The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Who to Consider Dropping for Fantasy Baseball (Week 22)

The Cut List for Week 22 of 2025. Jamie analyzes potential fantasy baseball busts, overvalued players, and injured players who you may want to consider dropping.

Welcome back to The Cut List as we head into Week 22 of the 2025 season. For every add, there is usually also a drop. For those unfamiliar, this is our weekly article examining players whom fantasy managers might consider cutting from their teams and struggling players who warrant a closer look.

We'll examine players worthy of a drop, those worth monitoring for potential replacements, and individuals on the hot seat who are worth holding onto ... for now. Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone.

As the season rolls on, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord chat rooms, or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo). Maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Zack Wheeler - SP, Philadelphia Phillies - 99% rostered

After being a frontrunner for the NL Cy Young Award, Wheeler started to struggle in July. In his last six starts, Wheeler had a 4.54 ERA and didn't manage to complete more than six innings in any of them. He did so in eight of his first 18 starts of 2025.

Something didn't seem right with Wheeler, who had reportedly been experiencing shoulder stiffness. Then came the dreaded IL (injured list) stint after it was discovered that Wheeler had a blood clot. Surgery was successful in removing the blood clot. Until yesterday, that's all we knew.

On Saturday, the Phillies announced that Wheeler has been recommended to undergo thoracic outlet decompression surgery. With a six-to eight-month timeline for his recovery, Wheeler is out for the remainder of 2025 and isn't likely to be ready for the start of the 2026 season.

Phillies medical update on Zack Wheeler pic.twitter.com/JnnEAz4cMZ

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) August 23, 2025

The best possible outcome seems to be that Wheeler can recover this offseason and be ready early in the 2026 season. We may not see Wheeler pitch again until near the All-Star Break. We'll find out as the offseason progresses. What we do know is that Wheeler is not worth holding in redraft leagues.

Verdict: Wheeler is still worth hanging onto in dynasty leagues. Even if his recovery takes a little longer than eight months, half a season of one of the best pitchers in baseball has value. There's no reason to hold onto Wheeler in redraft leagues.

Josh Hader - RP, Houston Astros - 90% rostered

Hader also found himself placed on the IL due to a shoulder issue. While it isn't as serious as Wheeler's injury, it still seems highly unlikely that we will see Hader pitch again in the regular season. Even Hader doesn't believe he'll be back before the playoffs.

Josh Hader said it would take him three weeks to build up after not throwing for the next three weeks, so don’t expect to see him in the regular season. Playoffs remain a possibility.

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) August 16, 2025

Normally, a player will downplay their injury. They will always be confident of a short stay on the IL and a quick return. So when a player comes out publicly to say he won't be able to pitch again for six weeks, it's somewhat refreshing.

Yordan Alvarez's fantasy managers will attest to how frustrating it has been hearing injury updates from the Astros. In the case of Hader, there doesn't appear to be any reason to distrust the news. At best, Hader might return for the final weekend of the regular season, as a "playoff tuneup".

Verdict: Hader isn't worth hanging on to in redraft leagues. When a player rules themselves out of pitching again before the regular season ends, it's pretty definitive. The Astros will want to ensure Hader is healthy for a likely playoff run, and there's no reason to hold on to him in redraft leagues.

Hold For Now

Nick Castellanos - OF, Philadelphia Phillies - 79% rostered

Few players seem to frustrate fantasy managers more than Castellanos. He doesn't help matters by having lengthy streaks of hitting .202/.235/.333, like he has done since the All-Star Break. But the one thing Castellanos has been able to do is tally the counting stats. For the most part.

The graph below shows Castellanos' numbers per month. As we can see, Castellanos has consistently hit home runs and scored runs whether he's been hitting well himself or not. Until August, he same could be said for driving in runs.

His August struggles have seen Castellanos drop down the batting order this week. While that will harm his fantasy value, the Phillies' offense is potent enough to minimize the impact. The Phillies rank sixth in runs scored (110) in August and eighth since July 1 (224).

Two extra base hits last Sunday may have sparked a revival of form. Castellanos then went 2-for-4 on Monday, but a hitless day on Tuesday led to him sitting out Wednesday, with an off day Thursday. Other than the odd rest day, there isn't any reason to believe we'll see Castellanos out of the lineup often.

Castellanos bounced back with a 3-for-4 performance on Friday, making it three multi-hit performances in four games. It was also the third time in his last four starts in which Castellanos scored two runs. August is set to be Castellanos' best month for run scoring, despite his lowly batting average.

Although I'm still holding Castellanos, I would consider moving on in shallower leagues, or those with three starting outfield spots. We know what he's capable of, and the Phillies' offense has been consistently scoring runs. As long as Castellanos doesn't start sitting out more games, he's worth hanging on to.

Yusei Kikuchi - SP, Los Angeles Angels - 77% rostered

Kikuchi began 2025 as one of the steals of the draft. At the end of June, he had a 2.75 ERA (17 starts). That only translated into three wins, as the Angels seemed destined to continue their run of playoff dodging. But fantasy managers who took Kikuchi as their SP5 in drafts were feeling pretty good.

Then came July, and regression hit. In his subsequent nine starts, Kikuchi had a 5.05 ERA. Kikuchi only completed six innings once in that stretch, although he did still manage to double his win tally. A reminder of how much luck plays into getting pitching wins in fantasy.

While it appeared as though Kikuchi was starting to struggle and lose his fantasy relevance, that was not the case. The graph below shows how Kikuchi's underlying numbers remained consistent during the struggles. If anything, all we witnessed was some natural regression after being lucky to start the season.

Kikuchi had a 4.19 xFIP, 4.26 SIERA, and 2.75 ERA in his first 17 starts. His next nine starts saw Kikuchi have a 4.02 xFIP, 3.99 SIERA, and a 5.05 ERA. Having consistently better underlying numbers than his ERA in recent seasons, it's been a nice change of pace to see that reverse.

Even while his ERA was climbing, Kikuchi's strikeout rate (K%) remained consistent. He had a 24.1% K% in his first 17 starts and a 23.8% K% in his next nine starts. Kikuchi's 153 Ks this year rank tied-19th most, helping to offset the lack of wins his fantasy managers have endured.

On Wednesday, Kikuchi had his best outing since June. He allowed just one run over seven innings against the Reds, although Kikuchi did only strike out four batters. And he didn't factor in the decision, leaving Kikuchi with a 6-8 W-L record from his 27 starts this year.

Kikuchi had a similar outing to start August, allowing one run over six innings. He gave up four runs in each of his subsequent two starts before Wednesday. It's still too early to trust Kikuchi completely, but provided he doesn't start to get blown up in his upcoming outings, Kikuchi is worth holding on to.

On the Hot Seat

Mike Trout - OF, Los Angeles Angels - 94% rostered

This one feels weird. I didn't think Trout would ever be under consideration for inclusion on The Cut List. But it goes to show that injuries take their toll on everyone. Although this year Trout has played 100 games for only the second time since 2019, he's still had his customary IL stint.

A knee injury saw Trout miss almost the entire month of May. Trout has now missed 410 of the last 777 games since the start of the 2021 season. And the wear-and-tear might explain why Trout has shown little power recently, hitting just one homer and three doubles in his last 21 games.

In fact, Trout's power has been steadily regressing over the course of the season. Nine of Trout's 20 homers this year came before he landed on the IL on May 2. It's also telling that Trout hasn't played the outfield since returning from injury.

Trout did hit six home runs in July, with his .495 SLG (slugging percentage) last month being his best of the season. Over the course of the season, Trout has been making hard contact. He's almost been a "three true outcomes" hitter this year.

Trout's 16.6% BB% is his best since 2021 (when he only played 36 games). His 29.8% K% is the highest of Trout's career. And as we can see from Trout's Statcast Profile, when he does make contact, it is normally good contact.

You could argue that Trout is being rostered for name value. While that may hold some element of truth, there is a justified reason for it. We know what Trout is capable of. Even this version of Trout can have a monster month.

Only 25 players have hit nine or more home runs in a calendar month this year. And Trout is only one of two hitters to have done it while having a sub-.200 batting average. Being on the brink of 400 career home runs is weighing on him, and the floodgates will open when Trout reaches that milestone.

If you drafted Trout this year, you should be happy you've had 100 games and 20 home runs from him. And as long as he's healthy enough to play, Trout is someone you roster. Unless that changes, you persevere and remain confident that he will finish the season strong.

Reader Requests

As always, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone you want to include on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread or in the RotoBaller Discord chat rooms. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X, and we'll endeavor to cover some requests each week.

Seth Lugo - SP, Kansas City Royals - 79% rostered

Lugo had a standout season in 2024. He posted a 3.00 in 33 starts with the Royals and was a consensus top-50 starting pitcher taken in 2025 drafts. Until recently, Lugo was on track for a repeat. He had a 3.03 ERA at the end of July. His four August starts have seen Lugo's ERA increase to 3.73.

Lugo still has impressive numbers on the year. He's sporting an 8-6 W-L record, 3.73 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 115 Ks (137 2/3 innings). His recent struggles are concerning and not entirely unexpected. Despite his 3.03 ERA at the end of July, Lugo had a 4.19 xFIP and 4.18 SIERA.

This is beginning to sound similar to Kikuchi. There are, however, two notable differences. While regression was expected, Lugo has a 6.09 xFIP and 6.12 SIERA in August. His underlying numbers are better than his 8.05 ERA this month, but are still really bad.

And Lugo doesn't strike out enough batters to offset that. He had a 21.7% K% in 2024. This year, Lugo has a 20.2% K%, which ranks in the 35th percentile. In his last four starts, Lugo has walked (12) more batters than he has struck out (11).

That is why I'd be less willing to hold Lugo than I would be Kikuchi. Lugo is still worth holding in deeper leagues. But he's scheduled to face the Tigers in his next two starts. Detroit has already faced him twice this year, scoring seven runs in 10 innings off Lugo.

You probably wouldn't be starting Lugo again until September. Unless strikeouts is a category you don't have to focus on in the final month of the season, in shallower leagues, there should be better streaming options on waivers than starting Lugo.

Brandon Pfaadt - SP, Arizona Diamondbacks - 63% rostered

Coming into 2025, the concern surrounding Pfaadt was whether he could get out left-handed hitters (LHH) consistently. If teams stacked lefties against Pfaadt, he was expected to struggle. Unfortunately, Pfaadt has struggled against both right-handed and left-handed hitters.

After 26 starts, Pfaadt has a 12-8 W-L record, 4.95 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and 113 Ks (140 innings). Pfaadt has an impressive number of wins given his ERA. But his 18.5% K% ranks in the 24th percentile and 46th among 58 qualified starters. Pfaadt's xFIP is noticeably better against righties.

Pfaadt's 4.07 xFIP and 4.16 SIERA on the year suggest his ERA is unlucky. Pfaadt has at least been able to limit damage by not walking many batters. His 5.1% BB% is the seventh lowest among qualified starters and ranks in the 92nd percentile.

While Pfaadt has been unlucky, he's still struggled against LHH. He ranks tied-sixth in wins among all pitchers, but it's difficult to make a case for that sustaining given his struggles. With his next two starts scheduled to be against the Brewers and Dodgers, it's tough to make a case for starting him.

Pfaadt is only a deep league option. Even then, you probably shouldn't start him until September. In shallower leagues, Pfaadt is a streaming option against easier opposition, especially against lineups that aren't so predominantly left-handed.

Matt McLain - 2B/SS, Cincinnati Reds - 61% rostered

It's been an interesting few years for McLain. He had an impressive MLB debut in 2023, hitting .290/.357/.507 with 16 home runs, 50 RBI, 65 runs, and 14 stolen bases in just 89 games. Then, a shoulder injury meant McLain missed the entire 2024 season.

McLain was healthy to start this year. That didn't last long as a hamstring strain in April sent McLain back to the IL. It was only a short stay, and he's remained healthy since then, playing 116 games. McLain's numbers haven't been too bad, with 11 homers, 40 RBI, 58 runs, and 16 steals.

The problem has been McLain's slash line. He's hitting .220/.300/.331 this year. If we compare McLain's Statcast Profile this year to 2023, we can see how far from his impressive debut he has been.

McLain's struggles have led to a loss of playing time recently. Given the Reds have been splitting time at second base between McLain and Santiago Espinal (who is hitting .247/.297/.288), it shows how poorly McLain has been. There's very little reason to hold onto McLain in fantasy leagues.

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