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Mike's Week 1 college football betting picks against the spread for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday games in 2025. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis & ATS picks from RotoBaller.
The college football season is only a couple of dozen games old, and we have already seen some crazy things. I'm here for it! With so many marquee matchups going on in Week 1, there promises to be many more good finishes.
There are 63 games over the next three days, but only 29 of them feature FBS vs. FBS teams. Most of the games between FCS and FBS schools aren't even on the major sportsbooks. Some sites will create a line for you if you ask, but it most certainly won't favor you. Since those are off the books anyway, I won't pick them, either. I have to draw the line somewhere.
We won't complain about those things. There are a lot of great matchups in Week 1! We'll take a look at the rest of the best weekend of the college football season.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 1 (8/30-9/1/25)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
(1) Texas at (3) Ohio State (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Texas has NEVER lost against Ohio State at The Shoe.
In the only matchup between the teams in Columbus, Texas came back and won.
They went on to win the National Championship that year.
Could we see the same this year for the Longhorns?
— SEC Numbers Guy (@secnumbersguy) August 26, 2025
I'm not going to pretend to know that I've got the bead on this one. On a neutral field, I take Texas without a second thought. When it comes down to it, I trust Arch Manning a little more than Julian Sayin.
I know Ohio State is going to come out swinging much like they did against Tennessee in the CFP last year. The difference is that I think Texas can withstand the body blows. I expect a close one, but I also expect a Texas win. So does Vegas. This line is half of what it opened at and will likely be even money by kickoff.
Pick: Texas +1.5
Syracuse at (24) Tennessee (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There's more play in this line than I would like, and I wish I had jumped on it at 14.5. I like what Fran Brown has going on up there at Syracuse, but can they get to this Tennessee defense? I have my doubts. I also have some doubts about the Tennessee run game.
I do expect a close game here. If that's true, then the spread doesn't really matter. I'll take the Orange and the points.
Pick: Syracuse +13.5
Mississippi State (-13.5) at Southern Mississippi
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I understand what kind of coach Jeff Lebby is. He's an offensive genius, but this offense was just plain offensive last year. I think Fluff Bothwell is an excellent addition and will be an impact player. The problem is that I really don't trust Blake Shapen. I also don't think that Braylon Braxton is a good fit in the Southern Miss offense.
Where does that leave us? With an anemic offensive showing on both sides. Give me the Eagles.
Pick: Southern Mississippi +13.5
Florida Atlantic at Maryland (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Maryland is playing possum and hasn't publicly committed to Malik Washington as the starting quarterback. I suppose that the Terrapins are really on the fence about this, but I doubt it. So does Vegas.
FAU brought the Caden Veltkamp-Easton Messer connection from Western Kentucky to Boca for their senior seasons. The offense will look better, but if Washington is indeed the starter, I'm less confident in FAU being able to hang around. I'll scale back the bet a bit.
Pick: Florida Atlantic +14.5
Ball State at Purdue (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I hate this line. Ball State is awful. Purdue isn't much better than awful, but Devin Mockobee could run for 250 yards if Purdue turns him loose. Give me the Boilers, I guess. I'm still not a fan.
Pick: Purdue -17.5
Northwestern at Tulane (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
One of the players I’m most intrigued to watch in 2025 is Preston Stone. People forgot what he did in 2023 pre-ACL tear.
Could easily be an upper echelon Big Ten QB at Northwestern, especially after a fully healthy offseason. pic.twitter.com/LVk6c9FHT2
— Steve Helwick (@s_helwick) August 22, 2025
Tulane claims that they still haven't decided on a quarterback. Even though Jake Retzlaff was a late arrival in New Orleans, I find this hard to believe. Retzlaff gives Tulane the best chance to win.
Believe it or not, Northwestern has more continuity than Tulane does. Transfers out of the program are going to hurt Tulane. Enough to lose to Northwestern? I doubt it, but it's not out of the question. However, it is enough for me to scale this back a little.
Pick: Tulane -5.5
Toledo at Kentucky (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is in a free fall. It opened four points higher. This has become a trendy pick for a place for a MAC team to make a statement. It has swung too far. I'm not a huge believer in the Kentucky offense, but this defense is legit. I'll say Kentucky by 10 or so.
Pick: Kentucky -9.5
Old Dominion at (20) Indiana (-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
One thing we know about Curt Cignetti is that he has no qualms about blowing opponents out. Indiana isn't going to let up.
Pick: Indiana -23.5
Nevada at (2) Penn State (-44.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Penn State has absolutely no interest in covering this line. The starters likely won't play after halftime, and I have to assume that means both Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Penn State just wants to make sure no one gets hurt.
Pick: Nevada +44.5
Marshall at (5) Georgia (-38.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Brother, I hate to break it to you but Kirby shows mercy every time he plays one of these cupcakes. 0-13 against the spread when it's 38+, and not bc he couldn't easily smash it
— Stephen Clark (@sclark12385) August 28, 2025
Kirby Smart is 0-13 against the spread when the line is above 38 points. I have no faith in Marshall at all, but this is a trend worth following. Georgia tends to use games like this as a glorified practice, and I have no problem with that. I just won't bet on the Dawgs to cover.
Pick: Marshall +38.5
(8) Alabama (-13.5) at Florida State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I will buy that Florida State hangs around for a while, but I don't know that Alabama's offense is going to suffer that much without Jam Miller. Kalen DeBoer's offense treated Dillon Johnson as an afterthought at Washington. I think we'll just see Ty Simpson run a little more. Alabama is going to pull away later in the game.
Pick: Alabama -13.5
Temple (-1.5) at Massachusetts
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Whatever you do, don't bet on this mess. Just run both of them in DFS and go for profit there.
Pick: Massachusetts +1.5
Coastal Carolina at Virginia (-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Chandler Morris has had a longer college football career than most get in the NFL. Is he really going to make Virginia any better? I trust NC State refugee MJ Morris running the Roosters more than I trust a four-times recycled Chandler Morris.
Pick: Coastal Carolina +12.5
UTSA at (19) Texas A&M (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Aggies always have a ton of talent, but I'll believe it when I see it. UTSA is not a bad team, and this line is basically saying they are. I don't buy it. I want to say UTSA wins outright, but I doubt that's the case. However, this shouldn't be a blowout.
Pick: UTSA +24.5
(9) LSU at (4) Clemson (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If you are betting on Clemson, shop around. It is still at 2.5 if you look hard enough. LSU indeed needs this game more, but they did against USC last year as well -- at a neutral site, no less -- and laid a massive egg. I don't like the hook, but I do trust Clemson more.
Pick: Clemson -3.5
New Mexico at (14) Michigan (-34.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
New Mexico is horrible, and the offense likely won't score a point. Can the Michigan offense score 35? Do they even want to? I'm going to say no, because Michigan has a big game against Oklahoma next week. This offense is going to be as vanilla as possible, so they don't give anything away.
Pick: New Mexico +34.5
Missouri State at USC (-35.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know what to expect from Missouri State, but USC usually beats up on lesser teams to feed Lincoln Riley's super-sized ego.
Pick: USC -35.5
UTEP at Utah State (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
As official depth charts are released for college football, let me check up on what Utah State released this morning... pic.twitter.com/QmpLnRi74f
— Jason Walker (@jwalker_sports) August 25, 2025
Bronco Mendenhall is a fun coach. He turns in blank depth charts. He has balls of titanium. You never know what he's going to do. However, I tend to gravitate towards No. 1 overall recruits finally getting a chance to start.
Pick: UTEP +6.5
Georgia State at (21) Mississippi (-34.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Lane Kiffin is kind of in the Cignetti vein when it comes to blowouts. He wants Austin Simmons to get some in-game experience. I don't see the Rebels letting up either.
Pick: Mississippi -34.5
Rice at Louisiana (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Rice lost what little talent it had from a bad team. The Owls are going to be lucky to win three games this year.
Pick: Louisiana -11.5
Eastern Michigan at Texas State (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bobcats will be far less explosive without Jordan McCloud and Ismail Mahdi, but they are usually money at home. Former Pitt quarterback Nate Yarnell takes over for the Bobcats with former Arkansas State RB Lincoln Pare behind him. This is still going to be a solid team. I can't say the same about the boys from Ypsilanti.
Pick: Texas State -13.5
Georgia Southern (-1.5) at Fresno State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I still believe in E.J. Warner running this team, especially at home. I'm not going to let the Kansas game cloud my initial read of the Bulldogs.
Pick: Fresno State +1.5
California at Oregon State (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Beavers did lose Ben Gulbranson to Stanford, but they gained former Texas blue-chipper Maalik Murphy. I think the Beavers came out all right in that trade. Cal didn't come out on the good side of anything this offseason.
Pick: Oregon State -1.5
Hawaii at Arizona (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
WHOLESOME: Hawaii kicker Kansei Matsuzawa said he was more nervous speaking in English after the game than kicking the game-winning kick.
He is, 20, from Tokyo, was a Morton’s waiter. Saw NFL game in US, learned to kick FGs via YouTube.
Hell of a story 🥹pic.twitter.com/ls0YnH2nh7
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) August 24, 2025
Noah Fifita will be playing without Tetairoa McMillan for the first time since middle school. Meanwhile, freshman phenom Micah Alejado is expected to be ready for this game. I know Arizona is the better team and will likely win, but I feel Hawaii keeps it close.
Pick: Hawaii +17.5
Utah (-5.5) at UCLA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This line has been inching upward for the entire week. Vegas knows what I know. There is no way in Hell UCLA wins this game, especially when their fans may be outnumbered in their own stadium.
Utah is finally done waiting on Cameron Rising to become that guy. The Utes know exactly what they are getting with Devon Dampier and Wayshawn Parker. It's all good, by the way.
Pick: Utah -5.5
Colorado State at Washington (-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I know that the Colorado State defense is bad, but the Rams' offense might be better than Washington's. This is too many.
Pick: Colorado State +21.5
Virginia Tech vs. (13) South Carolina (-7.5) at Atlanta
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I have this sinking feeling that I was a year early on Virginia Tech, and I'm a year late on South Carolina. I do believe South Carolina is the better team, but that hook is enough to make me lower the bet.
Pick: South Carolina -7.5
(6) Notre Dame (-2.5) at (10) Miami (FL)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This isn’t a request.
This is a challenge.
On August 31st, we Orange Out Hard Rock Stadium.
Be loud. Be relentless. Be the difference maker.
Tickets: https://t.co/mRk2My8KCG pic.twitter.com/gDdqvaGW9P
— Miami Hurricanes Football (@CanesFootball) August 17, 2025
Catholics vs. Convicts, how we have missed you! Even Miami seems to be embracing it by encouraging the fans to wear Orange. If this game is rainy, as the forecasts are saying right now, it favors Miami even more. I liked Miami at home anyway.
Pick: Miami (FL) +2.5
TCU (-2.5) at North Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Vegas doesn't believe in Bill Belichick, so why should we?
Pick: TCU -2.5
I went heavy on the two-pointers with 19 of my 44 picks landing there. I only placed four minimum bets and three maximum. I had 11 that were right in the middle and seven more four-point picks. Good luck out there!
