RADIO
Welcome back to “The Kick-Off” and welcome to 2023! As the season dwindles down, many clubs will be focused on any trophies left at stake, Champions League, Europa League, FA Cup, etc and it will cause squad rotation and or rest. The Starting XI will remain fluid for those specific clubs, while others may try new formations as their league positions cement for next season.
The top two favorites this weekend are Tottenham -220 vs AFC Bournemouth and Everton +105 vs Fulham. I will guide you through this five-match slate starting at 10:00 A.M. EST.
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or on “SLACK”.
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The Kick-Off - EPL Matchweek 31
Goalies
Hugo Lloris- DK $5.6K || FD $13
Opponent - AFC Bournemouth
Surprise surprise, a goalkeeper against Bournemouth is being highlighted. After being out for approximately two months, Lloris made a return to the net a bit over a week ago and in two appearances since then, he has won once, while making 8 saves and conceding two goals. Bournemouth is currently being outscored 4 to 7 in their last five away matches and over the season, they are the sixth-worst in Goals For Per 90 – 0.93 – and they are the worst in Big Chances Created For Per 90 – 0.93 –. Tottenham themselves are outscoring their opponents 10 to 2 in their last five home matches. All of this adds up to Lloris potentially seeing a clean sheet, however, his ceiling will be limited due to the low shot volume from Bournemouth.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Johnstone (DK $4.9K || FD $10), Steele (DK $4.7K || FD $11)
Forwards
Harry Kane-DK $10.3K || FD $22
Opponent - AFC Bournemouth
Harry Kane is a possessed man with 5 goals in his last four appearances. If we date it back to his last five matches in domestic play, he has 5 goals, 18 shots, 2 created chances, 6 crosses and 2 tackles. As previously stated above, Tottenham is drastically outscoring their opponents, while Bournemouth is the complete opposite. Furthermore, the Cherries are the worst in Shots Against Per 90 – 16.56 –, Created Chances Against Per 90 – 12.2 – and Goals Against Per 90 – 1.8 –. In the majority of contests this weekend on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Harry Kane will be one of the highest-owned players, making him a must.
Demarai Gray- DK $8.5K || FD $15
Opponent - Fulham
We are extremely lucky that DraftKings reverted back to their old roster system, granting us Demarai Gray as a duel-position eligible player this weekend. With the lack of ‘viable’ strikers on the slate, Gray fits the bill perfectly thanks to his increased role with the Toffees. Gray has begun to eat into the majority share of set-pieces after Dwight McNeil oversaw that role for most of the season. In Gray’s last five fixtures in domestic play, he has 1 goal, 9 shots, 9 created chances, 18 crosses, 7 corners, 8 tackles and 1 interception. Everton has struggled all season, however, Fulham is without their star striker currently and they have begun to falter in form. Defensively, they are not the worst nor the greatest, however, they are the third-worst club in Big Chances Created Per 90 – 2.16 –. They are clearly giving up high-danger chances to clubs, but they are doing well enough to keep the ball out of the net. It is only a matter of time before teams start to crack the code. Can Gray and the Toffees figure it out this weekend?
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Eze (DK $8.3K || FD $17), Mbuemo (DK $7.5K || FD $14)
Midfielders
Ivan Perisic- DK $7.4K || FD $13
Opponent - AFC Bournemouth
The insanely over-owned Tottenham stack is almost completed, but we still need a midfielder and a defender. We will go with Ivan Perisic for the midfield. Perisic has been a massive help to Tottenham’s offensive success since his arrival from Inter Milan of Serie A. In his last five appearances – 3 starts – in domestic play, he has 1 goal, 1 assist, 8 shots, 6 created chances, 33 crosses, 9 corners, 9 tackles, 2 interceptions, 10 clearances and 3 blocks. That is quite the amount of production coming from a duel-threat player – assists on both ends of the pitch –. Where his value really comes into play, is on FanDuel where he is still considered a defender, opening up a midfield/striker position for someone else. He may not get the clean sheet bonus – if Tottenham manages one –, however, he will do plenty elsewhere to easily maintain value against one of the worst defenses in the top flight.
James Ward-Prowse- DK $7.2K || FD $19
Opponent - Crystal Palace
Ward-Prowse’s salary is rather questionable on the slate, due to his overwhelming value and production for Southampton. The midfielder does it all and despite his clubs’ consistent failure this season, he has managed to shine. In his last five matches in domestic play, he has 1 goal, 9 shots, 11 created chances, 31 crosses, 21 corners, 9 tackles, 7 interceptions and 9 clearances. Crystal Palace has found form under returning bench boss Roy Hodgson, however, their defense is not the greatest, leaving plenty of chances for Ward-Prowse to at the minimum hit value.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Olise (DK $9.8K || FD $16), Pereira (DK $7.7K || FD $15)
Defense
Pedro Porro- DK $6.3K || FD $11
Opponent - AFC Bournemouth
To complete the Tottenham stack, we have the number one fullback on the slate Pedro Porro and for many reasons. The main reason, however, is that he is playing at home against Bournemouth. The Cherries are the sixth-worst in Goals For Per 90 – 0.93 –, as well as, the worst in both Crosses Against Per 90 – 24.93 – and Created Chances Created Against Per 90 – 12.2 –. This will fall in Porro’s favor with the wingback expected to slide into the right wing again. Through his last five matches – 4 starts – in domestic play, he has 1 goal, 1 assist, 9 shots, 9 created chances, 24 crosses, 3 corners, 7 tackles and 5 clearances.
Ben Chilwell- DK $6.4K || FD $12
Opponent - Brighton & Hove Albion
The Chelsea starting XI is completely unknown due to playing midweek – 2-0 loss to Real Madrid –. Despite Chilwell playing in that match, he may start once again, now that he is suspended for the second leg of the fixture with Real Madrid in the Champions League. In Chilwell’s last five appearances in domestic play, he has 1 goal, 7 shots, 12 created chances, 37 crosses, 27 corners, 3 tackles and 5 interceptions. Brighton is not the easiest of clubs to play against, however, with the lack of creativity coming from Chelsea, Chilwell will be heavily relied on at both ends of the pitch.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Robinson (DK $4.8K || FD $12), Toti (DK $2.9K || FD $11)
Corner Takers:
Brighton & Hove Albion: Gross/March
Chelsea: Chilwell/James/Felix
Fulham: Pereira
Everton: McNeil/Gray
Crystal Palace: Olise/Eze
Southampton: Ward-Prowse
AFC Bournemouth: Tavernier/Billing
Tottenham: Perisic/Son
Brentford: Jensen/Mbuemo
Wolverhampton: Moutinho/Neto
Thanks for reading The Kick-Off! Good luck in all of your contests today!
