Dalton Kincaid Fantasy Football Profile - NFL Rookie Sleeper

Rob Lorge's fantasy football rookie analysis for tight end Dalton Kincaid. Is this NFL rookie tight end a 2023 fantasy football draft sleeper or is just overhyped?

For the past two years, fantasy managers have longed for the Buffalo Bills to add another wide receiver if only to stop the dreadful Gabriel Davis debate. Sadly, it appears we’ll all be stuck with that one for another year.

However, it’s not like the Bills didn’t add anyone offensively. They did draft tight end Dalton Kincaid out of Utah. While he may not be listed as a receiver, make no mistake, that’s the primary reason Buffalo selected him.

He is as widely and almost universally said to be the best pass-catching tight end in the draft and some draft analysts believed he was the best pass-catcher in the entire draft, period. We’ve all heard the history on rookie tight ends, but can Dalton Kincaid buck that trend? Let’s dive in and please use promo code "BOOM" for 10% off of any premium purchase.

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Dalton Kincaid Prospect Profile

Dalton Kincaid started his collegiate career at San Diego in 2018. Despite playing just one year of high school football, it took the red-shirt freshman very little time to make a name for himself.

He scored 11 touchdowns on just 24 receptions, racking up 374 yards in the process. He averaged 15.6 yards per reception and displayed elite athleticism for his size. He was an immediate matchup nightmare for opposing defenses.

With a year of seasoning underneath his feet, Kincaid fully broke out the following season. He was the focal point of the San Diego offense, finishing with 44 receptions, 835 yards, and 8 touchdowns. He was a big play waiting to happen, averaging 19 yards per reception. He finished with 17.3% of the team’s receptions, 23.3% of their passing yards, and 25% of the team’s passing touchdowns. Following the season, Kincaid transferred to Utah.

He hardly played in 2020, but Kincaid picked up in 2021 where he finished at San Diego. He had 45 targets, 36 receptions, 510 yards, and 8 touchdowns. He flashed elite efficiency, finishing with a 2.09 yards per route run average and 14.2 yards per reception. He also proved very difficult to bring down in the open field, averaging 4.3 yards after contact per reception. According to PFF, he had an 83.2 receiving score, which was the 11th-highest in the country among tight ends.

Not hyperbole to say Dalton Kincaid has some of the best ball skills I've ever seen from a TE prospect

- 2 drops on 108 catchable last two seasons
- 16/27 in contested situations

Legit 1st Round talent at a position I don't often advocate for that early pic.twitter.com/Ju1RPtJJpO

— Mike Renner (@mikerenner_) February 26, 2023

Kincaid saved his best for last. In 2022, he had 93 targets, 70 receptions, 890 yards, and 8 touchdowns. No other tight end in the country finished with more receptions.

New Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid finished last season with 70 receptions.

Since 2017, Kincaid is 1 of just 4 tight ends to hit this milestone 👀

He also had more Broken + Missed tackles than anyone in the Top-30 in the same group.#BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/FEKA3WtUqF

— SIS Football (@football_sis) May 3, 2023

According to PFF, he had a 91.8 receiving score, the very best among tight ends. His 2.42-yard-per-route run average was second to only Michael Mayer (2.44). Sports Info Solutions credited him with a broken or missed tackle on 29% of his receptions, which was the third-best rate among tight ends.

His 34.1% college dominator in his final season ranked in the 94th percentile according to PlayerProfiler and due to his sophomore season at San Diego, he has a breakout age of 19.9 (81st percentile). Anyway you look at it, Kincaid is one of the best receiving tight end prospects in recent memory. Lance Zierlein, the lead NFL draft analyst at NFL.com had this to say about him,

“Move tight end whose premium talent as a pass-catcher will be the primary focus for evaluators. Kincaid is a fluid route runner with the athleticism and play speed to create mismatches against lesser coverage. Impeccable ball skills and sticky hands allow him to tilt 50/50 contested throws in his favor. Kincaid can manage a more extended route tree, allowing calculating play-callers to open up the entire field and stress coverages.”

Kincaid was used as a focal point of his collegiate team’s passing offense throughout his his career and there’s no shortage of highlights during his time at San Diego and Utah.

We should be viewing Dalton Kincaid as the Bills’ primary Slot WR and not just a TE. Expect more 12 personnel in 2023 and paired with Josh Allen he will eat. #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/vgpmoGtNRQ

— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) April 28, 2023

Despite the recent failures of rookie tight ends, someone with Kincaid’s collegiate profile should not be one that’s avoided, especially considering his tremendous landing spot. The Buffalo offense will give him a great chance to make fantasy football noise despite his rookie status and that’s because despite being listed at tight end, he’s really just a big slot receiver and those are the kind of “tight ends” fantasy managers should want to target.

Dalton Kincaid Rookie Expectations

Since drafting Kincaid, general manager Brandon Beane has talked a lot about Kincaid being used in the slot. He stated that while the team will use a lot more 12-personnel this year with Kincaid, it’ll be what he coined as “11.5-personnel”. For fantasy managers, this is exactly what we want to hear.

The table above shows the total for the Bills’ No. 3 receiver. In 2020 and 2021, that player was Cole Beasley. In 2022, they ended up rotating in Isaiah McKenzie, Khalil Shakir, and Jamison Crowder. However, fantasy managers can certainly see the appeal of those kinds of numbers if attached to a tight end as opposed to a wide receiver.

Dalton Kincaid Expected To Line Up More As Receiver https://t.co/NXdhuaiWb8

— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) May 9, 2023

Despite his rookie status, early Best Ball drafters aren’t being deterred. They’re recognizing the upside in the Buffalo offense and they’re drafting him as such. This isn’t something that’s likely to change over the summer either.

Dalton Kincaid is currently TE11 in ADP at 115.6 overall

Aka the 2nd highest ADP for a rookie TE since 2017 https://t.co/CU9VT2cb36

— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) May 14, 2023

Gabriel Davis, the No. 2 receiver for Buffalo has never had a season with a target share north of 18.5% and has never averaged more than 6.5 targets per game. He’s never had a season with more than 100 targets or 50 receptions, which is all to say, his status as Josh Allen’s No. 2 target is far from etched in stone.

This creates a situation filled with opportunities and plenty of upside for Kincaid. Is it possible for him to become Allen’s No. 2? Yes, and that’s the kind of upside we should be salivating over.

Over the past three seasons, the Bills have averaged 620 pass attempts per season with a high of 655 and a low of 574. Since 2020, they rank seventh in team pass attempts, fifth in passing yards, and third in passing touchdowns. This is a very fantasy-friendly offense.

With the high passing volume in Buffalo, even a 14% target share on their three-year average equals 87 targets, which would’ve tied for eighth among tight ends.

Kincaid absolutely has top-10 upside despite his rookie status. The confines of the Buffalo offense will be very kind to him. It certainly doesn’t hurt that the team is desperate for a consistent pass-catcher behind Stefon Diggs.

With Davis largely operating as the team’s downfield threat, don’t be surprised if Kincaid becomes a favorite target of Allen in the short to intermediate part of the field. His size and speed is going to be a mismatch for teams when he’s lined up in the slot, which could create some week-winning weeks at a fantasy football position that has very few impact performers.

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