Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (6/28/23)

Thunder Dan's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 6/28/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.

It's another Wednesday in the middle of June and if you're looking for something to get you over the hump this week, maybe it's a big night of MLB betting action. I'm Thunder Dan and I bet on baseball every day - whether it's game totals, money lines, or player props - I always have some skin in the game!

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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, June 28, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games!

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Giants @ Blue Jays

O/U: 8.5 | ML: TOR -120
TOR: Trevor Richards | SFG: Logan Webb

The Blue Jays got a 6-inning, 12-strikeout performance from Kevin Gausman last night against his old team...and they still managed to lose 3-0 to the surging Giants. These teams have been heading in opposite directions lately with Toronto posting only a 5-5 record over their last ten games and San Francisco going 8-2 in their last ten-game stretch - which included a sweep of the Dodgers and series won against their other two division rivals San Diego and Arizona.

Logan Webb, Dirty Changeups. 👌👌 pic.twitter.com/vdSUmpPNHj

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 24, 2023

I will keep this blurb short because I have three games I am recommending today and this one comes down to pitching. Logan Webb is the Giants ace and is a guy who is incredibly tough on RHH with his sinker/slider/change-up pitch mix. The Blue Jays are going to roll out six righties tonight and they've scored just 4.1 runs per game over the last month. This offense was supposed to be elite, yet they have been very mediocre and prone to being shut down by good pitchers. The Jays will counter with Trevor Richards as their opener but he's not likely to pitch too long as he's not stretched out entirely. Richards has been good, but the Giants are likely to get some middle relievers after him and they've been able to scratch out enough offense lately to support their starters during this stretch.

Give me the hotter team with the better starter on the road at even money.

Pick: Giants ML (+100) DraftKings Sportsbook

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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Padres @ Pirates

O/U: 8 | ML: SDP -155
SDP: Blake Snell | PIT: Mitch Keller

So last night was a weird game as the Pirates broke loose for 9 runs and a big win as underdogs, but it felt pretty fluky considering the Padres ended up throwing a rookie starter last minute as Yu Darvish was scratched with an illness. Today's game projects to be a lot lower-scoring as both teams have their most effective pitcher on the bump today with the red-hot Blake Snell facing off against the biggest surprise of the season - Mitch Keller.

Blake Snell, 97mph ⛽️

5th K thru 3. pic.twitter.com/eytWwlLfwG

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 22, 2023

This is simple for me once again, I am not overthinking it. Both offenses have been pretty "meh" over the last month and the Pirates have been arguably downright BAD, scoring only 3.5 runs per game. Snell has been blowing it by teams and the Pirates have had their struggles against LHP lately, too. Hopefully, we get the best version of Mitch Keller here as he has the tougher assignment against the Padres offense, but he's been pretty consistent all season and I am sure he is looking forward to the challenge of a pitchers' duel.

I think the Padres prevail, but we see them win this one 3-2 or something like that. I have it modeled well below eight runs today and again, we are getting this one at even money so it's hard to pass up!

Pick: UNDER 8 runs (+100), DraftKings Sportsbook

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Cubs

O/U: 8 | ML: PHI -125
PHI: Aaron Nola | CHC: Drew Smyly

It's pretty wild to see Aaron Nola as only a -125 favorite over a veteran journeyman like Drew Smyly. That speaks a bit to how inconsistent Nola (and the Phillies in general) has been this year but also to the fact that Smyly has been sneaky good and has settled in as a pretty reliable arm at the back end of the Cubs rotation.

Aaron Nola, Wicked 93mph Sinker. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/m8nAyJjuI3

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 22, 2023

Nola is still a much better pitcher and is coming off a very solid appearance against the Braves in which he shut them out over six frames with five strikeouts. Shutting the Braves out seems like a miracle right now since they are demolishing baseballs at an astonishing rate. The Phillies have struggled against lefties a bit, so Smyly presents a challenge for their offense. But I am banking on another big outing from the Phillies' ace Nola here, who struck out 10 Cubs over seven innings back in late May when he last saw them. Bet the over on his strikeouts at 5.5 today, too, we are all in on Nola and the Phils!

Pick: Phillies ML (-125), DraftKings Sportsbook

Good luck, Rotoballers!

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