MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/31/2025)

August 31, 2025

Thunder Dan Palyo's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/31/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Christian Yelich, Aaron Judge, Rafael Devers, and Freddie Freeman.

Let's send August out with a bang, shall we? The last time I penned this piece, we went three for five on home run calls! It's my birthday, friends, and I plan to bring some good "birthday mojo" with me for these picks today. Who doesn't love a good birthday narrative anyway, right?

The strategy for targeting home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. In this article, I attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible. I try not to pick the obvious plays, especially when the plan is to use these plays in a round robin format. Hitting a couple of value home runs when we can provides significant upside in a round robin.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Sunday, August 31, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbooks and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/31/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Sunday, August 31:

• Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
• Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
• Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
• Rafael Devers, San Francisco Giants

Christian Yelich OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+475 DraftKings)

We get things going in the early afternoon games with one of last night's heroes in yet another improbable Milwaukee comeback win. Yelich smacked his 27th home run of the season off Toronto closer Jeff Hoffman as he and teammate Jackson Chourio went back-to-back in the ninth inning to give the Brewers a late lead.

Jackson Chourio to Christian Yelich 😤

The @Brewers go back-to-back and take the lead! pic.twitter.com/rQEfvPxt05

— MLB (@MLB) August 30, 2025

Yelich continues to show that he is still one of the more polished hitters in the league when healthy and is having a fantastic bounce-back season in 2025 after missing a bunch of games last year. He even went opposite field on the home run last night, something he did much more rarely earlier in his career.

Yelich is now hitting .283 and slugging .526 against RHP this season. He's hit 23 of those 27 home runs off righties and carries an impressive 13.1% barrel rate vs. RHP this season.

That's why I have to go back to him here against Max Scherzer, who, despite some decent results in 12 starts for the Jays this season, has looked very mortal when it comes to the amount of loud contact that he's allowing to opposing hitters. Scherzer is no longer the dominant pitcher he once was, and his splits to LHH this year are quite concerning.

Mad Max is whiffing lefties just 18% of the time, while allowing a .265 ISO, .485 SLG, and 14.7% Barrel%. He's allowed nine home runs to lefties in just 66 innings pitched. His fastball is getting hit harder than ever before, so he's had to rely more on his breaking pitches and offspeed stuff this year. Yelich matches up quite well against his arsenal and is the type of patient hitter who can work counts in his favor and then wait for his favorite pitches. I have a ton of respect for Scherzer, but I give Yelich the advantage in this matchup based on the 2025 iterations of both players.

Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+210 DraftKings)

So this is the first time I have bet on Judge in quite a while, but his odds are over +200 on DK today so I am going to go for it (since I am not breaking my rule of betting on HR props under +200).

Judge will face the veteran lefty Martin Perez, a crafty pitcher who has been able to rack up a 2.02 ERA and 0.95 WHIP through his first six starts in Chicago this season. But I am not buying it!

Perez has regression coming! His SIERA is 4.26, xERA is 4.52, and he's allowed a slate-high 12.9% barrel rate. All that means is that he's been very likely getting lucky with batted ball results (I mean, his BABIP is .217 compared to his career mark of .318).

Perez is simply not this good! He doesn't throw hard or feature any breaking balls with plus movement. What he does is throw strikes and nibble at the corners, forcing hitters to hit the pitches he wants them to. However, a pitcher who functions this way is constantly flirting with disaster, as their lack of movement or velocity means that a few poorly located pitches can end up getting hit a long way.

Perez has a massive 15.3% barrel rate and 44.4% HardHit% to righties this year. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge has crushed Perez's top three offerings (sinker, cutter, changeup) and has the type of power to hit any of those pitches out in any count. I like Judge (and also Paul Goldschmit a bit, though Giancarlo Stanton didn't profile quite as well) to go yard off the overachieving veteran Perez today.

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Freddie Freeman OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+370 DraftKings)

We have to go after Brandon Pfaadt today in Dodger Stadium! We have temperatures in the low-90s and some 7-8 mph winds blowing out to center field. Those conditions are going to add batted balls in the air today and Pfaadt has already had a major issue with homers this season (1.39 HR/9).

Pfaadt brings a gross 5.76 xERA into this matchup and lasted only two and two-thirds innings in his last start against Milwaukee, allowing six runs on eight hits. He has been getting smacked around by hitters from both sides of the plate, which made me strongly consider the right-handed-hitting Mookie Betts (who homered off him in both of the last two at-bats that he faced him earlier this season).

However, I am going to stick with the traditional splits matchup and roll with lefty Freddie Freeman here. Freeman is one of the most consistent hitters in baseball, even in the later stages of his career. He hasn't hit as many home runs the last few seasons, but he continues to drive the baseball with authority while racking up singles and doubles and driving in runs.

But we want a home run today, Freddie, and his profile against Pfaadt makes me think we can get one. He's faced Pfaadt 18 times since 2023, and while he has only homered once, he has barreled him up 20% of the time with a .556% SLG%. In the five batted ball events from this season against Pfaadt, four have been hit in the air or as a line drive with medium or high exit velocity.

Rafael Devers OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+380 DraftKings)

Devers came through for me in my last home run article, smacking two home runs on Wednesday as the Giants rolled up the Cubbies 12-4 in that one. Today, I am going back to the powerful lefty in what should be a great matchup for him against Baltimore's Tomoyuki Sugano.

Rafael Devers in 48 games since July 1st:

.251/.357/.474
10 HR
61.2 HardHit% (3rd in MLB)
.831 OPS
134 wRC+

Raffy is fully back to being Raffy in San Francisco 💪 pic.twitter.com/Id10cBhnyN

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) August 28, 2025

Devers has an elite 19.2% barrel% against RHP this season, and his opponent, Sugano, has been significantly worse against lefties - especially in terms of power with 15 HR allowed to southpaws (as opposed to nine allowed to righties).

When we dig a little deeper, we can see that Devers had great success this season against Sugano's best pitch - his splitter. Devers is hitting .348 against splitters from righties this season with two home runs. We already know he crushes fastballs, but it's also good to see that he's been all over curveballs this season, too (.462 average, .385 ISO) as Sugano's main breaking ball to lefties is his curve.

We don't have the same warm temperatures in San Francisco as we do in Los Angeles, but we should have winds blowing out to left-center to help aid any balls hit in the air today.

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