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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Saints vs. Panthers showdown slate on 9/18/2023. His Monday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! We're back with our first Monday Night Football showdown article of the year! How exciting of a time is it? I hope your team saw great success yesterday, as we all want to kick back, relax, and enjoy this interdivisional football game as the New Orleans Saints (1-0) head just a bit north to take on the first-overall pick Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers (0-1).
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Saints vs. Panthers NFL DFS showdown slate on September 18. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Derek Carr - QB, $15,600 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 305 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception
- Projected Offensive Pass DVOA: 20.39%
- Projected Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -1.7%
I'll start things off with Saints quarterback Derek Carr. While Carr didn't lead the Saints' offense to a ton of points in Week 1, it seemed like he was able to rack up yards through the air and get the win. This is a positive sign for Dennis Allen and the Saints, especially considering the perceived weakness (watch out for those Bucs!) of the NFC South. My model projects Carr to throw for 245.37 yards and 1.47 touchdowns today. I don't think he dices up this Panthers defense, but I do think he ends up as tonight's highest-scoring player.
Michael Thomas - WR, $16,200 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: Eight targets, five receptions, 61 receiving yards.
If I'm not playing Michael Thomas in the captain/MVP spot, I'll be stacking him with the aforementioned Carr. Thomas saw eight targets in Week 1. Tonight, my model has him getting six, which I think is a bit low, catching five for 54.56 yards and having a 30% chance of finding the end zone. While he doesn't have the explosiveness and big-play potential like his fellow receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, he provides a solid safety blanket for Carr in this offense. We can expect him to see north of seven targets in this one.
Other Captains/MVPs: Chris Olave, Miles Sanders, Saints D/ST
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DFS Flex Plays
Chris Olave - WR, $10,600 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 10 targets, eight receptions, 112 receiving yards
Speaking of Chris Olave, a guy who season-long fantasy players came into 2023 very excited about, came to play in Week 1. Olave didn't find the end zone but managed to rack up north of 100 receiving yards. Tonight, my model projects him to rack up 79.72 receiving yards on 5.56 receptions (7.72 targets), as well as a 40% chance of finding the end zone. He's just a bit too expensive for me to rank him north of Michael Thomas in the captain spot, especially on DraftKings.
Bryce Young - QB, $6,400 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: 146 passing yards, one touchdown, two interceptions
- Projected Offensive Pass DVOA: -13.65%
- Projected Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -13.96%
I'll name my first Panthers offensive player of the night in the form of this year's top pick, Bryce Young. Neither Young nor the Carolina offense were particularly impressive in Week 1, putting just 10 points on the board. It doesn't get easier as they take on Dennis Allen's vaunted defense here on Monday night. My model projects Young to throw for just 168.15 yards and 0.82 touchdowns. Still, I do believe this game to be low-scoring enough from a fantasy perspective that it's tough to fade Young if he plays a solid game.
Other Flex Options: Adam Thielen, Jamaal Williams, Rashid Shaheed
DFS Value Plays
New Orleans Saints - D/ST, $5,600 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: 15 points allowed, three sacks, three interceptions
If you haven't noticed to this point, I'm not a huge fan of the Carolina offense in this one. The Saints took on Ryan Tannehill, who has been pretty efficient and hasn't turned the ball over a ton since becoming a Titan, forcing him to throw three interceptions. They should absolutely feast on the rookie here, and could honestly end up being the top scorer on this showdown slate.
Jonathan Mingo - WR, $2,400 (DK), $7,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: Five targets, two receptions, 17 receiving yards
I'll wrap things up with Carolina rookie receiver Jonathan Mingo. Mingo showed some flashes in Week 1, despite the stat sheet not looking too great. Tonight, my model projects him to grab 2.29 of his 4.03 targets for 28.11 receiving yards and a 15% chance of finding the end zone. Truthfully, my model doesn't love any of the Carolina receivers here, so I'll take a shot at Mingo considering his dirt-cheap prices on both sites.
Other Value Plays: Panthers D/ST, Taysom Hill, Eddy Pineiro
Enjoy your week and good luck, everyone!
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