DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Genesis Scottish Open Golf Advice (2023)

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Genesis Scottish Open

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 10% off using code BALLER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Genesis Scottish Open

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

• Join the community! There you will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with me.

TeeOffSports membership

• $149.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
• You can also try things out for $9.99 per week.

 

Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 12

 

Last Five Winners Of The Genesis Scottish Open

2022	Xander Schauffele	-7
2021	Min Woo Lee	-18
2020	Aaron Rai	-11
2019	Bernd Wiesberger	-22

 

Expected Cut-Line

2022
2021
2020
2019
2018

 

Renaissance Club

7,237 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Fescue

What do you get when you mix 75 DP World Tour players with a course that doesn't have ShotLink data? A bad fucking time, if you ask me.

It is no secret to anyone reading this article that I favor the standard contests that will let me extract numbers in my preferred fashion of long-term information over the wishy-washy profiles inside my sheet on about half the field. I have never found these mixed-field tournaments to be overly conducive to building a bankroll. However, the real problem stems from the inability to get concrete answers because of the lack of trackable returns.

I believe we can somewhat extrapolate a stylistic blueprint when we dive into some of your more basic expectations. Nonetheless, it is a double-edged sword when you consider that this course's real defense and playability will come down to the weather.

When looking into the track, Tom Doak designed this property in 2008. Tricky green complexes come into effect on most of these massively oversized greens. That is a quirk we see implemented by Doak quite frequently, but it is the Fescue texture to this particular surface that makes everything much more challenging because of the languid feel players will experience on their putts.

The ability to handle a slower surface and scramble when needed is what makes a good Links-style player, but it goes back to my original point that weather lands as the ultimate decider for the week. We see that come shockingly into the forefront when highlighting the erratic nature of winning scores over the years.

That said, I don't want to over/understate the track's difficulty. We know birdie chances can come in bunches from past showings. The three par-fives are gettable. The par threes are long but have some danger removed because of the wide-open greens. And the par-fours provide a mixed bag of both distance and scoreable chances, something we see when comparing the disparity of length between these holes.

Overall, golfers that can supply a solid tee-to-green account of themselves, especially with their irons and short games, will be at an advantage. I also would be looking for dependable play in and around bunkers because of the potential landmines looming at every turn. Still, above all else, I would be cognizant of keeping an eye on the weather and waiting for tee times before locking in too many decisions.

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat	Renaissance	PGA Average
Driving Distance	294	283
Driving Accuracy	48%	61%
GIR Percentage	60%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	53%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.88	0.55

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (35%)

 

Strokes Gained Total Wind (7.5%)

 

Strokes Gained Total Hard Scoring (10%)

Weighted Scoring (15%)

 

Weighted BoB% + Bogey Avoidance (12.5%)

 

Weighted Scrambling (20%)

 

 

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

 

Top 30 In All Six Categories: I cut down the criteria to get more precise.

This Week:

Xander Schauffele	1
Patrick Cantlay	2
Scottie Scheffler	3
Tyrrell Hatton	4
Max Homa	5
Matthew Fitzpatrick	6
Rory McIlroy	7
Justin Rose	14
Sungjae Im	16

I will start updating these weekly on my model.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Golfer	Odds	Risk	Win
Tyrrell Hatton	24	0.3	7.2
Max Homa	45	0.16	7.2
Tom Kim	60	0.12	7.2
Thomas Detry	175	0.07	12.25

I know...'Big D' is back.

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

It has become the standard weekly answer of trying to handicap a board where most of the names in the $10,000 section are inside the top handful of my sheet. A lot of this comes down to gut and feel before we mix that in with ownership later in the week.

Xander Schauffele ($10,400) 

Any difference early in the week appears to be miniature when we look into all four of these names grading inside the top four of the upside portion of my model.

Honestly, I don't think you are making the "wrong" choice by playing one over the rest, but the $1,200 discount from Scheffler to Schauffele was enough to push him into being my favorite play in the section.

Xander has produced back-to-back top 10 finishes at this course over the past two years, and the third-place grade from expected strokes gained total was a massive perk when you consider he ended up being the only man from the top 10 of that category to also land in the top 10 for expected putting and scrambling.

Schauffele's short game is elite, and the reduction in strokes gained off the tee only helps to propel him further up my list of plausible winners. I have decided to save my outright wager on him until next week at the Open Championship, but the ceiling might be ready to explode in the next few contests.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Tyrrell Hatton ($9,800) 

I'd be cautious with taking that ownership in my model at face value. We will see those totals shift drastically over the next few days. However, with Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood and Wyndham Clark all looking popular, I will go with the one I like the most since all three are playable at the right percentage.

Hatton is a Links specialist who thrives on these scrambling-heavy tracks, and the recent form adds to the intrigue when pinpointing his third-place grade in strokes gained total over the last 24 rounds.

In my opinion, this shows how much better DFS has gotten over the last few years because I do believe Hatton is good chalk. Barring some unforeseen 30%+ number, I do expect to keep him in my player pool.

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Max Homa ($8,800) 

We essentially have gone three consecutive tournaments where Max Homa has massively underachieved with his short game compared to his baseline projection. Two of those resulted in surprising missed cut appearances after my model thought he should have been inside the top 30, and while his 21st at the Rocket Mortgage got him back on track, even that finish didn't meet what could have resulted in top five potential.

I remain under the belief that Homa is about to pop in a big way, and a venue that reduces off-the-tee prowess and enhances his typically stout short game might be the perfect combination to put the pieces back together.

Sungjae Im ($8,600) 

My model views Sungjae Im as a high-ceiling/low-floor choice because of a statistical profile that outweighs his recent form.

If the ownership starts to increase, I will likely look elsewhere since we have numerous choices in the $8,000 range. Still, Im's ability to play in the wind and avoid mistakes is ideal for success at Renaissance Club.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and create the possibility to weigh the data to create your own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Here are the top players from the $7,000s

Sahith Theegala ($7,600) 

Sixteenth in my model for weighted scoring and 13th in three-putt avoidance, Sahith Theegala experiences a 16-spot increase in expected proximity for Renaissance over a standard course on tour.

Is that enough of a boost to win this tournament since he still struggled to explode in any one area of my sheet? I am not sure. But the price tag doesn't need a victory to pay off a salary and ownership percentage that are both extremely low.

Thomas Detry ($7,500) 

'Big D' fooled us by prematurely exiting the Rocket Mortgage a few weeks ago, but I remain undeterred and bullish on his potential.

Detry exceeded his baseline expectation in strokes gained total by 30 spots in my model, and the four made cuts in four tries at this track will add a secondary answer that Links golf might present the blueprint we were looking for in Detroit.

Alex Noren ($7,200) 

Noren placed eighth in three-putt percentage and 14th in strokes gained total in the wind. That one-two punch screams success on this sort of venue.

 

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

Taylor Montgomery ($6,800) 

I don't love the lack of upside presented in the $6,000s. We do have some decent made-cut potential in a few locations, but I prefer shooting for the moon when entering this range.

Montgomery's short game is a large differentiator if the irons can take an extensive turn. I wouldn't trust that being the case, but top-30 in expected scoring placed him next to only Kevin Yu, Aaron Baddeley and Harry Hall when talking cheaper options.

If choosing between the four, I prefer Montgomery's potential over the group.

 

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt

— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks