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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/24/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, September 24, 2023.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 70-53-4 (1.13 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Blue Jays @ Rays
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: TB -126
TOR: Yusei Kikuchi | TB: Taj Bradley
I'll start things off down in Tampa Bay as the Blue Jays and Rays wrap up their weekend set.
It'll be Yusei Kikuchi (10-6, 3.74 ERA) taking the ball for Toronto in this one. Kikuchi has been due for some regression, albeit not much, given his 4.11 xERA and 3.81 xFIP. The projected Rays lineup sees Kikuchi rather well, bringing in a .280 batting average and .409 slugging percentage. Kikuchi projects to a 3.97 SIERA today, while the Rays project to a .340 wOBA.
Taj Bradley will take the mound for the Rays today. Bradley (5-7, 5.36 ERA) has been incredibly unlucky in 2023, as shown by his 4.47 xERA and 3.72 xFIP. Nevertheless, he'll make his second start against the Blue Jays today. The first one didn't go so well, as he allowed four earned runs on nine hits in just four innings. Even still, he projects to give the Rays an advantage here with a 3.73 SIERA, while the Blue Jays project to just a .301 wOBA against him.
I'll back the Rays as slight favorites here, grabbing them at -126 on FanDuel.
Pick: Rays Moneyline (-126), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.79 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mets @ Phillies
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: PHI -180
NYM: Jose Butto | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez
I'll wrap things up the same place I wrapped things up on Friday: out in Philly as the Mets and Phillies wrap up their four-game set, with the Phillies taking the first three of the series.
The Mets will send Jose Butto (1-2, 3.09 ERA) to the mound today. The 25-year-old righty has been a bit lucky this season, albeit in a small sample size, bringing in a 3.65 xERA and 4.84 xFIP. He's yet to pitch against the Phillies in 2023, but the Philadelphia lineup has proven to be unstoppable of late. They bring in a projected .369 wOBA against Butto, who projects to a 4.13 SIERA.
The Phillies will hand the ball to Cristopher Sanchez (2-5, 3.55 ERA) in this one. Sanchez, despite the poor record, has been a very pleasant surprise for Philly this season. He brings in a 3.91 xERA, 3.23 xFIP, and a projected 3.49 SIERA. Sanchez threw five innings of three-run ball against the Mets back in June, and I think even a repeat performance of that will be good enough for him today. The Mets bring in a respectable .324 projected wOBA, but I still like the Phillies here.
I'll just stick with the F5 run line here, which we can get at -144 on FanDuel. The Phillies bullpen has been struggling of late, but I trust their bats to get the job done in the first five innings this afternoon.
Pick: Phillies F5 -0.5 (-144), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.69 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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