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Happy Monday, RotoBallers! We're back with another Monday Night Football showdown article! How exciting of a time is it? I hope your team saw great success yesterday, as we all want to kick back, relax, and NFC battle as the Seattle Seahawks (2-1) head to MetLife to take on the New York Giants (1-2). Saquon Barkley (ankle) is currently doubtful for tonight's game; we'll see how that affects our DFS lineups. Let's get right to it!
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Giants vs. Seahawks NFL DFS showdown slate on October 2. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Geno Smith - QB, $15,000 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 736 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, one interception.
- Projected Offensive Pass DVOA: 71.04%
I'm going to start things off here with Geno Smith. Smith is the highest-projected player on the slate, according to my model; projecting to 238.49 passing yards and 1.62 touchdown passes, as well as 15.92 yards on the ground. He'll take on a Giants defense that ranks 30th in defensive DVOA against the pass (46.02%). All of his receivers are in great matchups, and while one sticks out (more on that below), I expect him to spread the love tonight.
Tyler Lockett - WR, $12,000 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 21 targets, 13 receptions, 103 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
That one wide receiver who brings in a favorable matchup is Tyler Lockett. Lockett does a lot of his work out of the slot, where the Giants allow 4.5 receptions on 5.5 targets per game. Tonight, Lockett projects to 5.86 receptions on 7.15 targets for 80.6 receiving yards and 0.43 touchdowns. He also has the strongest matchup in terms of DVOA, as the Giants bring in an 82.93% DVOA vs. WR2s, the third-worst among all receivers in the league.
Other Captains/MVPs: Kenneth Walker, Darren Waller, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
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DFS Flex Plays
Kenneth Walker III - RB, $10,800 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 47 carries, 204 rushing yards, 10 targets, eight receptions, 73 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- Projected Offensive Rush DVOA: 16.24%
Another favorable matchup on the Seahawks' side of the football is Kenneth Walker III and the Seattle run game. I'm truthfully shocked that the spread is only 1.5 points in favor of the Seahawks. I think this spread should be closer to five points, giving Walker plenty of time to "salt the clock" toward the end of the game. My model projects Walker to grab 73.16 rushing yards on 13.5 carries and 0.76 touchdowns. His ceiling is limited due to the poor pass-catching matchup, but that's not a huge part of Walker's game anyway.
Darren Waller - TE, $7,000 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 20 targets, 12 receptions, 132 receiving yards.
I'll take a look at my first Giant of the slate in Darren Waller. Waller has had a slow start to his tenure in New (Jersey), but if there was going to be a game for him to break out, it would be this one. I think Brian Daboll will want Daniel Jones to get the ball out quickly early on in the game with some easy targets, and I think Waller fits that mold. Seattle also comes into this one ranked 31st in DVOA against TEs (59.9%). My model projects Waller to catch 3.97 of his 6.76 targets for 61.79 yards and 0.28 touchdowns.
Other Flex Options: Daniel Jones, DK Metcalf, Isaiah Hodgins
DFS Value Plays
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - WR, $5,000 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 14 targets, nine receptions, 57 receiving yards.
I'll take a look at wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba as my first value play. I mentioned earlier that all of Seattle's pass catchers have quality matchups and that I think Geno will spread the love, so why not take a chance on the rookie at this price? My model projects JSN to catch 3.2 of his 5.12 targets for 34.64 yards and 0.24 touchdowns. He'll have to play third fiddle to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett for a while, but I think he could have a ceiling night in this one.
Parris Campbell - WR, $2,800 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 16 targets, 11 receptions, 47 receiving yards.
I'll wrap things up with seemingly my favorite guy to write about in these showdown articles, Parris Campbell. I wrote him up last Thursday when the Giants were in San Francisco and he caught all six of his targets, albeit for just 24 yards. He's since dropped in price on DraftKings by $1600, making him an absolute steal. My model projects him to catch 2.84 of his 4.05 targets for 29.85 yards and 0.19 touchdowns. I'd go lighter on FanDuel due to the scoring, but Campbell has the best matchup of the night in terms of Giants wide receivers, so I'll take a shot.
Other Value Plays: Darius Slayton, Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks D/ST, Jason Myers
Enjoy your week and good luck, everyone!
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