X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Fact or Fiction? Looking At ADP Vs. Pre-Draft Rankings Using "Teams In A Vacuum" Concept

Christian McCaffrey - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Glenn analyzes ADP vs. pre-draft rankings using "Teams in a Vacuum" (TIAV) concept. Teams In A Vacuum switches to draft order using Average Draft Position from the past 10 years.

We live in a world of acronyms -- ASAP, GPS, IMHO, LOL, etc. Even in our fantasy football world, we have certain acronyms -- D/ST, FA, IDP, IR, PPR, RZ, ADP, etc.

The other day, a fantasy football buddy said to me: “You’re doing that all wrong. Don’t you know that if you’re drafting, ADP (average draft position) is better to use than PDR (pre-draft rankings)? A cumulative group of people is a more accurate DS (data set) than the so-called experts.”

To add insult to injury, a statistics friend said: “The article about drafting QBs (quarterbacks) is NV (invalid). Using the SD (standard deviation) is correct but base your H-zero (hypothesis) on the f-e (expected frequency) of wins over time, not f-o (observed frequency) each year!” Silly me. In this piece, I'll use the Teams In A Vacuum concept to test whether ADP is greater than pre-draft rankings.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Is ADP > PDR?

The original question was, since QBs score the most points, should you draft them first? The fantasy experts say: “No. Because the top QBs score about the same number of points, you can wait until later rounds to draft a QB.”

The standard deviation calculation mathematically confirms this concept. The smaller the standard deviation, the closer together the values are. In terms of fantasy football, a small standard deviation for a position indicates you can wait on drafting that position because several players will score nearly the same number of points.

Conversely, a large standard deviation means you should draft one of the better players for that position. As you can see from Table 1, running backs (RBs) have the largest standard deviation. Therefore, they should be drafted first. The one exception is that QBs have a larger standard deviation than RBs in 16-team standard leagues.

10-Team Leagues
10-Year Avg Standard Deviation
12-Team Leagues
10-Year Avg Standard Deviation
16-Team Leagues
10-Year Avg Standard Deviation
Standard Scoring
1 QB 34 36 78
2 RBs 44 46 70
2 WRs 29 31 53
1 TE 28 30 43
Point-Per-Reception Scoring
1 QB 34 36 78
2 RBs 55 56 86
2 WRs 40 43 77
1 TE 38 39 64

Table 1 – 2013-2022 Standard Deviation Averages

Teams In A Vacuum (TIAV) is a programming exercise. Changing the input data from draft rankings to the average draft position just entails finding the data. Unfortunately, websites value their draft rankings higher than historical ADP. I was only able to obtain the past 10 years of ADP data.

Standard League Scoring Point-Per-Reception Scoring
Rank Name Position ADP Rank Name Position ADP
1 Jonathan Taylor RB1 1 1 Jonathan Taylor RB1 1
2 Christian McCaffrey RB2 2.5 2 Christian McCaffrey RB2 2
3 Austin Ekeler RB3 3.5 3 Austin Ekeler RB3 3.8
4 Derrick Henry RB4 5 4 Cooper Kupp WR1 4
5 Dalvin Cook RB5 6 5 Derrick Henry RB4 5.3
6 Cooper Kupp WR1 6 6 Justin Jefferson WR2 5.5
7 Najee Harris RB6 6 7 Dalvin Cook RB5 7.5
8 Justin Jefferson WR2 6.5 8 Najee Harris RB6 8
9 Joe Mixon RB7 9.5 9 Ja'Marr Chase WR3 8.3
10 Ja'Marr Chase WR3 11 10 Joe Mixon RB7 10.3
11 Alvin Kamara RB8 12 11 Davante Adams WR4 12.3
12 D'Andre Swift RB9 12.5 12 Stefon Diggs WR5 12.5

Table 2 – 2022 Average Draft Position

For this exercise, TIAV will snake draft teams from the yearly ADP lists, correlate the number of points scored to the corresponding players for that season, and add the teams' points together to see which one is the winner. Because the fantasy artifacts are limited to 300 players and will not include enough Defenses and Kickers, TIAV will contain:

  • 1 QB
  • 2 RBs
  • 2 WRs
  • 1 TE
  • 1 Flex -- best available RB, WR, or TE when the other position is filled

Anyone who has participated in a snake draft knows that QBs are not drafted in the first round. To demonstrate the idea of drafting a QB first, TIAV will draft the best QB from the corresponding year first followed by the rest of the ADP list.

Standard League Scoring Point-Per-Reception League Scoring
Draft Rank Player Name Fan Points Final Pos Rank Draft Rank Player Name Fan Points Final Pos Rank
30 Patrick Mahomes 416 QB1 29 Patrick Mahomes 416 QB1
19 Aaron Jones 189 RB11 19 Tyreek Hill 342 WR2
20 CeeDee Lamb 194 WR6 20 Nick Chubb 258 RB6
40 George Kittle 140 TE2 40 Terry McLaurin 229 WR14
42 Courtland Sutton 95 WR45 42 DJ Moore 199 Flex
60 Dameon Pierce 136 RB28 62 Clyde Edwards-Helaire 98 RB44
61 Dalton Schultz 86 TE9 65 T.J. Hockenson 215 TE2
Team 1 Total 1256 Team 1 Winning Team 1757
 Winning Team = 5 1418

Table 3 – 2022 Teams In A Vacuum 10-Team Leagues – Best QB Drafted First

Similar to using the FantasyPros draft rankings, drafting the best QB first and then using ADP for the rest of the picks produces underwhelming results. The observed results fall very close to the predicted results rather than showing concrete evidence that drafting an elite QB first will always win your league.

As indicated by the standard deviation and the fantasy experts, RBs should be drafted first. If your pick is at the end of the first round and you feel the elite RBs are gone, draft the best tight end or a wide receiver. If you have the last pick, please see the TIAV article on the Zero RB strategy. The one exception is 16-team standard leagues where standard deviation and TIAV show that QBs should be drafted before all other positions.

Standard Winning Years Expected Winning Percentage Actual Winning Percentage
10 Teams 10% 0%
12 Teams 8.30% 0%
16 Teams 2015, 2016, 2020 6.25% 30%
Point-Per-Reception
10 Teams 2017, 2022 10.00% 20%
12 Teams 8.30% 0%
16 Teams 2019 6.25% 10%
8.20% 10%

Table 4 – Teams In A Vacuum Using ADP – Best QB Drafted First Results

 

Is There A Favorable Draft Position?

In addition to starting with the best QB, TIAV also drafted a “conventional” set of leagues using ADP as the draft order input. The exercise involved 10-team, 12-team, and 16-team leagues in both standard and PPR formats. In other words, 760 teams were drafted for this exercise with 60 winners.

Number Drafted Per Simulation Winners Per Simulation Simulation Names Number Of Simulations Teams Drafted Total League Winners
10 teams * 10 years 10 QB Using Draft Rankings 3 1140 90
12 teams * 10 years 10 Zero RB 2 760 60
16 teams * 10 years 10 QB Using ADP 2 760 60
380 Teams 30 Winners 2660 Teams 210 Winners

Table 5 – Teams In A Vacuum Historical Data

On top of the simulations used in the articles, there have been thousands of TIAV leagues drafted and none have displayed evidence of a favored draft position. Because players score a random number of fantasy points, predicting the winning draft position proves difficult to impossible. Fantasy football drafts are fluid; therefore, make the best pick with the information you have at draft time.

Graph 1 – Teams In A Vacuum using ADP – All League Winners

So is the average draft position greater than pre-draft rankings? Using ADP as the input for snake drafting, Teams In A Vacuum proves that the results come out the same.

Standard deviation and the fantasy experts tell you to draft running backs first and both have proven correct. TIAV proves that ADP equals PDR. Above all, TIAV has not found a favorable draft position. Football players score a random number of fantasy points so there is no advantageous location in the draft order. Be happy with the spot you’ve drawn and make each pick count!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Saquon Barkley

in Line for More Receiving Work in 2025?
Juan Soto

Back in Lineup Against Giants
Mack Hollins

Patriots Have Big Plans for Mack Hollins?
Jalin Hyatt

Adds Weight Over the Offseason
Keenan Allen

Visiting Chargers on Friday
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Reinstated and Starting on Friday
George Springer

Goes on Concussion Injured List
Dyami Brown

"Explosive" in Jaguars Camp
James Proche II

Impressing in Titans Camp
Kyle Williams

"Up and Down" in Training Camp Practices
Dallas Cowboys

Micah Parsons Requests Trade Out of Dallas
Kenny Pickett

Returns to Practice in Limited Capacity
JoJo Romero

the Top Candidate for Saves in St. Louis
Braelon Allen

Returns to Jets Practice
Xavier Worthy

Avoids Concussion
Nolan Arenado

Going on Injured List With Shoulder Injury
DeVonta Smith

Misses Fourth Practice
Dontayvion Wicks

Takes Part in Friday's Practice
Jayden Reed

Practicing on Friday
Conor McGregor

Enters UFC Testing Pool
Emanuel Wilson

Suffers Leg Injury on Friday
Bryce Young

and Starters Will Play First Two Preseason Games
Ja'Tavion Sanders

"Shining" in Practice
New York Jets

Quinnen Williams is Week-to-Week with Calf Injury
Dallas Cowboys

Micah Parson Considering Drastic Measures Amid Contract Negotiations
Grayson Rodriguez

Considering Having Surgery
Cam Skattebo

Missing Team Drills, Being Managed by Giants
Calvin Ridley

Won't Practice on Friday
Devin Williams

Yankees Plan to Keep Devin Williams in Closer's Role
HyunSung Park

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Tatsuro Taira

Set For UFC Vegas 108 Main Event
Mateusz Rębecki

Mateusz Rebecki Looks For His Second Consecutive Win
Chris Duncan

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Elves Brener

Looks For His Fourth UFC Win
Esteban Ribovics

Set For UFC Vegas 108 Main Card Bout
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos Aims To Bounce Back
Karol Rosa

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Nora Cornolle

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Neil Magny

Returns At UFC Vegas 108
Kevin Vallejos

Set To Open Up UFC Vegas 108 Main Card
Danny Silva

Set For His Third UFC Fight
Mikal Bridges

Signs Extension with Knicks
Jackson Chourio

Expected to Go on Injured List With Hamstring Strain
Jonathan Aranda

Rays Hope Jonathan Aranda Can Return in September
Shelby Miller

Brewers Acquire Shelby Miller
José Caballero

Jose Caballero Shipped to the Bronx
Bailey Falter

Traded to Royals
Charlie Morton

Headed to Detroit
Camilo Doval

Yankees Acquire Camilo Doval
Griffin Jax

Traded to Tampa Bay
Connor McDavid

Oilers Hope to Finalize Connor McDavid's Contract Extension Soon
Willi Castro

Joining Cubs
BUF

Devon Levi Re-Signs With Sabres for Two Years
Merrill Kelly

Rangers to Acquire Merrill Kelly
Martin Pospisil

Signs Three-Year Extension
Ramón Laureano

Ramon Laureano Heading to San Diego
Ryan O'Hearn

Padres Acquire Ryan O'Hearn From Orioles
Jesús Sánchez

Jesus Sanchez Traded to the Astros
Carlos Correa

Astros Acquire Carlos Correa From the Twins
Dario Šarić

Dario Saric Hoping to Have Meaningful Role with Kings
Donte DiVincenzo

to Skip EuroBasket Due to Injury
Ayo Dosunmu

Set to Remain in Chicago
Malevy Leons

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Thunder
Daeqwon Plowden

Kings Pick Up Daeqwon Plowden on Two-Way Deal
Bryce McGowens

Signs Two-Way Deal with Pelicans
Jonathan Kuminga

Declines Latest Offers from Golden State
Gary Woodland

Eyeing Strong Finish to Reach Playoffs
Max McGreevy

Chasing a Miracle at Wyndham
Stephan Jaeger

a Solid Value Play at Wyndham Championship
Max Homa

Fighting to Salvage Disappointing Season
Nicolai Hojgaard

a Sleeper at Wyndham Championship
Rickie Fowler

Riding Quiet Momentum Into Wyndham
Brian Campbell

a Wild Card at Wyndham Championship
Akshay Bhatia

Looking to Flip the Script at Wyndham Championship
Aaron Rai

Finishes Tied For 34th at Open Championship
Andrew Novak

Finishes Tied For 63rd at Open Championship
Hideki Matsuyama

Finishes Tied For 16th at Open Championship
Kurt Kitayama

Wins 3M Open
Tom Kim

Finishes Tied For 28th at 3M Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Misses Cut at 3M Open
Max Greyserman

Misses Cut at 3M Open
Jordan Spieth

Looks to End Regular Season on a High Note at Wyndham Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick

Finishes Tied For Fourth at Open Championship
Eric Cole

Misses Cut at 3M Open
Keith Mitchell

Needs a Big Week at Wyndham Championship
Robert MacIntyre

is the Perfect Kind of Ball-Striker for Wyndham Championship
Charlie McAvoy

Ready to Go for Next Season
Dylan Samberg

Agrees to Three-Year Contract with Jets
Michael Kim

Needs More Solid Finishes
NBA

Thanasis Antetokounmpo Added to Greece Training Camp Roster for EuroBasket 2025
Los Angeles Clippers

Patrick Baldwin Jr. Waived by Clippers
Josh Green

May Not be Ready for Start of Hornets Training Camp
NBA

Thomas Bryant Set to Move to Greece
Cam Thomas

Nets Far Apart in Contract Talks
Kristaps Porzingis

Feeling "Great" Ahead of New Season
Chris Paul

Hints He Could Extend His Career Beyond the 2025-26 Season
Brandon Miller

Close to 100 Percent
Jayden Struble

Canadiens Lock Up Jayden Struble for Two Years
Robert Whittaker

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Reinier de Ridder

Gets Split-Decision Win
Conor Timmins

Avoids Salary Arbitration with Two-Year Deal
Marcus McGhee

Drops Decision At UFC Abu Dhabi
Toronto Raptors

Colin Castleton Waived by Raptors on Monday
Petr Yan

Extends Win Streak
Marc-Andre Barriault

Suffers Decision Loss
Shara Magomedov

Gets Back In The Win Column
Jose Ochoa

Dominated At UFC Abu Dhabi
MMA

Asu Almbayev Dominates At UFC Abu Dhabi
Kyle Larson

Falls Short of Back-To-Back Victories at Indianapolis
Denny Hamlin

Rallies Into Third Place At Indianapolis
Chase Briscoe

Pit Strategies End up Failing Chase Briscoe at Indianapolis
Ty Gibbs

Wins NASCAR's Inaugural In-Season Challenge Tournament
Ryan Preece

Finishes Fourth but Loses Ground to Playoff Cutline
Brad Keselowski

Has Good Strategy, but Not Enough to Win
Ryan Blaney

Bails from Hail Mary Strategy Attempt but Recovers to Finish Seventh
Tyler Reddick

Eliminated from Brickyard 400 in Crash After Top Five Run
Chicago Bulls

Billy Donovan Agrees to Contract Extension with Chicago
Erik Jones

Is Erik Jones Worth Rostering At Indianapolis This Week?
Carson Hocevar

Is Carson Hocevar Worth Rostering For Indianapolis DFS Lineups?
NASCAR

Could A.J. Allmendinger be A Solid Tournament DFS Option?
Zane Smith

Is a Respectable Value Option for Indianapolis Despite Low Experience
Cole Custer

Is A Solid Value Option for Indianapolis DFS Lineups
Riley Herbst

Is an Unfavorable DFS Option for Indianapolis Lineups
Zeev Buium

Aims for Big Role Next Season
NHL

Conor Sheary Signs Tryout Deal with Rangers
Denny Hamlin

an Easy DFS Target After Wreck in Qualifying
Arvid Soderblom

Agrees to Two-Year Deal with Blackhawks
Kyle Larson

Will Start 13th to Defend Brickyard 400 Crown
Chase Briscoe

on Pole for Brickyard as Momentum Continues to Build
Ryan Blaney

Learned a Lot in Practice at Indianapolis
Brad Keselowski

Should Be Very Strong at Indianapolis
NASCAR

Could Bubba Wallace Challenge for a Brickyard 400 Win on Sunday?
Ryan Preece

Don't Forget About Ryan Preece at Indianapolis
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF