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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, September 10, 2023.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 67-50-4 (+2.02 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Phillies
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: PHI -112
MIA: Steven Okert | PHI: Ranger Suarez
I'll start things off the same place I did Friday, out in Philly as the Phillies and Marlins look to wrap up their weekend series.
It'll likely be Steven Okert (3-1, 3.44 ERA) taking the ball for the Marlins today. But in all likelihood, this will be a bullpen game for Miami. Okert himself brings in a 3.39 xERA and 4.19 xFIP. He, along with the rest of the Marlins bullpen, projects to a 4.11 SIERA against a hot Phillies lineup that projects to a .378 wOBA in this one.
It'll be Ranger Suarez (2-6, 3.91 ERA) taking the ball for the Phillies. Suarez had a fine but not great outing in his first start back last Sunday against the Brewers, allowing two runs across four innings. Suarez tossed six innings of one-run ball against the Marlins back on August 1 and will look to continue that streak of good pitching this afternoon. He projects to a 4.11 SIERA against a Marlins lineup that projects to a .302 wOBA.
We're getting good value on the Phillies here, who look to extend their lead atop the NL Wild Card standings. We can get them at -112 on FanDuel.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-112), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.68 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Athletics @ Rangers
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: TEX -255
OAK: Luis Medina | TEX: Jon Gray
I'll head down south to Texas for my second play of the day.
Luis Medina will take the ball for Oakland in this one. Medina (3-8, 5.46 ERA) has been a prime candidate for positive regression, bringing in a 4.69 xERA and 4.74 xFIP. He's had a tough go of things lately, allowing six earned runs in his last 7.2 innings pitched. He projects to a 5.28 SIERA in this one. While the Rangers project to just a .319 wOBA today, I think they do a good job of getting to the rookie right-hander this afternoon.
It'll be Jon Gray (8-7, 3.85 ERA) taking the hill for the Rangers today. Gray seems to have not pitched as well as the numbers suggest, as indicated by his 4.26 xERA and 4.31 xFIP. However, he's allowed just three runs in 13.2 innings against Oakland this season and projects to a 3.68 SIERA against them today. The Athletics project to just a .288 wOBA in this matchup, providing us some solid value on the Rangers here.
We can get the Rangers on the run line at -120 on FanDuel. I expect them to take care of business in hopes of righting the ship and raising their chances of making a playoff run.
Pick: Rangers -1.5 (-120), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.74 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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