NFL Rookies to Watch in Week 9: Fantasy Football Dynasty and Redraft Leagues

November 4, 2023

NFL rookie outlooks for fantasy football Week 9 (2023). Hayden looks at promising fantasy rookies at QB, WR, and TE to identify potential sleepers and busts.

The 2023 rookie class has been finding a lot of success this season. One need not look any further than the NFC North last week for evidence. Vikings rookie receiver Jordan Addison caught seven passes for 82 yards and a score in a win versus the Packers. A pair of first-year Lions, RB Jahmyr Gibbs and TE Sam LaPorta, also excelled. Gibbs totaled 189 scrimmage yards in a Monday night victory over Las Vegas that also saw LaPorta make eight catches.

Perhaps the talk of the week though was Tennessee rookie QB Will Levis. Levis threw four touchdown passes in his first career start, and he followed that up with a respectable performance on Thursday night versus Pittsburgh. This is not the only recent development for rookie QBs. Aidan O'Connell will make his second NFL start for the Raiders this week, Minnesota's Jaren Hall is set to make his starting debut, and Clayton Tune may be Arizona's QB1 on Sunday.

Whether you're a redraft manager or a dynasty manager, being ahead of the curve with rookie players is vital to your team's success. For that reason, each week I will be breaking down which rookies you should be watching out for. This column will be split into two parts: one pertaining to players most relevant in redraft leagues, and the other for rookies particularly worth watching in dynasty formats.

NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Redraft Leagues

C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU)

The first passer to be looked at this week is Houston's C.J. Stroud. Stroud has won over many fans with his impressive play in the first half of the season. In his first five games, Stroud averaged 292.2 passing yards, threw no interceptions, and scored 20+ fantasy points three times. He currently ranks fourth among all QBs in yards per attempt, eighth in QBR, and fourth in deep ball completion percentage.

Stroud was less stellar in his past two outings, however. In Week 6, the former Buckeye tossed his first pick, completed just 48.1 percent of his passes, and, with 199 passing yards, failed to reach 200 yards for the first time. Last week he set a new career low with 140 passing yards, although he did score the first rushing touchdown of his NFL career. Rookie QBs often experience rough patches throughout the year, and it seems Stroud is encountering one at the moment.

The Texans face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. Fantasy managers will be hoping to regain trust in Stroud as a fantasy starter with a strong performance. The good news is that the Buccaneers have yielded the third-most passing yards per game to opposing QBs this year. Stroud should be able to break out of his brief slump this weekend, but if he is unable to, that would present a worrisome trend for his ROS outlook.

Demario Douglas (WR, NE)

Sixth-round rookie Demario Douglas had a costly Week 2 fumble that landed him in the doghouse, but he has come a long way since then. Last week, Douglas caught a season-high five of seven targets for 25 yards. The week before, he made four grabs on six targets for a season-high 54 yards. Douglas has also gotten touches in the ground game, including a 20-yard run in New England's 29-25 win over Buffalo in Week 7.

Douglas had a personal-best snap share last week at 78.8 percent, surpassing his mark of 61.7 percent the week prior. Additionally, 13 of his 30 targets have come in his past two games. New England's leading receiver Kendrick Bourne also suffered a season-ending ACL tear in the fourth quarter last Sunday. Bourne's 20.2-percent target share will now need to be distributed elsewhere, so Douglas's increased usage should be here to stay.

This Sunday will demonstrate how effectively Douglas can make use of this opportunity. With Bourne and DeVante Parker both injured, Douglas will be called upon to step up in their absences. He and the Patriots will be facing the Washington Commanders. The Commanders have allowed the most yards and touchdowns to wide receivers this season, so it could be a productive day for a typically feeble New England offense.

Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF)

While Dalton Kincaid was the first tight end off the board in the 2023 NFL Draft, it was Detroit's Sam LaPorta who stole the show among rookie TEs to start the season. Kincaid was still having his moments, including a five-catch, 43-yard showing in Week 2. Teammate and fellow tight end Dawson Knox was remaining too involved for Kincaid believers though. Knox has had more snaps than Kincaid in five of the six games they have played together, and Knox has just six fewer targets on the year.

In Week 7, Kincaid had his best game to that point, catching all eight of his targets for 75 yards. Before Week 8, Knox was placed on injured reserve with a wrist issue, paving the way for further Kincaid success. The rookie from Utah made five catches on seven targets for 65 yards and a touchdown last week with Knox out. He also set new season highs with an 83.8-percent snap share and an 85.7-percent route participation rate.

Because Knox is on IR, he will have to miss at least three more weeks of action. Kincaid is therefore set to have another great game this weekend versus Cincinnati. The Bengals are yielding the fourth-most receptions and yards to tight ends this year, further boosting Kincaid's outlook. He should be able to position himself to maintain his production even when Knox returns from injury. Watch Buffalo's game to see if he can.

NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues

Bryce Young (QB, CAR)

Bryce Young was the top pick in this year's draft, but he and the Panthers have been struggling. Carolina sits at just 1-6, and their offense is 25th in points per game with 18.1. Young's debut was a difficult one, as he passed for 146 yards, one TD, and two interceptions on 38 attempts. His next two games were also troubling; Young's best weekly finish in his first three starts was as the QB23.

The Alabama product has shown improvement in recent games, though. Young surpassed 20 fantasy points for the first time in Week 5, and his past three outings account for his three highest passing yardage totals of the year. Moreover, Young set a new season-best mark with 7.6 yards per attempt last week. Still, Young ranks just 35th in that category for the year, as well as 21st in QBR and 29th in accuracy rating.

The Indianapolis Colts will be in Charlotte this Sunday to take on Young and Carolina. Fantasy managers should keep an eye on Young to see if he can continue to progress; this will be his second game with OC Thomas Brown serving as play-caller. The Colts have surrendered the eighth-most passing yards per game to opposing QBs this year, but they have held both Trevor Lawrence and P.J. Walker in check in recent weeks.

Aidan O'Connell (QB, LV)

The Raiders crumbled on Monday Night Football last week, falling 26-14 to Detroit in a game that was not as close as the score indicated. Head coach Josh McDaniels, general manager Dave Ziegler, and offensive coordinator Mick Lombardi were all fired as a result. Moreover, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has been benched due to his poor play. Taking over at QB will be the fourth-round rookie out of Purdue, Aidan O'Connell.

O'Connell already started once in Week 4 against the Chargers with Garoppolo injured. He completed 24 of 39 passes for 238 yards and an interception, and he was sacked seven times. O'Connell also saw some action in Week 7, connecting on 10 of 13 throws for 75 yards, one score, and one pick. His 37.1 passing grade from PFF is certainly suboptimal, but he will now reportedly have the remainder of the season to gain experience and grow as a professional.

Throughout the draft process, O'Connell was lauded for his quick processing and great timing on short and intermediate routes. He is not mobile at all, though, owning just a 4.97-second 40-yard dash time, and his velocity and deep accuracy are areas of improvement. The Raiders will be playing against the Giants on Sunday, and O'Connell will show dynasty managers how they should value him for the future.

Jaren Hall (QB, MIN)

Like the Raiders, the Vikings will be turning to a rookie quarterback this weekend. Unlike the Raiders, Minnesota had little say in the matter; starter Kirk Cousins had his season end last week with an Achilles tear. Thus, Jaren Hall will be making his first career start on Sunday versus Atlanta. The Vikings traded for former Cardinals QB Joshua Dobbs this week, but Hall will be their man for at least this one game.

Hall, at 25 years old, is quite old for a rookie. The fifth-rounder from BYU had a number of other concerns in his profile too, including his accuracy issues and average arm strength. Nonetheless, Hall displayed quality decision-making and avoided turnovers in college. He is also a solid athlete, possessing a 75th-percentile agility score and 80th-percentile 40-yard dash time. Hall made some impressive plays on the move at BYU, including a Mahomesian flip to Puka Nacua.

In the preseason, Hall completed just 26 of 48 passes for 264 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He will need to show more efficiency to be a valuable dynasty asset. Thankfully, he will have Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborn, and T.J. Hockenson to help him out this week. If he remains in the lineup moving forward, superstar Justin Jefferson will be joining the others as well. Make sure to watch Hall's outing to ascertain his dynasty value.

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