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Thunder Dan's MLB DFS prop picks for RIVAL fantasy contests for Saturday, July 29th, 2023. Sign up for RIVAL fantasy and use his MLB DFS prop picks to win money.
Welcome to another edition of RIVAL Fantasy picks for MLB! We will focus on two fantasy contest types offered on RIVAL - Challenges and FantasyBook (Over/Under) for MLB games on Saturday, July 29th.
Challenges are H2H matchups between two MLB players. You choose which one you think will score the most fantasy points, then place a bet to back it. If another user decides on the other player at any time before the contest, the bet is on! If your player scores more fantasy points, you win 1.8x your bet. FantasyBook is more traditional over/under DFS prop picks - whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 5x your bet).
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RIVAL Challenge Picks
Aaron Nola OVER Reid Detmers
You could argue that Detmers is having as good or even a slightly better season than Nola so far as Detmers has surpassed expectations and bit and Nola has underperformed compared to what we have come to expect from him.
However, I definitely prefer Nola today in his matchup against the Pirates. Pittsburgh has been striking out a lot and we saw Nola's teammate Zack Wheeler whiff 11 Buccos last night as very recent evidence of that trend. Detmers will have his work cut out for him against a Toronto team that has six RHH in the lineup and their biggest power bats hitting from that side of the plate.
Shohei Ohtani OVER Freddie Freeman
Going against Freddie Freeman is not something I would do with many hitters, especially when you consider that Freeman has an excellent matchup against Luke Weaver and the Reds today.
But Ohtani is just playing on a different plane of existence right now. He homered off Toronto's ace Kevin Gausman last night which accounted for the only LA run against him. Today, he will face Alek Manoah who has had a miserable season and has been absolutely tortured by left-handed hitters. I won't be surprised if Ohtani homers again and adds to his home run lead.
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RIVAL Over/Under Picks
Julio Rodriguez (OVER), Shohei Ohtani (OVER), James Paxton (OVER)
Let's roll with a few hot hitters here, J-Rod and Ohtani, who are both in good spots. Rodriguez has performed better against RHP this season and is facing a rookie, Brandon Pfaadt, who has really struggled. Pfaadt is allowing a massive .417 wOBA, 371 ISO, 42% FB%, and a 19% barrel right to righties so far as a major league pitcher.
I mentioned Ohtani already in the matchups section, but as a reminder he has three homers in his last two games and an absurd .464 wOBA and .389 ISO against RHP this season. Manoah is still quite bad, even after his stint in the minors. We should attack him with confidence assuming that Ohtani's cramping from the last few days isn't an issue.
Paxton is one of my favorite pitchers on the slate today. He bounced back against the Mets his last time out tossing six solid innings with seven strikeouts. He will face a Giants team today that has been absolutely terrible against lefties lately with a 59 wRC+ (30th in MLB) over the last month.
Pete Alonso (OVER), Ketel Marte (OVER), Emmet Sheehan (UNDER)
I really can't pass up the opportunity to bet on Pete Alonso whenever he's facing Patrick Corbin. If you don't look at BvP as part of your process, that's fine, but Alonso has some of the best results that you will see from a hitter against a pitcher with a pretty solid sample size. Consider that he's gone 14-40 in his career against Corbin with five home runs and you'll see why I love him in this spot. He mashes lefties and he also hits sinker/slider pitchers really well which is why he has always given Corbin such problems.
Marte is a switch hitter, and he's typically better from the right side of the plate. But this year he's really hitting well from the left side of the plate and has amassed a .381 wOBA and .246 ISO against RHP. He faces Seattle rookie Bryan Woo, who has some of the widest splits of any pitcher this season. Woo has been tough on RHH but has allowed a massive .556 wOBA and .455 ISO to lefties.
Ready for an under? Sheehan is averaging only around 9 fantasy points per start this season in his rookie campaign and it looks likely he could be demoted to Triple-A after this start since the Dodgers acquired Lance Lynn yesterday. He has to face a really good Reds team, too, so I could easily see him getting knocked around in this one and an early hook.
Play the MLB FantasyBook Over/Under and Challenges Contests Now on RIVAL Fantasy
Good luck, RotoBallers, and thanks for reading!
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