PrizePicks PGA DFS Prop Picks - Over/Under Props for the BMW Championship (Round 1)

Welcome to our PrizePicks PGA DFS prop picks for the BMW Championship (Round 1). The FedEx Cup Playoffs are already upon us, and to celebrate, PrizePicks has an extensive selection of PGA props to take advantage of! PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or singular stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.

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This week, we're at Olympia Fields North for the 2023 BMW Championship! The second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs will see points quadrupled from their regular season benchmarks and the 50 playoff hopefuls cut down to 30 before the TOUR Championship next week. The last time we visited this historic venue, it played as the most difficult non-major stop on the PGA Tour in over five years. With so much on the line, these brutal conditions are sure to produce a ton of movement in the season-long standings, and anyone who hopes to earn a pole position next week at Eastlake will need to have their entire game in order. I and the entire Rotoballer PGA staff have put out 1,000s of words on the course, key stats, and field this week, so this article won't be focused on the minutiae of projecting outright winners or DFS pivot plays. Instead, I'll be solely focused on a few money-making opportunities I've found in PrizePicks' unique markets to help you build your bankroll as the PGA Tour season gets into full swing! Today's plays are specifically for round one on Thursday, August 17.

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Jason Day LESS than 14.0 Pars or Better

A resurgent start to 2023 has slowly withered away for the Australian superstar, as Jason Day comes into the BMW Championship on the back of a 52nd, 45th, and three missed cuts in his last five stateside starts. Day rates out dead last in this field in SG: APP over the last three months, 48th out of 50 players from tee-to-green, and 49th out of 50 in GIR %.

The ball striking is no longer reliable enough for me to trust around a first-class golf course such as Olympia Fields, and his history around this particular venue gives even more pause when attempting to project a much-needed turnaround. J-Day put together rounds of 76-74-76-68 in a 64th-place finish here back in 2020 - losing over 10 shots ball-striking in the process. And before you allude to the fact that Day's 2023 campaign has been the best version of him we've seen in years, he was coming into the 2020 BMW with four top 7 finishes over his last five starts (two starts coming at Muirfield Village and another at the PGA Championship at Harding Park).

It is difficult to bet against one of the greatest scramblers of the modern era, but with a recent Bogey Avoidance ranking of 33rd out of 50 players, even a short game like JDay's needs some sort of cooperation from the ball-striking. With 15/18 holes playing over par historically, Olympia Fields isn't exactly a premier get-right spot for a struggling golf swing. I'll kindly stay away from the down-trending Queenslander.

Scottie Scheffler MORE than 11.5 Greens in Regulation

I understand that Olympia Fields might provide the stiffest non-major test on the PGA Tour schedule, but when we start setting Scottie Scheffler's line at 11.5 Greens in Regulation, a line needs to start forming in the sand. Scheffler has lapped the entire PGA Tour in GIR % in 2023: Hitting nearly 3/4s of his greens this season, and is currently on a run of 367 days without losing strokes on Approach. That's right. It's been over a year (25 events) since Scheffler has lost strokes to the field on Approach, and he's consistently produced his best work when conditions are at their toughest:

• +7.6 Strokes Gained on Approach at Augusta National
• +12.7 at Muirfield Village
• +5.7 at Oak Hill (PGA Championship)
• +6.8 at LACC (U.S. Open)

Scheffler also ranks 1st in Total Driving and 1st from Tee-to-Green over both a three and six-month sample, so if there's anyone capable of picking apart Olympia Fields with pure ball-striking acuity, it's the 27-year-old Texan. There are certainly concerns to cite with Scottie when it comes down to finishing the hole, but from tee-to-green, there's still nobody in the game I trust more. Fade the course, take the discount, and run on the World No. 1.

Other Recommendations

• Hideki Matsuyama LESS than 71.5 Strokes
• Lucas Glover MORE than Tom Hoge - Birdies or Better Matchup
• Tommy Fleetwood MORE than Seamus Power - Birdies or Better Matchup

Overall recommendation for this play: Power Play

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