RADIO
After one of the strongest weeks for the group, we collectively had one of the worst. keepingthelittlehumansalive was the only one that broke 40 points (42). GoCru was right at 40. Only nine more topped 35 points. This week looks a little better, but a week like last week can really shake your confidence.
50Centi is still leading the way with 225 points by just two points over kingrah23. Madcity Guru's gained one point on the top two last week to pull within five points of second place. HoneyBadgers sits four points behind that. ertlt rounds out the top five with 213 points with BKNoleGirl only two points behind that. 10 other entries are also over 200 points, so it's still pretty tight at the top.
Conference play is almost universal now, which usually makes Pick Em a lot more interesting. We have eight conference games involved in Pick Em again this week along with three matchups between ranked teams.
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College Football Pick Em Overview
This article will be for the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on Twitter. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week. Good luck out there. There are less gimmes in conference season.
(1) Iowa State over TCU
I usually work from the top down, but this week there are several toss-ups, so I'm trying to work from the bottom up. Does Hilton Magic transfer over to Jack Trice Stadium? Does it matter if it's not Brock Purdy leading the charge? It's the fans that make that place special, right? It's one of the favorite places I have attended an away game. Great atmosphere equals Iowa State win, right? These teams are a lot closer than people think. I give ISU a much better than 6% chance of winning this game, so I'll put a point on the upset.
(2) North Carolina State over Marshall
This one makes me nervous. The Pack defense is going to make the difference here. They can contain Rasheen Ali and I don't think Marshall can throw to win this. The Pack offense has been terrible, and the transfer of Jordan Houston won't help that. I'm relying on defense here.
(3) Texas over Oklahoma
I may be a fan, but I'm also a realist. This is the first time that both teams have entered the Red River Shootout undefeated since 201, a game that Oklahoma whipped up on Texas 55-14. Oklahoma is coming off their worst-ever loss in the series last year because we had a tight end at quarterback (among other reasons). Dillon Gabriel will get his first taste of this game after being injured against TCU last season.
Red River Shootout in points per drive (natl rank).
Offense
Oklahoma: 3.91 (7th)
Texas: 3.53 (10th)Defense
Oklahoma: 1.06 (9th)
Texas: 1.10 (11th)Both teams have been elite so far this season in efficiency.
via BCF.— CJ Vogel (@CJVogel_TFB) October 4, 2023
All of the numbers on this game make it look like it should be close, but I'm a realist. Oklahoma, while they have looked good, hasn't played anyone. Texas beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Even if the Tide are a bit "down" this year, that's still an impressive win.
Since 2017, the winner of the Red River Shootout has been the team wearing white 5/6 (0.833) times.#OUvsTEX pic.twitter.com/iSLdmfP1it
— Kyle Umlang (@kyleumlang) October 2, 2023
We are wearing white this year, but I still don't think it's enough. I'll still be cheering for Oklahoma, but I'm going to have this game lower than most of you just in case we win.
(4) Missouri over LSU
Mizzou’s defense has had its struggles, but the Tigers rank 23rd in early down efficiency.
Mizzou’s next opponent LSU ranks 116th in the same category. Brady Cook and Co. have thrived on early downs. https://t.co/9bKkcg30p7
— Nate Sanchez (@nate_sanch77) October 5, 2023
Brady Cook doesn't make mistakes. The LSU defense doesn't make stops. I don't have a ton of faith in the Missouri defense, especially against a talented player like Jaylen Daniels, so I'm keeping this low. This is a winnable game for Missouri in Columbia, which means they will likely get blown out.
Wait...no they won't. I've seen enough of the LSU defense to know this version of the Bayou Bengals is incapable of blowing anyone out (aside from Grambling). LSU is allowing a staggering 429.4 yards per game. Yikes!
(5) Iowa over Purdue
I saw enough from one half of Deacon Hill to believe that he is as good if not better than Cade McNamara. Purdue looked good last week, but this isn't your older brother's Illinois defense. They're a mess. Iowa's defense is the one thing that has remained constant for the last decade. The Hawkeye defense is going to be good. The offense on the other hand...
(6) Texas State over Louisiana
Just so you all know...it was Louisiana-Monroe that almost poached Appalachian State last week, not Louisiana. The Cajuns lost to an average-at-best Minnesota team. Ismail Mahdi is going to be a big problem for the Cajuns in this one.
Yards per carry leaders
Ismail Mahdi (Tx St) 9.76
MarShawn Lloyd (USC) 8.33
Henry Parrish Jr (Miami) 7.88
Bucky Irving (Ore) 7.86
Ray Davis (UK) 7.82
Jawhar Jordan (L'ville) 7.73
Peny Boone (Toledo) 7.57
Braelon Allen (WI) 7.13
Jaylen Wright (Tenn) 7.13
Audric Estime (ND) 7.07— Brendan Moore (@bmoorecfb) October 4, 2023
(7) Fresno State over Wyoming
This is where working from the bottom up gets you. I had no intention of having the game this high. Laramie is a tough place to play. Harrison Waylee is the perfect back for Wyoming's system. That said, Josh Allen isn't taking this field anytime soon and Andrew Peasley is nowhere near him in ability. The nation's second-longest winning streak feels safe.
(8) Alabama over Texas A&M
Max Johnson looked really good last week. So did Alabama. Not just the quarterback...the entire team. A&M's speed could be a problem in this one, but Alabama doesn't make the mistakes that Arkansas did. A&M will have a hard time winning this without forcing turnovers.
(9) Washington State over UCLA
Keep chugging that SoCal Kool-Aid. The media does it with USC as well. The Cougars are playing very well right now. Dante Moore is going to be good for UCLA, but much like Dorian Thompson-Robinson in his early years, it's a work in progress. UCLA would need to play practically a perfect game to win this. They don't have that in them just yet. Washington State's defensive line can control this game and the legend of Cameron Ward keeps growing.
(10) Notre Dame over Louisville
The Cardinals are frauds. They are going to get exposed by the Irish on both sides of the ball.
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