RADIO
Frank Dyeovich explains why he thinks these three NFL rookie WRs will be some of the biggest values for the upcoming fantasy football season in 2023.
One of the critical mistakes that a fantasy football manager can make during the draft season is ignoring the rookies. Most of the die-hard players are well-informed on the rookies before the NFL draft takes place. But the casual fantasy manager might not familiarize themselves with the league's newest playmakers until the week of their draft. That person could miss out on league-winning potential in the later rounds.
Every season, there are rookie wide receivers that finish as top-24 options in fantasy football. The rookie breakout trend started in 2014 with Sammy Watkins, Odell Beckham Jr., and Mike Evans. Beckham Jr. went undrafted and finished as the WR7 on the year in only 12 games and the WR1 in PPR points per game (PPG). Evans was the WR40 in ADP and finished as the WR13 overall. Watkins was WR37 in ADP and finished as WR26.
In 2020, Justin Jefferson was drafted as WR49 and finished as WR7 overall. In 2021, Ja'Marr Chase was drafted with an ADP of WR29 and finished as the WR5, Jaylen Waddle had an ADP of WR45 and finished as the WR12, and Amon-Ra St. Brown was undrafted and finished as the WR22 overall and the WR3 over the last eight weeks of the season. Last year was no different as we saw Chris Olave get drafted as the WR45 and finish as the WR24, and Garrett Wilson had an ADP of WR54 and finished as the WR21. Gaining an edge in fantasy football is about always thinking ahead, so let's take a look at the rookie wide receivers in this rookie class that could continue the breakout trend and finish as top-24 options.
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Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison was drafted 23rd overall as the fourth wide receiver off the board. He fills an immediate need for the Vikings due to the decline and eventual departure of Adam Thielen and should step in right away as the WR2 for the purple and gold.
Do not worry about the reports that K.J. Osborn is the team's WR2 because that is simply the offseason treatment of a team veteran versus an incoming rookie. Remember when Justin Jefferson was reported to be behind Bisi Johnson on the depth chart? How about when it was reported that Garrett Wilson was playing behind Braxton Berrios in camp? Ignore the noise and draft for talent. Addison has it in spades.
Addison became a household name in 2021 when he beat out Alabama's Jameson Williams for the Biletnikoff Award (Nation's best wide receiver) in his sophomore for the Pitt Panthers. He racked up 100 receptions for 1,593 yards (15.9 YPR) and an NCAA-leading 17 touchdowns with Kenny Pickett at the helm. He transferred to USC the following year where his numbers came back down to earth, posting 59 receptions for 875 yards and eight touchdowns in 11 games played.
Addison is an elite separator at all levels of the field and makes for an easy target for his quarterback. His fluid routes and variety of moves at the top of his breaks make it almost too easy for him to manipulate defenders and gain two-plus yards of separation.
He has excellent footwork off the line and is effective at selling false routes to throw defenders off balance. He is also one of the best receivers in this class when it comes to run-after-the-catch (RAC) opportunities. His top-end speed, excellent field vision, and elite agility make him a nightmare to tackle in the open field.
He can cut without decelerating and he can stop on a dime to use the defender's own momentum against him. These elements of his game make him a proficient weapon in the screen game and offer a Deebo Samuel-esque versatility that the Vikes are lacking.
Addison also has incredible mid-air body control, which makes for a comfortable safety valve for his quarterback. He has excellent deep-ball tracking skills and can position himself to make the catch from difficult angles or on poorly thrown balls.
He also has fantastic sideline awareness and can toe-drag with the best of them.
The only flaws in Addison's game come when physicality trumps finesse, contested catches, and blocking in the run game. You won't find many contested catches on Addison's tape due to his size. It is also because he is always open and defensive backs can't get close enough to make it a contested catch situation. But if they did, he would not be out-muscling NFL cornerbacks very often.
In addition to being uber-talented, Addison fell into a dream landing spot with the Vikings. He should operate as the team's WR2 almost immediately. With Justin Jefferson on the other side, he will never see double coverage or face shadow coverage from elite cornerbacks.
Addison will eat backup cornerbacks alive. Most of the time when he is facing 1-on-1 coverage, he has won the matchup before the ball is snapped. Kirk Cousins will have the luxury of knowing if Jefferson is not open. Addison probably is, and that is going to be a lethal combination for opposing defenses to prepare for.
Addison is currently going as the WR39 and that feels like stealing. Thielen finished as the WR31 last season as an aging veteran who has clearly lost a step. Now, a young, explosive, and crazy talented receiver like Addison is jumping into his role and is being drafted eight spots lower. Make it make sense. You can't.
If Addison sees the 107 targets that Thielen saw last year, he finishes at worst as the WR36. I have him projected for 123 targets. I currently have Addison as my WR32. I am taking him before players going ahead of him like Jahan Dotson, Gabe Davis, and Tyler Lockett. He is a rock-solid WR3 that has a clear path to WR2 volume.
Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers first-round rookie Quentin Johnston has everything you look for in a breakout receiver. He has first-round draft capital with an elite quarterback throwing him the ball on a high-scoring offense and two aging and oft-injured veterans ahead of him in the pecking order.
Standing at 6'4" and weighing 215 lbs, Johnston has the frame of the prototypical X receiver. He is the same size as Mike Williams, who is an unrestricted free agent in 2024 with a $17M cap hit next year. But he has a quicker burst, which makes him more lethal after the catch. Johnston should start as the WR3 behind Keenan Allen and Williams, which means he will face off against second-string and third-string cornerbacks.
Johnston played for three seasons at TCU and racked up 115 passes for 2,190 yards and 14 touchdowns. The touchdown total is a little low, but he only scored two in his freshman season, racking up six touchdowns in each of his sophomore and junior years.
His tape is littered with explosive plays both on deep passes and on run-after-the-catch opportunities, areas in which he excels. He ran a 4.49 40-yard dash at his pro day, and he leaped an even more impressive 40.5 inches in the vertical jump. With those ups, I'd expect him to be targeted heavily in the end zone at the next level.
The Chargers have a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore, who ran the fastest-paced offense in the league last year for the Dallas Cowboys. If we know anything about Moore, it is that he loves to air it out early and often.
Quarterback Justin Herbert is just the guy he needs to take his offense to the next level. Defenses are going to have their hands full trying to cover Allen in the slot and matching cornerbacks up against the towering Williams and Johnston. We have already seen a ton of deep shots in the training camp highlights all over social media and Johnston looks like he's fitting in seamlessly with Herbert and the offense.
The main knocks against Johnston's game coming into the league were that he had a limited route tree and he caught too often with his body instead of his hands. Fortunately, those seem to be two areas the Chargers have already started working on with him. Here he is catching an out by plucking the ball out of the air with his hands and toe-tapping the sideline, a part of his game that was not showcased very often at TCU.
Johnston has also been seen working on using his height to his advantage by high-pointing the football over smaller corners. This element of his game was also rarely seen as he was a predominant body catcher in college. His talent and athleticism were never a question. If the Chargers can teach him the finer skills of being an NFL receiver, the sky is the limit. Here he is elevating over a smaller cornerback to highpoint the ball and make the catch in the end zone.
The Chargers were a dream landing spot for Johnston because he would have an opportunity to shine right away over weaker defenders. He will be catching passes from an elite quarterback in a division that will make for plenty of shootouts with the Chiefs and Broncos under a pass-heavy play-caller.
Herbert attempted 699 passes last year. As crazy as it sounds, that number could go up with the addition of a stud rookie receiver and an explosive, high-octane play-caller. Herbert has made it widely known that he is pleased with the team's new weapon.
Allen and Williams will still be ahead of Johnston in the target pecking order, but they are both no strangers to the injury bug. We never like to predict injuries, but should one of them go down, Johnston would become a weekly WR3. His current ADP is WR47 behind players like Brandin Cooks, Michael Thomas, and Kadarius Toney. But I prefer Johnston, and you would be wise to add him to your receiver depth during your drafts this summer.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
UPDATE: JSN has a small fracture in his wrist and could be out for the first few weeks of the season. This will undoubtedly tank his ADP. But if you have an Injured Reserve spot in your leagues, I would still be trying to draft him in the later rounds.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba out of Ohio State is the best wide receiver prospect in this class. I don't think that anyone would disagree that Garrett Wilson (2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year) and Chris Olave were elite wide receiver prospects out of Ohio State. Wilson was drafted at 10 overall by the New York Jets and the Saints traded up from 16 to 11 to draft Olave.
Now, here is the funny thing: in the middle of the 2021 NCAA season, the three Buckeye wide receivers were asked who was the best athlete out of the three, and they all unanimously said Smith-Njigba. Wilson and Olave were headed to the NFL Draft so they had no reason not to say themselves, but they all agreed it was JSN.
Do you know who else said JSN was better than Wilson and Olave? Their wide receiver coach Brian Hartline. Since Hartline joined the Buckeyes, he has recruited and coached the best wide receivers in the country. He was recently asked who the best ones were. Obviously, Marvin Harrison Jr. was number one, but JSN came in at number two above Wilson, Olave, and Terry McLaurin.
Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud also referred to JSN as "the best route runner I have ever played with in my life." JSN is a route-running savant. Every step he takes is calculated and deliberate. He wins at the line of scrimmage, using his lightning-quick feet and flawless releases to throw the defender off balance from the jump.
His short-area quickness and change of direction are indisputably the best in this class. In fact, his 6.57 3-cone time (97th percentile) was the sixth fastest time of the last decade. His 3.93 short shuttle time (99th percentile) was the fastest time since 2014 and the fourth fastest time since 2007. These skills are on full display in this clip where JSN inconceivably stays in bounds and turns upfield at full speed.
On top of his lethal footwork, JSN possesses the best hands in this draft class. He is a natural hands catcher with unbelievable mid-air body control. This is one of the most ridiculous catches and displays of body control you will ever see.
Want to see more hands?
Besides the elite talent that JSN possesses, his landing spot in Seattle is beautiful. The Seahawks took him with the 20th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and he figures to be a factor right away. In his first year leading the Seahawks, quarterback Geno Smith attempted 572 passes, more than Russell Wilson has attempted in any season.
That number could go up this year with another year in the system and the addition of an elite weapon like JSN. D.K. Metcalf is the clear alpha in the Seahawks' wide receiver room. But Tyler Lockett is no spring chicken at 31 years old and could be surpassed by JSN in the target pecking order as the season progresses.
The addition of JSN also solidifies an elite option in the slot, which could allow Lockett to go back to his roots as the deep threat for this squad. If that is the case, expect a ton of targets for JSN, especially on third down. Seattle also led the league in completion percentage (69.74%), which means the targets that he sees will be high-value and catchable targets. Considering how wide open JSN always finds himself, it is possible that Smith's completion percentage actually goes up in 2023.
The Seahawks also find themselves with a schedule that has the potential for a bunch of shootout games. They face the Lions, Cowboys, Ravens, Bengals, Browns, and the Eagles. The team also has the luxury of facing the Cardinals twice, who seem to be in a total rebuild and allowed the second-best passer rating to opposing quarterbacks last year. This team should be throwing early and often, and JSN has the talent and the opportunity to become a favorite target for his quarterback.
His current ADP is WR36, which makes sense in comparison to the players drafted ahead of him. But I prefer JSN over guys like Marquise Brown, George Pickens, and his teammate Tyler Lockett. Brown could be catching passes from Clayton Tune for half the season. Pickens is a deep-threat contested catch receiver who will likely have more downs than ups. Lockett is getting up there in age and is likely to take a significant cut in his target share with the addition of Smith-Njigba.
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