College Football Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 1) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for ESPN Pickem Contests

Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN College Pick Em for Week 1 of the 2023 NCAA college football season. Which upsets have the best chance of happening?

We are back with more ESPN College Pick Em picks for the 2023 season! We at RotoBaller have offered a prize for the winner of this group for the last couple of seasons, but the bosses have upped the stakes this year. The entry with the most points at the end of Week 14 of the 2023 college football season will get a free year of RotoBaller premium access across ALL sports, not just college football!

That will give you access to premium lineup tools, DFS optimizers, betting picks (including props), expert articles, predictions, and draft tools for MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, and college football. You will even get access to the RotoBaller Discord for expert help on lineup decisions and DFS chat throughout any season. All you have to do is know your college football. Sign up now! 

jphowell09 won the group last year with 505 points, so you have an idea of what it will take to win.

College Football Pick Em Overview

This article will be for the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!

Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on Twitter. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week. Good luck out there. The first weeks are usually a bit easier, but there are some fun games in the real opening week!

(1) California over North Texas

If Austin Aune had returned to Denton, I would have picked the Mean Green. However, Jadyn Ott isn't just a good back...he's a great back on a really bad team. Think Marshawn Lynch when he was at Cal in his first year or two. TCU transfer Sam Jackson could shore up the QB slot, and if he fails, N.C. State transfer Ben Finley can lead this team. The loss of J. Michael Sturdivant is a massive one for Cal, so expect them to lean on Ott a lot in the early going.

(2) Illinois over Toledo

I am about this (_) close to picking Toledo outright. If I trusted Dequan Finn against this Illini defense, I would. I don't have a ton of faith in Ole Miss transfer Luke Altmeyer, but I do trust his backup (Ball State transfer John Paddock). Reggie Love III is back for another year of chewing up opponents on the ground and former quarterback Isaiah Williams has turned himself into an NFL prospect at receiver. Illinois has talent around the unproven quarterbacks. Enough talent to survive a better-than-you-expect Toledo team.

(3) Purdue over Fresno State

The Bulldogs begin the impossible task of finding a replacement for Jake Haener and Jordan Mims. Central Florida transfer Mikey Keene will take over at quarterback and Ohio State transfer Jaelen Gill gives him a reliable target at receiver. I have questions about Malik Sherrod at running back. Purdue also breaks in a new quarterback in Texas transfer Hudson Card, but having Devin Mockobee and the ground game back gives the Boilermakers a nice advantage here.

(4) UTSA over Houston

The Roadrunners have experience on their side, and they don't have Dana Holgorsen. I'm beginning to think that's a good thing. Gone are Clayton Tune and Nathaniel Dell from the Cougars' high-powered offense. In are Texas Tech transfer Donovan Smith and West Virginia transfer Tony Mathis. Alton McCaskill headed for Boulder, leaving another hole in this team that Mathis can't fill by himself.

De'Corian Clark and Joshua Cephus are good enough to make up for the loss of Zakhari Franklin to Ole Miss for the Roadrunners. Frank Harris has run this offense with amazing precision for four years now. This kind of continuity is going to lead UTSA to new heights this year. It starts here.

(5) South Carolina over North Carolina

I might even move this one up higher. I remember Drake Maye's last four games and Spencer Rattler's last four games of last season. Rattler beat Tennessee and Clemson. Maye threw as many interceptions as touchdowns and lost to a terrible Georgia Tech team. It's not all on Maye, but he can't save all of the defensive lapses that the Tarheels had down the stretch. This RB room for UNC might be the deepest in the country, but they lack top-end elite talent. Georgia Tech transfer Nate McCollum has the impossible task of trying to replace Josh Downs. South Carolina only has to replace Marshawn Lloyd, and they basically did that at the end of last year anyway.

(6) Tulane over South Alabama

The Green Wave are a good team, but so is South Alabama and the Jags have more continuity on offense. Tulane's defense is enough better to win this game, but USA is going to keep this close. Strange things happen when dogs keep a game close.

(7) Rutgers over Northwestern

Cincinnati and Eastern Michigan transfer Ben Bryant can't be relied on to fix everything that is wrong with Northwestern, a team that went 0-for-North America last season. Bryant will keep them competitive at times, but the Wildcats did nothing to improve the offensive line or running game.

(8) TCU over Colorado

Colorado is going to be improved this year, but by how much and how soon? Not this much and not this soon. The Ralphies might stick around for a half or so, but TCU should pull away in the second half.

(9) Army over Louisiana-Monroe

The Warhawks allowed 194.8 rushing yards per game last year and allowed 29 rushing touchdowns in 12 games. They were ground into submission by Army on October 22 last year, allowing 441 rushing yards and six touchdowns on the ground. Don't expect any changes this time around.

(10) Penn State over West Virginia

Penn State has an advantage at nearly every position, so the fact that Drew Allar is unproven doesn't bother me here. The defense, specifically the linebackers, are the strength of this team. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen should pound the Mounties into submission early before Allar gets some low-pressure reps in.

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