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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have an inter-divisional battle here as the explosive Dolphins offense heads into Foxborough to take on a Patriots defense that looked very good against the Eagles in Week 1. The Eagles offense has had plenty of question marks through two weeks now, whereas the Dolphins offense looked very impressive against the Chargers last week. It'll be interesting to see how this one shakes out, and without further ado, let's get right into it.
We've been pretty successful over the past few seasons with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Dolphins vs. Patriots Sunday Night NFL DFS showdown slate on September 17. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Tua Tagovailoa - QB, $16,800 (DK), $16,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: 466 passing yards, three touchdowns, one interception.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 32.95% (4th, per FTN)
- 2022 Defensive Pass DVOA: -11.61% (1st, per FTN)
I'll start things off with Tua Tagovailoa here. One interception aside, Tua was excellent last week against the Chargers. He'll look to ride that momentum against the Patriots this evening. Tua is 4-0 against New England, despite not playing incredibly well (726 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions). Tonight, he projects to 282.93 yards and 1.89 passing touchdowns. The Patriots kept Jalen Hurts in check last Sunday, but I think Miami's offense will be a bit more in sync here.
Mac Jones - QB, $15,000 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: 316 passing yards, three touchdowns, one interception.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 1.22% (27th per FTN)
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 12.43%, (25th per FTN)
Similarly to Tua, Mac Jones looked pretty impressive in Week 1 against the Eagles, albeit in a loss. Credit to Bill O'Brien and Bill Belichick for drawing up a strong game plan to neutralize the Philadelphia pass rush. Jones was relatively accurate, completing just under 65% of his passes. He projects to 240.37 passing yards and 1.67 touchdowns tonight. He's a good captain option on DraftKings with top-three (on the slate) upside, despite being the fifth-highest-priced option.
Other Captains/MVPs: Tyreek Hill, Rhamondre Stevenson, Braxton Berrios
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DFS Flex Plays
Rhamondre Stevenson - RB, $9,400 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: 12 carries, 25 yards, six receptions, 64 receiving yards.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -8.69% (21st, per FTN)
- 2022 Defensive Rush DVOA: -17.59% (4th, per FTN)
We're getting "dual-threat" value here with Rhamondre. Austin Ekeler and Josh Kelley combined for 208 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground last week, while Ekeler added 47 yards on four receptions (five targets) in the passing game. Stevenson projects to 51.54 yards on the ground and 24.57 receiving yards on 3.32 receptions. He is essentially game script-proof here; if the Patriots can keep this one close he'll get his work done on the ground and if it starts getting out of hand the dump-offs should help him hit value regardless.
Tyreek Hill - WR $12,600 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: 15 targets, 11 receptions, 215 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
I tried holding off mentioning Hill in this article, as he's nearly impossible to get into a bunch of builds tonight as this is an extremely top-heavy slate. Nevertheless, I couldn't resist as I totally expect him to build off his insane Week 1 performance. While statistical regression is surely imminent, it doesn't mean he can't have an explosive night. My model projects him to log 7.03 receptions on double-digit targets for 90.34 yards and gives him a 60% chance of finding the end zone.
Other Flex Options: Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, JuJu Smith-Schuster
DFS Value Plays
Mike Gesicki - TE, $2,400 (DK), $7,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: Three targets, three receptions, 36 receiving yards.
I'll take a look at Mike Gesicki as a value play here. Gesicki had a relatively quiet Week 1, but did catch all three of his targets for a solid 12 yards per reception. Gesicki projects to just 1.92 receptions on 2.86 targets for 20.63 yards and a 21% chance of finding the end zone. We have a revenge game factor here, which makes me think that this is a slight under-projection on my model's part. He's a solid play for an anytime touchdown prop here as well, which you can get at +500 on FanDuel.
Braxton Berrios - WR, $2,000 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: Five targets, three receptions, 42 receiving yards.
I'll finish things up with Braxton Berrios. This is pretty DraftKings-specific, where Berrios is absolutely dirt cheap. Given the fact that he saw five targets in Week 1. My model projects Berrios to have 2.82 receptions on 4.11 targets for 24.86 receiving yards. There may be target regression here, but it's a risk I'm willing to take at $2,000 on DraftKings. If Belichick does what I think he's going to do in an attempt to "eliminate" Tyreek Hill, both Berrios and Jaylen Waddle could have solid nights.
Other Value Options: Hunter Henry, Ezekiel Elliot, Dolphins D/ST
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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