martin Necas)
The Hurricanes are in the best spot of any road team on tonight’s slate. They are heading to Tampa Bay to face a Lightning team that is really struggling in goal. Jonas Johansson is allowing 0.31 goals per game more than expected, and teams are firing at will with over 33 shots on goal per game. The defense has actually played well at home, allowing over half a goal less per game than expected. Unfortunately for them, that just means some negative regression could be headed their way.
As for Carolina, they are looking to improve on the road, as they are scoring 0.29 fewer goals than expected. They are an aggressive unit, averaging over 34 shots on goal per game, and that aggressiveness will get them to their regression sooner. Sebastian Aho is starting to turn things around after a slow start as he’s riding a four-game point-scoring streak. The offense goes as he goes, and it won’t be long before Martin Necas and Seth Jarvis (both of whom already average about 10 DraftKings points per game) join in on the fun.
Others in consideration: EDM1, BUF2, CGY2
Top Value Stack of the Night
Boston Bruins (BOS3 - Danton Heinen, Matthew Poitras, Jake DeBrusk)
There are an inordinate amount of value stacks in great positions tonight, but none can quite match the talent of the Boston Bruins. Both Matthew Poitras and Jake DeBrusk have spent time on the top two lines, and Danton Heinen has been one of the better bottom-six skaters in the league for the last few years.
DeBrusk and Poitras have actually spent a lot of time together on the ice this year and they have a really high xGF/60 of 3.50. This is not your typical third line and they should be able to take advantage of the Montreal third defensive pairing of Xhekaj/Harris, who spend the majority of their ice time straight line matching with their opponent’s third line.
Others in consideration: NSH2, LAK4, PIT3
Top Goalies to Target
Cam Talbot (Los Angeles Kings)
Cam Talbot is playing out of his mind this year, but unlike some other goalies who are doing the same (*cough* Demko *cough), I actually buy this. Part of the reason for Talbot’s success is that the Kings' defense is playing great. They don’t allow high-danger chances, and that’s making the saves relatively easy for Talbot. He hasn’t allowed more than two goals in any game since October 28, a string of five straight starts. He’s also averaging almost 17 DraftKings points per game, scoring more than 14 points in 70% of his starts.
Normally I don’t like to use goalies who won’t get a shot at the save bonus, but Talbot is playing so well that he’s worth the pay-up. One more thing about him, you have to ignore his home/road splits at the moment. His home stats are awful, but his three home games were against Boston, Colorado, and Vegas. Philly is nowhere near the quality of those offenses.
Others in consideration (GPP): Thacher Demko, Jake Allen, Juuse Saros, Jordan Binnington
Others in consideration (Cash): Ilya Sorokin, Jeremy Swayman
